THE NFL REALITY CHECK
Let’s be real, you do not have time to waste, bets are awaiting. This is a quick glance at all 32 teams moving forward, when to BUY and SELL based on what we’ve seen so far. This is your quick and painless NFL REALITY CHECK —
PACKERS: 4-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
The Packers could have lost straight up (SU) to the Bears, though likely still cover and should not have covered vs the Broncos or Vikings. This team should be 2-3 ATS
When to Buy:
Their floor on defense was vs the Eagles and ironically their ceiling on offense too. They need Davante Adams or the right situation to buy, as this team has yet to put 4 quarters together, suggesting this team is not well coached / in sync yet, and may never be.
When to Sell:
If they are banged up and have too high expectations, time to go the other way. The Cowboys game was a snowball effect game due to a 14 points wing turnover. The Packers were still one-dimensional and inevitably let the Cowboys come back on them, much like they allowed the Eagles and Vikings to do. First half Packers is aggressive, where as second half Packers is conservative. Something to monitor moving forward.
BEARS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2.5
Bears should be 2-3 ATS or 3-2, fairly close either way you look at the road tilt at the Broncos.
When to Buy:
This defense at home in a motivated spot is a Bears play or pass. Why flirt with disaster? Unless they face an even better D, which let me know when that happens, i.e. they won’t.
When to Sell:
On the road vs. average to better than average teams, or if Bears are in a bad spot, fade. Raiders was a bad spot. At the Broncos was in a bad spot and verse an average team. This offense scares no one, except when facing bad teams like the Redskins and turnovers create nice fields for this bottom ten offense.
VIKINGS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 4-1
Vikings should be 4-1 ATS, but Cousins on the road vs a better than average defense in Green Bay brought this team to 3-2 ATS.
When to Buy:
Seeing that Mike Zimmer is the best coach in NFL ATS coming off a loss, especially in a favorable spot – buy that. Home vs Raiders after a bad loss. At a bad Giants team coming off a division road loss, this team dominated both games.
When to Sell:
Cousins on the road in a bad spot or vs an above average defense is a must avoid at all costs, especially in night games, and strongly consider going the other way. This offense is predicated on being able to run the ball and put Cousins in favorable spots, ideally from in front.
LIONS: 3-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-2
The Lions are the epitome of inconsistency. They should have easily won and covered vs Cards, then blew it in the final minutes and tied. Lions have lost and not covered against the Chargers, should have won straight up vs the Chiefs and handled the banged up Eagles with seeming ease. They could be 4-0 ATS, but due to what we think is poor head coaching by and large, they are 3-1 ATS, and very well could be 2-2
When to Buy:
Handicapping inconsistency is a dangerous game. This team is a wait and see. They have talent, but also injuries. They have overall impressed on their play making abilities on both sides of the ball and are capable of going toe to toe with the best teams in the right situations. If they play a below average QB, this secondary could feast.
When to Sell:
The moment this team is getting hype, sell, sell, sell. This team is much better as a no chance under dog than an heavy favorite.
SAINTS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
Saints should be right where they are 3-2 ATS, predictably not covering week 1 or 2, their yearly ritual to start seasons now going a dominant 3-0 since.
When to Buy:
The Saints are worth buying while playing well, as this is a momentum type team. They are well coached, strong defensively and capable even with Bridgewater on offense, who seems to be getting more comfortable by the week.
When to Sell:
Sell the Saints in bad spots as big favorites. This team tends to under perform with big expectations and outperform low ones.
PANTHERS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
Panthers should have covered week 1 against the Rams, and since Kyle Allen has come on they are an impressive 3-0, which brings this team to a cool 3-2 ATS so far.
When to Buy:
McCaffrey is on a tear, and Allen is still not being seen as an upgrade over Cam Newton. Buy until the market corrects, as right now this team has a strong defense, great running game and a capable QB.
When to Sell:
Once the market catches up to the reality that Kyle Allen is as capable if not more so than Cam was to start the season, or when a team will finally sells out to stop McCaffrey, that is a good time to fade the Panthers. They will become overbought soon, so get ready to fade the right number.
BUCS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
The Bucs have been a helter-skelter team, and covered and won their two games that they were the biggest under dog, beating Rams and Panthers as 7 and 9 point underdogs.
At 2-3 ATS, this team seems to play up and over as big underdogs and find a way to do the opposite in games they are favored or when the line is tight.
When to Buy:
So far, buy this team when they are most heavily doubted. When they are laying 7 or more, that would indicate a strong buy signal.
