This weekend the Cup series heads to Homestead. This is the first time this track isn’t the final race of the playoffs and where the champion is determined. Normally the drivers are racing here in mid-November when its cooler and less humid. Now they are racing here in mid June in the heat and humidity. Just like previous weekends there is no practice or qualifying so when they take the green flag, those will be the first laps they turn at full speed here this weekend. The strategy this weekend is to focus on two dominator builds and in some lineups find that third fringe dominator. This race will be run after the Xfinity race on Sunday and after two races on Saturday. Its an action packed weekend of racing so lets get started.
Kyle Busch (DK $10,100 FD $13,700)
After Wednesday, we all may feel a little jaded by Kyle Busch and that craziness that happened at the beginning of that race. However, Kyle Busch has some of the best track history here at Homestead and Kyle’s performances at tracks that compare well to Homestead has been really good as well. Over the last five races here, Kyle Busch has two wins and no finish worst then 6th. Kyle starts 4th on Sunday and has the potential to lead early and often.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $11,400 FD $13,300)
I was back and forth on Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr to write up. They both have great track history here with Harvick getting one win and finishing in the top 5 in the last 6 races and Truex finishing second in the last two races and winning in 2017. Truex is coming off two straight great perfomances and is great at 1.5 mile tracks. I may still go Harvick in cash more for the ownership then anything but I don’t think Truex should be looked over as a great tournament play Sunday.
Joey Logano (DK $10,700 FD $13,000)
Joey has been very impressive in recent history here at Homestead. He has one win and 5 top 5 finishes in the last five races. He starts outside front row and if you look at Denny Hamlins four of last five races here(he’s started one the pole like Sunday) he has only led more then two laps in those four races so I question if Denny will be able to lead again today giving an advantage to Joey Logano to lead laps early. I think that scenario makes Joey a great gpp play today as an early dominator option with top 5 finishing upside.
Matt DiBenedetto (DK $8,000 FD $8,000)
Matt rolls of the grid in the 23rd position on Sunday. He is a great place differential option for all formats with his upside. We have seen MDB do vefry well at tracks that are pair well with Homestead. Last year in the 95 car he finished 20th and this year of course he is in much better equipment. Dibenedetto has top 15 upside on Sunday and I may even be underestimating that.
Tyler Reddick (DK $7,300 FD $8,300)
Someone who I expect to a very popular option on Sunday is Tyler Reddick. Reddick has been the best rookie driver this season. Now we head to a track where he has just crushed the last two seasons in Xfinity earning him two straight championship in that series. Reddick lives to drive the high line which you saw in the Xfinity and Truck race was the fastest way around the track. I think a top 15 finish for Reddick is a lock and anything above that wouldn’t surprise me either as he has been impressive at tracks similar to Homestead this season.
Aric Almirola (DK $6,300 FD $8,500)
Aric has been an instant fade for me the last three races as he was top 12 in owner points and kept getting the 2nd place draw. After battery issues on Wednesday, he dropped out of the top 12 in owners points and now got drawn to start in the 21st position. The other intriguing thing about Aric is his price. He is only $6300 and is priced less the driver such as Ty Dillon and Daniel Suarez who have less upside. Aric has shown speed coming out of the layoff and think he has top 15 upside and is a safe place differential play on Sunday.
Any questions message me on twitter @davidjr831 and for access to my core plays and prop plays for Sunday’s races subscribe to the NASCAR package below.
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