English Premier League 12/15/20
Welcome back to Karma Nation’s EPL Soccer preview article. Saturday was sub-par but Sunday Karma crushed GPPs and Cash. We don’t have to wait long for more EPL fun as we get a nice appetizer for Wednesday’s big 6 game slate with a little 2 gamer Tuesday. We get 1 game at 1pm and the other game at 3pm EST.
Wolves vs. Chelsea (-143)
Manchester City (-1111) vs. West Bromwich Albion
We get a little two game slate here; we see a massive home favorite in Man City vs. lowly West Brom and away favorites Chelsea at a struggling Wolves squad. With that being said, let’s dive into our game -by-game breakdown for more info.
Wolves vs. Chelsea-
Wolves sit 13th in the league after back to back defeats to Aston Villa and Liverpool, while Chelsea are currently 5th after stumbling away to Everton on Saturday. Wolves have struggled on offense since losing star forward Raul Jimenez to a scary skull injury, and will be without creator Joao Moutinho after getting red carded very late in the Villa match on Saturday.
Wolves:
Wolves are a good squad; they just seem to be struggling finding any offensive firepower after losing the aforementioned Jimenez and also Diogo Jota to Liverpool via transfer. Their attack currently is Pedro Neto ($18) who has 3 goals on the season, Daniel Podence ($16) only has 2 goals to his name but is a better open play value with 11 chances created on the season. Adama Traore ($11) has really taken a step back from his super sub status last season. His pace and strength are real threats but his finesse has not taken the necessary steps to make him a real worry. His pace alone allows him to create chances (8 last 3 games) but he does little else, as he has 0 goals and 0 assists on the season. Youngest Fabio Silva ($10) finally started vs. Villa and didn’t really look great… he struggled to get involved in the offense, registering just 1 shot on goal and 1 chance created in their 1-0 defeat. Things don’t get easier for any of these forwards against one of the best defenses in the Premier League, Chelsea. Defensively, this squad has had a lot of rotation; the top 3 priced defenders did not play on the weekend (Boly, Kilman and Ait-Nouri) Conor Coady ($8) remains the heart of their back line defense and will soak up all the clearances for this squad. Offensively they seem to really like former Barcelona man, Nelson Semedo ($8) who starts usually on the right and had a full game vs. Villa (9 clearances, 4 tackles, 1 shot on goal and a chance created. Value may come from Romain Saiss ($6) who started as a make-shift CB on the weekend and produced 7 clearances, 1 blocked shot, 3 interceptions and a shot on goal. Rui Patricio ($9) has not kept a clean sheet since October 30th vs. Crystal Palace… he’s allowed 8 goals in those 5 matches.
Chelsea:
Timo Werner ($20) remains extremely expensive and is not the main striker anymore. I should have followed my own words and faded him this past weekend… but I didn’t and got his pathetic 5.6 fpts. I think he is a straight GPP only play with better offensive plays coming from the other game. Mason Mount ($16) had a down game too, but his upside is still there since the set pieces are solely his at the moment. Not sure if it’s going to be Tammy Abraham ($18) or Olivier Giroud ($17) as the center forward of choice. Neither did much in their time last game and I’d guess its Tammy time for this match so they can keep everyone fresh as the holiday schedule starts up. Defensively, Reece James ($11) only went up $1… the guy remains the best fantasy option for the Blues and is one of the least expensive. He rattled the woodwork vs. Everton and had another shot on goal right before that as well on his way to 16.5 fpts. He has hit double digits in each of his last 5 matches. Don’t be surprised if Thiago Silva gets a rest and it’s either Fikayo Tomori ($10), Antonio Rudiger ($8) or Andreas Christensen ($7) as the second CB to provide some value. Eduoard Mendy ($11) has given up goals now in back to back matches, but still has decent scores. His ceiling is not crazy high as Chelsea doesn’t allow many shots to get through on goal. I think a CS/Win is a real possibility here, and Chelsea will look to bounce back quickly from the defeat at Goodison Park on Saturday.
Prediction: Wolves 0 – Chelsea 2
Manchester City vs. West Bromwich Albion-
City laid an absolute egg offensively on Saturday in what many consider the worst Manchester Derby of the modern era, a 0-0 tie. They were sound defensively though and extended their clean sheet streak to 6 games. Historically this matchup is very one sided… City has beaten West Brom 14 straight times!
City:
As I mentioned, the City defense is getting stronger and stronger… now if they can find some consistent offensive form, they could be a force to be reckoned with. I’d imagine we see a bit of rotation, as Pep Guardiola loves to rotate his front 3 and his fullbacks a lot. Kevin De Bruyne ($24) is the best player on this slate and most expensive by $3. He has been pretty hot/cold this season, as he has had 5 games of 20 or more fpts and then he’s had 5 games with less than 16 fpts. At $24 you need him to drop at least 30. Both Gabriel Jesus ($21) and Sergio Aguero ($21) may not feature as one is a rotation possibility and the other is just not ready to return from injury yet it seems. Riyad Mahrez ($18) played last game, and he too could be subbed but if he plays I like his upside coming off two down matches. Raheem Sterling ($19) could play the false 9 striker position again if Jesus sits, I never like him in that role but this matchup is too good to ignore him. Ferran Torres ($16) and Phil Foden ($15) would be great pieces to stack City with for cheap as I’d assume they get the start in this one. John Stones ($10) shot up a few bucks and probably isn’t worth it in this matchup, I’d prefer Kyle Walker ($8) since City should be able to attack all game. Ederson ($14) has the best odds to get a clean sheet and win clearly; his upside is limited as I doubt West Brom get more than 2-3 shots through on net.
West Bromwich:
Matheus Pereira ($17) is set to return after suspension but honestly, that news does very little to help West Brom’s chances here. Connor Gallagher ($15) is fine but he won’t have set pieces with Pereira back and he plays more defensive midfield than most players at his price point. Matt Phillips ($6) was in my GPP last week and did really well putting up 26.2 fpts for the same price. His assist and 3 chances created were very important to West Brom’s offensive action vs. Newcastle. I think this matchup is considerably harder but for $6 you could do worse. Semi Ajayi ($7) remains a cheap defender but even as a CB, West Brom plays a 5 at the back defense that sucks a lot of peripheral stats from the true center backs. He does have back to back 10+ fantasy point games, but not a high ceiling. Darren O’Shea ($9) is set to start after Kyle Bartley has been ruled out for two weeks, I view him similarly to Ajayi, decent but not a must play. Sam Johnstone ($7) has been a bright spot for this squad, as he has kept them in a lot of games. He has 21 saves over the last 5 games while allowing 9 goals, not elite numbers but for a side that is bottom of the barrel, he’s a GPP punt for sure.
Prediction: Manchester City 4 – West Bromwich Albion 0
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