When to Sell:
If this team is favored or the line feels too short, be wary. Winston is a mistake machine, so there is too much boom or bust with this fickle team right now to trust them in close, competitive games.
FALCONS: 1-4 ATS
ATS Should be: 1-4
Not only are the Falcons 1-4 ATS, they have looked outright bad in 4 of their 5 games so far. Their offense has been clunky with a porous O-line and their defense is once again one of the worst in the league.
When to Buy:
This team is seemingly due, starting next week at Arizona, but even more so when they come back home. The loss to the Titans was a fluky snowball game, missing a few 4th and ones while driving, so it looks less competitive than it was, and against Houston, Watson tore them up because he was not pressured. The only thing to watch for is when the coach is about to be fired.
When to Sell:
Most scenarios on the road, don’t touch with a 10 foot pole as we saw at Houston. This team has under performed on offense, so if playing a capable defense, it could turn into a long day for this struggling Falcons team.
EAGLES: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Eagles should be 3-2 ATS, but instead are 2-3, a predictably slow start for this team with a finally healthy-ish Carson Wentz.
When to Buy:
This team looks dominant at times and dormant at others, so very much a situational team, keying on their injuries. Banged up at Falcons they let that game go, then on the road at Green Bay, they got back most their weapons and piled the points on.
When to Sell:
The most obvious points to sell have been when this team is banged up, like they were against the Lions and Falcons. When a team has so much talent on both sides of the ball, best to avoid them when their backups are filling up the box score.
COWBOYS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
Cowboys are right where the Cowboys would be, beating up on bad teams and under performing against good teams, at 3-2 ATS.
When to Buy:
So far the buy signals for the Cowboys are against bad teams. This defense impressed against lowly competition and has been missing tackles ever since. At least they do have the talent to correct some of their defensive woes. A key offensive lineman being out doesn’t help, but Dak has played better than expectations, so look for the Cowboys to rebound in certain spots, likely at home.
When to Sell:
When the Cowboys are getting over hyped, which they were after week 3, fade. This team is at its best when forgotten or left for dead, as they do have immense talent.
REDSKINS: 1-4 ATS
ATS Should be: 0-5
Skins should be more competitive than they are first and foremost. This team is in transition, the players knew it, the owner knew it and now the head coach is gone. They should be 0-5 ATS, but back door covered in week 1.
When to Buy:
Buy the skins? Never. Kidding. To be fair, this is a team that has more talent than the Dolphins and so will eventually surprise if can just play four quarters of consistent football. And this seeming Gruden-less dumpster fire played Eagles, Cowboys, Bears and Patriots, along with a collegiate level enthusiasm behind the Giants team after Danny Dimes took over to finally get Gruden fired.
When to Sell:
There is only one time to sell, and that is if Haskins is QB, otherwise that ship has sailed. Skins already quit on their coach, and now he’s gone, so the only direction is up. Again, unless Haskins takes over. He is not ready to be an NFL QB and needs at least another year to even see if he is capable of leading a team in the NFL.
GIANTS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-1 (Read on and see why)
Eli Manning should have been put out to pasture two years ago, so let’s nix those first two games altogether. ATS the Giants should be 2-1, as Daniel Jones led this team from behind to beat the Bucs straight up, and did enough early against the Skins to put a nail in Jay Gruden’s coffin. Then reality hit when the rebounding Vikings came to town.
When to Buy:
It’s going to be hard to buy the Giants other than in favorable spots. They are only able to ride momentum at this point, because they are banged up and bad….the dreaded double B’s, see poor Jets. A buy signal is an egregiously high line based on the relative competition.
When to Sell:
Playing a team with a formidable coach and defense, it’s time to fade this mostly untalented squad. The Giants are in legitimate rebuild mode, and so this is going to be a volatile year for them to try some things to see what sticks. Obviously DJ, Saquon and Engram are here to stay.
49ERS: 3-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 4-0
Weirdly, the 49ers should be 4-0 ATS and it’s really not even close. Grant it, they’ve played a relatively easy schedule in favorable spots so far. Instead, they fumbled away a cover at home against Mason Rudolph’s Steelers and sit at an impressive 3-1 ATS even so.
When to Buy:
So far, this team is outclassing less than stellar competition. So, if the matchup is in their favor, it’s 49ers or bust. Ideally in a favorable spot as well, but this team is loaded with talent, improving weekly and has a top 5 coach.
