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Last weekend, our core plays and article horses were good enough to get second place in the Santa Anita Top Ten contest, only five points shy of first place! Nevertheless, if you played along you cashed in to the tune of nearly $180! Let’s try to repeat that success today at Keeneland. Today’s contest is the first “double-up” tournament hosted by StableDuel. Simply put, the top 40% of finishers will double their money! There is no real incentive for finishing in the top 2% versus the top 39% in this format. We want to play it safe and target horses who are likely to earn points, and avoid the high risk/high reward horses when possible.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Panterita $8,000 – Race 2
Panterita is honestly not the likeliest winner in this race, but she’s probably the most likely horse to hit the board while still maintaining some upside to win. The scratch of the #4 Free makes the pace setup here somewhat murky, but I don’t trust either of the cheap speeds in this race. Panterita is a perfect one-for-one at this distance, and she is getting some subtle class relief today when dropping out of a starter allowance race. The other short priced horses Lady McKenzie and Double Oaked have both had enough chances at this level for me to look elsewhere.
Santa Guapa $8,500 – Race 5
Race 5 feels like one of the most challenging races on the entire card. While many will look to find a valuable bargain play in this field, I’m electing to trust the morning line favorite instead. None of the horses with experience seem to really be talented enough to win today, so I prefer a first time starter. Brad Cox has strong numbers with debut runners on turf, hitting at 21%, and he’s having himself a strong meet so far with 6 winners from 19 starters. The turf pedigree is a bit of a question mark, but I’ll lean on the strong connections for the Don Alberto homebred to get the job done in a race where many will go bomb hunting.
Mid Price Plays
Ballot Initiative $5,000 – Race 6
This race has a classic “the other Chad Brown” kind of feel to it. Many will flock to the #1 Dovima, but I’ve not been terribly impressed with her three starts so far. Instead, I’m leaning on the other Brown runner in Ballot Initiative. In the last year, Brown is 9/17 with three year old first time starters debuting in dirt sprint races, with 14/17 running in the money. For only $5,000 with an 82% chance to run third or better, Ballot Initiative offers value.
Smart Call $3,000 – Race 3
Smart Call has had enough chances that I’d normally look elsewhere in a race like this, but with three scratches in the race we are down to a seven horse field. Of those seven, two or three appear to have little to no chance, so I’m going to take a shot with Smart Call to hit the board. Feisty Bird will crush this field if able to repeat his February effort, but it’s concerning to see him claimed for $50,000, disappear for eight months, and return at such a low level tag. This feels like connections are just dumping the horse, so I’m leery to pay a steep price on a horse who may be unsound. Smart Call isn’t the likeliest winner, but he should run an okay race and be a strong contender to finish in the trifecta.
Value Plays
Regal Beauty $1,000 Race 7
Maybe I’m way off here, but in my opinion I think Regal Beauty is no worse than the second likeliest winner of this race. The $1,000 price tag feels like an absolute steal, and she is a must-use for me in all contests. Her last two races are ultra competitive against this field, and she inherits a great outside draw to stalk the pace and make a move into the turn. She has been a significantly improved horse since switching to the Calhoun barn and moving east, and I think she is the best value play on the card.
Sally O’Brien $750 – Race 4
Race 4 comes up light on entries, only drawing six horses for this first-level allowance. Therefore, Sally O’Brien only has to beat one horse in order to earn points. She was stuck behind a slow pace last out, so she ran deceptively well to pass two other horses to get up for second while never threatening the runaway winner. The other contenders in this race have big questions to answer, as Eres Tu enters off of a 500+ day layoff, Market Rumor has a trainer who is 0/24 and a 1/16 jockey, and Ria Munk is 1/14 lifetime who seems content to settle for minor awards. Given the questions surrounding the major players, I’ll take a shot with a value play in a short field.
