English Premier League 9/26/20
We are back with another action packed weekend of EPL games! 4 games on Saturday and 4 more on Sunday but there is a catch… they are all staggered start times as the EPL has decided to stay the current course of no fans through October. But you guys are here to read about the good news not the downer stuff, so let’s breakdown this 3 game main slate for Fanduel and Draftkings alike starting at 10am EST.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton (+110)
West Bromwich Albion vs. Chelsea (-278)
Burnley vs. Southampton (+130)
-A few very interesting lines here… we get all 3 games with AWAY favorites. Now yes, no fans certainly takes away some of the home pitch advantage but many of these games mean sleeping in a hotel and nothing is like sleeping in your own bed the night before a match. I also think it’s ridiculous that Southampton is an away favorite; they have looked horrible so far this season and Burnley is not a bad squad at all. But let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton-
The Premier Matchup of the day sees Everton, who look like serious competition this year, take on Crystal Palace, who have started out red hot as well. Everton, with the new additions of James Rodriguez and Allan really gelling quickly has seen them unlock some big scores. Yet, they are only slight road favorites mostly because Crystal Palace is a very good defensive squad, who are at their best at Selhurst Park. Both squads enter this match 2-0-0 on the young season with Everton scoring 6 and letting in 2, while Crystal Palace have notched 4 and only allowed the 1 goal so far. This looks like a great football match but maybe not as much for DFS purposes. The peripherals could be plenty but the goals could very well be scarce.
Wilfried Zaha ($19/$8000) has been a man on fire with 3 goals so far this season including 2 vs. Manchester United last weekend. Andros Townsend ($12/$7000) has been excellent as well with a goal and assist which already equals his output last season. (Injuries plague him.) Another attacking piece I am looking at is if Eberechi Eze ($11/$5900) gets a start, since in his limited time so far he has looked the part and has even had a share of set pieces. For Fanduel Cheikhou Kouyate ($9) is a great play as he should see plenty of clearances/blocked shots, and for both sites Tyrick Mitchell ($8/$3900) is still a good play against a team that does like a nice open game. Vicente Guaita ($9/$4300) is a great play in my opinion, even if he does concede 1-2 he should get 3-4 saves. Better GPP than Cash.
The Toffees are red hot and Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($20/$7400) is coming off a hat-trick against lowly West Bromwich Albion and now has netted 4 in 2 games. He seems to be the biggest benefactor from James Rodriguez ($16/$8400) and that’s where I’d start my Everton stack if that’s the route you take. Interesting how the prices are flip-flopped on the sites, mostly due to crosses being such a big part of James’ game. He is underpriced though on FD in my opinion and fits easily even if you don’t stack as a one off. Richarlison ($19/$8800) is a GPP play and should be lower owned due to DLC’s scorching hot start. Allan ($11) is interesting on FD as he has 9 tackles in 2 games for a nice floor (averaging over 12 fpts/game so far). On defense Lucas Digne ($14/$7300) has played very well so far this season and is the top “pay up” spot for me on this slate but not something I usually prioritize. On FD Michael Keane ($12) and Yerry Mina ($11) are both fine plays and affordable center-backs that should see plenty of work from an active Palace squad. I never play Jordan Pickford ($11/$5200) but hey, he’s behind a solid defense.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – Everton 1
West Bromwich Albion-Chelsea-
West Bromwich Albion:
This team has had a VERY tough start to their Premier League having to face Leicester City then Everton and now Chelsea in their first 3 games… ouch. They have yet to rise to the challenge and very few pieces interest me this weekend. Mattheus Pereira ($13/$7600) looked good at times vs. Everton, contributing a goal and an assist but also looked lost off the ball most of the time. Grady Diangana ($12/$5000) is the other player I think is actually good and scored the opener last time out; he has looked lively out wide and will be difficult to stay with as pace is his game. Defensively I have no interest in anyone really as they play a back five and spread out most defensive stats. Although… Branislav Ivanovic ($9) revenge game is interesting. Sam Johnstone ($6/$3800) has a chance to make value if he can rack up 4-5 saves and is worth a punt if you need it.