When to Sell:
This is a tricky one, because we’ve yet to see this team get truly tested by a formidable opponent. If being Nostradamus, that five hundred turnover game at home against the Steelers won’t be the last time we see this team give spreads away by giving up the ball. If favorited against good competition, would look to fade.
SEAHAWKS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3 ATS
Cannot afford to bet against Russel Wilson at bad numbers, he’s just too good. That said, this team is only 2-3 ATS so far, and it’s mainly because their defense, especially secondary are just bad. Because of this, this team does not even have any home field advantage, as should be 0-3 straight up against Saints, Rams and Bengals.
When to Buy:
When Russel Wilson gets points, it’s very simple. Maybe the simplest handicap of them all. Buy.
When to Sell:
When Seattle is favored against better than bad teams, do not touch with a ten foot pole and consider the opposite. This defense has one good game, against the Cardinals.
RAMS: 4-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
The Rams are an enigma this year, as they dominated the Saints at home but got torched by the Bucs. Both sides of the ball have been a bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and so they have outperformed, but should be a legitimate 2-3 ATS.
When to Buy:
Because they’ve been an enigma so far, it’s not an easy team to predict, but they have the talent to play with anyone in the NFL and the coaching to match. As we’ve seen, this defense can shut down teams or give up a 50 spot. This offense can put up 500 yards or have 5 turnovers. This suggests this team is all situational. If in a motivated spot, i.e. prime time, undervalued or getting a banged up squad, they are worth a consideration.
When to Sell:
The moment the market is too high on this team, sell them. The same can be said last year. Each time their lines seemed to creep up to 7 or so vs worthy competition, it was about time to fade. This team should find more consistency as the season progresses, as they are too talented not to, though Gurley and Goff are on a down year this year, so this isn’t the Rams from last year even.
CARDINALS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Cards are an impressive 3-2 ATS, getting handled at home 2.8 out of 3 games, that big comeback against the Lions giving them the cover and nearly an outright victory.
When to Buy:
Against what we would consider playoff teams, Panthers and Seahawks, this team got beat to a pulp. Against what we think is less than average teams, Lions, Ravens and Bengals, this team played tough, dominating the Bengals, keeping it close against the Ravens and coming back against the Lions, the exact pecking order you would expect. Like a pigeon messenger in Game of Thrones, this may prove to be a clear message.
When to Sell:
The better the team they face the bigger the fade. This team is just talent deficient, besides a couple pieces. Do note, Patrick Peterson comes back after week 6, and so that could prove to be a boost to the defense and improve morale of the team.
CHIEFS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Chiefs have been exactly what most thought, amazing on offense and liable on defense. ATS they should be 3-2, but instead are 2-3 due to an offense that hasn’t finished games and a defense that is still more than suspect.
When to Buy:
The Chiefs, like the Rams are a bit of an enigma at this point and the biggest thing to watch is Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. If he is healthy, once this team gets Tyreke Hill back, that should help smooth out some chinks in the armor, and so look for lines under 6 when possible.
When to Sell:
This team, so far, cannot be trusted giving up big lines. Especially while banged up. Their defense just isn’t good enough to lock down teams, and this offense is explosive at times, like when they scored 4 TDs in 10 minutes in Oakland, but then did not score another point the rest of the game, before or after.
CHARGERS: 1-4 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
The Chargers should be 2-3 ATS, but alas they are 1-4. Injuries to an already due to take a step back team has put a damper on some talented pieces.
When to Buy:
When the Chargers are in an underdog role, that’s a clear buying indicator, as this team has fire power and can put up points. Their injuries to the secondary and leaning too heavily on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekkler should change, and if get even a little more healthy, this could be a second half team as we’ve seen with Rivers led Chargers teams in previous years.
When to Sell:
If injuries keep stacking, keep finding ways to sell. They don’t have the safeties or the coaching to play consistent for 4 quarters, so be ware buying into this team when laying too many points, except against the Dolphins, but that goes for everyone these days.
RAIDERS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Raiders have been impressive despite their less than average talent. Their wide receiver group is poor at best and their defense is a year away from having enough talent to be serviceable. Getting blown out twice, but finding themselves in favorable situations three other times has this team at a suspicious 3-2 ATS, in part because they have been miss-priced in favorable spots.
When to Buy:
It’s fairly clear at this point that this Raider squad is going to have a tough time closing out games, much like last year. And though they are marginally better this year, so far they’ve out schemed opponents who were in bad spots to start games. This team is entirely situational, henceforth.
When to Sell:
Sell this team against good steams in clear motivated spots. They looked like a bottom ten team in their losses to the Chiefs and Vikings, which suggests they just aren’t on the same level playing field all things considered.
BRONCOS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
ATS the Broncos are about right, but they likely should have picked up another win or two ATS vs the Jags at home and on the road in Green Bay, bringing them to 3-2, as they likely should not have covered against the Bears.
When to Buy:
Even though this team started the season 1-4, they have played competitive football more often than not. Their offense is better than the market thinks, and the coaching staff should be getting this team more consistent as the season progresses, unless the players turn on the coaches of course, which is possible with another couple losses. When undervalued and in a capable spot, consider buying.
When to Sell:
The Broncos are a middling team that are capable of getting about 20 points a game and giving up about 20 points give or take. This suggests that if the Broncos are not getting enough points, like 2, best to steer clear.
PATRIOTS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 4-1
The Pats should be 4-1 ATS, but somehow the Jets covered. Grant it, the Pats played their starters and swung for the fences in that game, when they surely did not need to. Might have saved some of their player’s health if they took the foot off the peddle two quarters prior.
When to Buy:
The Pats at home and not giving up too many points is worth the position. If they are playing a beat up team or bad defense it is Patriots or bust. This defense is too good to give up too many points beyond 20.
When to Sell:
As we saw vs the Bills, playing on the road against a really good defense is a must sell, or for that matter a good defense at all. If can slow down the Pats run game and dink and dunk, a team can be successful against this team, who will likely be heavily favored in most games this year.
BILLS: 4-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
Bills are a faulty 4-1 team. They are all defense and a few run plays on offense. 4-1 ATS, they should be about where they are, but easily could have not covered against the Jets and Titans, and could have covered against the Bengals.
When to Buy:
The Bills as an underdog or a team that can’t compete defensively, is a good buy signal.
When to Sell:
Because the Bills struggle mightily on offense, if they are facing a competent team, or a team that is capable and laying points, it’s a good idea to fade the Bills or at least stay off completely. Josh Allen cannot be trusted.
JETS: 1-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 1-3
Injuries piling up on an already suspect team has been a recipe for disaster. They fluke covered the Patriots, and at 1-3 ATS, this team is one of the worst in the league until they can get healthy.
When to Buy:
Actually, when Darnold and some of their key defensive pieces come back, look to buy. The line will likely not adjust accordingly and so will probably get a good price on Jets who will be desperate to just play some decent football for once.
When to Sell:
As long as Luke Falk is their QB, stay far away. He has shown nothing so far, and so why get cute? Fade Falk.
DOLPHINS: 0-4 ATS
ATS Should be: 0-4
Dolphins should be 0-5 ATS, assuming they lost to the bye week. Bad joke, but this team traded away starter after starter and is left with the worst talent of any team in the NFL
When to Buy:
The good thing is this team bottomed out to start the season, and so should modestly improve over the course of the year. The issue is, there just is not a lot of talent. I wouldn’t trust this team until they show they can play a close game against a bad team, and that we should find out against the Redskins.
When to Sell:
Sell until there is something to buy. Sometimes companies go bankrupt, sometimes planes go down. Not often, but why anticipate something we’ve yet to see any of. Keep selling until proven otherwise.
TEXANS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
Texans are 3-2 ATS and are right where they should be. They lost to the Panthers and did not cover against the Jags as heavy favorites, but were able to pull away from banged up defensive teams like the Falcons and Chargers.
When to Buy:
This team as an underdog is very intriguing, and against banged up or bad defenses, as we’ve already seen.
When to Sell:
So far, this team has been a sell sign against good defenses, especially as favorites. Because of the new offensive pieces and below average offensive line, this team is prone to struggle against good defenses.
COLTS: 4-1 ATS
ATS Should be: 4-1
The Colts are 4-1 ATS and are exactly where they should be. As TY Hilton said after Luck retired, this is the best team he’s been on, which says a lot even without Luck. Brissett does not make many mistakes and when healthy, this well coached team can produce the consistency to play with anyone.
When to Buy:
The Colts have had one dud, the first game they were missing four to five key pieces on their team. The very next game they went on the road and won straight up, without many of the same pieces. The market overreacted to playing the Raiders at home with an injured team, laying 7, but besides that the market has been too low on the Colts all season. If that continues, or shows itself in spots again, that is a buy signal.