My Blues looked overmatched vs. Liverpool and Andreas Christensen’s American Football-esque tackle and subsequent Red Card proved that they were indeed the weaker side to start the season. But have no fear Chelsea supporters, better days are arriving soon as Thiago Silva debuted mid-week, Kai Havertz had a hat-trick in that mid-week cup game vs. Barnsley and Hakim Ziyech and Christian Pulisic are both ramping up training recovering from injuries. Those last two certainly don’t help them this week but West Brom has looked completely helpless in their return to the Premier League. They have allowed 8 goals in 2 games… yeah that’s not good.
I think this is the game Timo Werner ($22/$9200) gets his first EPL goal and should be fairly chalky as the best goal scoring odds on the slate. Kai Havertz ($18/$7700) like I said earlier is coming off a hat-trick on Tuesday but could definitely be part of an early season rotation to keep legs fresh. Mason Mount ($16/$6700) has been lost so far this season but this is a great place to get on track and gives you an attacking piece at a decent discount. Jorginho ($14/$4900) still has penalty duty apparently but missed last weekend so maybe we see a change in that soon? If he loses that, he loses most of his upside. If Callum Hudson- Odoi ($12/$7500) gets a start I love him as a GPP shot. Defensively this should be a game that the fullbacks earn their pay. West Brom did press Everton well for more than a half and even scored 2 on 4 shots on goal. I see Reece James ($15/$6300) and Marcos Alonso ($14/$6000) are both very expensive and that limits my interest in them as I rather cheaper defensive pieces of Digne who has some sets as expensive defenders. Kepa Arrizabalaga ($13/$5800) is pricey and is AWFUL… new signee Edouard Mendy just arrived at Cobham for training and will soon be breathing down Kepa’s neck as first choice.
-Prediction: West Brom 0 – Chelsea 3
The Clarets lost 4-2 vs. Leicester in their first game of the season and looked shaky defensively without their stalwart and captain James Tarkowski. Tarkowski will remain out for this game as well but Southampton too, have been shaky at best losing both EPL games allowing 5 to Tottenham last weekend and they even lost to lowly Brentford in a Cup match. That means a bit more to me than Burnley’s lone loss. Jay Rodriguez is out for this game which does hurt their attack a bit but Chris Wood ($15/$6400) is my favorite play from this game and could be the GPP-Winning kind of play. Dwight McNeil ($14/$7200) didn’t quite look up to speed last time out but still managed an assist and is the second piece you want if stacking. Josh Brownhill ($9/$3200) is probably my top midfield/forward value play of the slate. At defense Jimmy Dunne ($9 on FD) should start again and even without his goal he put up a big score and could easily do so again vs. a squad that likes to force a lot of clearances and blocked shots. I like Charlie Taylor ($9/$4300) too if you are looking for a more all-around player. Nick Pope ($10/$4500) is my favorite goalie play and I almost always stack at least one defender with goalie on Fanduel.
My poor best bud Mikey Ryan, a long-time suffering Southampton fan had such high hopes for this season and it has started out like an absolute dumpster fire. Danny Ings ($20/$7800) almost won the Golden Boot last season and while he netted 2 vs. Tottenham, he seems to be on an island. James Ward-Prowse ($16/$8500) has not been as strong with his service but did have 3 shots on goal himself last game. The supporting cast is very limited in their upside but defensively the one bright spot has been Kyle Walker-Peters ($11/$4900) who has put together two very nice games to start the year but the other 3 have been poor to say the least and Alex McCarthy ($12/$5000) let in 5 on 6 shots last time out. Not a ton to love here but they are the slight road favorite.
-Prediction: Burnley 2 – Southampton 1
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel as well as checking out Luke’s Projection Portal (FREE!) https://dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/