When to Sell:
Sell the Colts when the cluster injuries take precedent and are in a bad spot, both of which happened against the desperate Raiders.
JAGUARS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Jags are 3-2 ATS and should be that. This team has been more consistent on offense with Gardner Minshew than their defense, who has had two games where they could not stop the other team, KC and Carolina.
When to Buy:
The Jags defense has been inconsistent, in part due to the Jalen Ramsay drama, but if playing a less than competent QB and offense, like the Titans, Broncos or a struggling Texans O-line that is a good time to buy Jags, as this offense with Minshew can do enough to win games straight up in these type situations.
When to Sell:
The Jags have struggled against teams that have dynamic backfields or competent offenses. They dominated defensively teams they know in their division, but coaches are out scheming this Jags defense who are not as familiar. Out of division, out of conference, fade Jags.
TITANS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
Titans are 2-3 ATS and that’s right where they should be. They struggled against good defenses, and need to play from ahead to have a decent chance at winning.
When to Buy:
When this team gets to play a struggling team, or a team in a bad spot, it could be good to buy this defense first, run heavy team. The issue with this Titans team is they play it close to the vest.
When to Sell:
Sell the Titans when they are playing teams that are as tough or tougher than them. Bills, Jags and Colts are all arguably as tough or tougher than the Titans, where as the Browns and Falcons are what some may call soft. Sell against tough teams. In their losses, the Titans have scored 17, 7 and 7. Might be time for a QB change.
BROWNS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Browns are another helter-skelter team because of the coaching staff and new pieces. They are still finding themselves and so their 2-3 ATS is about right, though they had every chance to cover and maybe even win against the Rams at home.
When to Buy:
So far this team has dominated the Jets and Ravens, so it’s still early to lay into confident buy signals, but playing teams with suspect secondaries looks to be good times to buy.
When to Sell:
This Browns team getting a big head is perfect time to go the other direction. Week 1, turnovers and penalties proved to turn into a blowout, and after dominating the Ravens the same thing happened in week 5 against the 49ers. And to be fair, week 3 the same deal against the Rams.
RAVENS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 1-4
This team should be 1-4 ATS and should be 2-3 straight up. I think we should entirely dismiss their first game against the Dolphins as completely meaningless, and so this team would be 0-4 ATS if that were the adjusted case.
When to Buy:
The time to buy the Ravens is verse a bad defense and getting points, like against the Chiefs, because Lamar Jackson running the ball late, like the Russel Wilson effect, can help boost the odds of getting late scores to cover.
When to Sell:
Sell this team the moment their line feels too high against better than bad competition. Bad teams have little to no chance against the Ravens straight up, but marginal teams to good teams could feast on this rebuilding defense with ease all day, home or away, as we saw in KC and at home against the Browns.
STEELERS: 3-2 ATS
ATS Should be: 3-2
The Steelers should be 3-2 ATS, and because of their QB situation they are a wait and see team for now.
When to Buy:
Once we know what this offense is due to their QB situation, we consider buying the Steelers, or if playing a bad team, their defense can carry them like against the Bengals. The defense should keep them in games, and their sack rate should lead to turnovers, so matchup friendly bad offensive lines would be worth playing.
When to Sell:
Sell this team if the Steelers are playing a strong team, see the Patriots week 1. Their defense can get exposed against good QB play and strong offensive schemes, and so with a rebuilding offense this team can fall into a hole fast.
BENGALS: 2-3 ATS
ATS Should be: 2-3
As bad as the Bengals have seemingly been, they could be 3-2 straight up. ATS, they should be 2-3 and they are 2-3. Their coach is one of the worst in the NFL, but this team is more talented than the bottomless Dolphins, Jets and Skins, at least at this point in time.
When to Buy:
Only if getting enough points against a mediocre team with a subpar defense, see Seattle, that’s it. Though Mixon and Dalton have found rhythm at times, which suggests playing a subpar defense gives this team a chance at a few upsets.
When to Sell:
Sell the Bengals in bad spots. The Steelers and Cardinals were desperate for wins and they took it to the Bengals.
Follow Zach @Golcondafund and Brett @nonrandomalpha on twitter, as this wraps up their thoughts on which teams to buy and sell moving forward. They will update this article at about the 2/3 mark of the season for the home stretch. Check out their Sportfolios articles and The Sports Trading Desk Podcast which can be found on Itunes or Stitcher every Sunday night / Monday morning for a first reaction recap and a look ahead to the next week’s lines.
