Welcome to Cap’s Corner, your go-to article series for all of your fantasy football needs! In this week’s edition, I’m breaking down my Top-5 fantasy QBs for the 2021 NFL season. This is purely a redraft article, so if you have dynasty fantasy questions, feel free to ask me questions in our Free Chat Room on Discord.
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Let’s dive into these rankings.
*ADP data provided by fantasypros.com 4 point per passing TD leagues*
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
You’re probably seeing this and thinking, “great, another article with Mahomes as QB1.” Don’t be too quick to dismiss this as a vanilla fantasy take. Mahomes has been and continues to be the consensus fantasy QB1 for a reason. He’s arguably the most talented quarterback in the NFL, smack dab in the middle of his prime, and on one of the best offenses in football. With centerpieces in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire surrounding him, Mahomes is set up for yet another year of fantasy dominance in 2021.
An underrated aspect of the 2021 Chiefs to note is the complete overhaul of their offensive line. After seeing Mahomes run for his life in the prior year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs made it a point this offseason to fortify the wall standing between a bull-rushing defense and their 500 million dollar man. The Chiefs went out and signed second-team all-pro guard, Joe Thuney, traded for Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and coaxed former pro-bowler Kyle Long out of retirement. Mahomes should be afforded more time in a cleaner pocket this season, which is dangerous for an opposing defense. If you want Mahomes on your fantasy roster this season you’re going to have to pay up, as he currently has a 2nd round ADP.
I have Mahomes statted out in my projections for 5,100 passing yards, 43 TDs, 7 INTs, 349 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. Good for 450.33 fantasy points in 4 points per passing TD leagues.
2. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is nipping on the heels of Mahomes in my rankings, mostly because of his massive fantasy upside as a running quarterback. Murray was on-pace to finish as the QB1 overall in fantasy, prior to his injury last season. After he came back from injury, Murray ran the ball less and his weekly upside was capped. I expect Murray to return to his running-dominant ways and return your fantasy teams to the promised land of a championship. With an improved supporting cast in A.J. Green (yes, even at this point of his career as a possession WR) and the electric rookie, Rondale Moore, I expect Murray’s passing numbers to increase from last year. Murray is another QB you’ll have to spend up on if you want him this year, as he currently has an ADP of a late 3rd or early 4th round pick. Frankly, at their ADPs, I prefer Murray over Mahomes this season.
I have Murray statted out in my projections for 4,641 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 783 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs. Good for: 441.38 fantasy points in 4 point per passing TD leagues.
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Before injuring his ankle in 2020, Dak Prescott was on pace to shatter almost every season-long passing record. A bad defense and stellar offensive weapons was leading to one of the most incredible early-season offensive performances the NFL has ever seen. With Prescott healthy again (beyond a nagging shoulder strain in camp) I expect him to pick up right where he left off in 2020. The offensive core of Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard, Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz is one of the best in the league. Pair that with the healthy return of what was once a dominant O-Line and Prescott should have every chance to succeed this season. Prescott’s ADP is currently ranging between from early 4th to the beginning of the 5th round.
I have Prescott statted out in my projections for 5,363 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 14 INTs, 316 rushing yards, and 6 rushing TDs. Good for: 435.81 fantasy points in 4 point per passing TD leagues.
4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
We’re keeping it in the NFC East with this next quarterback. No, this is not a hot take. If Hurts is the full-time starter for an entire NFL season, he has the potential to finish as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback. His value, much like Kyler Murray in years past, is being mainly propped up by his rushing upside. Do you think the Eagles’ offense will be bad? Do you believe the O-Line is abysmal? Is the defense still bad? If you answered yes in your head to any of those questions, then you should be loving Hurts’ fantasy prospects for the 2021 season.
Since Hurts is an adept runner, if any of those possibilities of bad offense, bad O-Line, or bad defense come true, then Hurts is going to need to run more often than not–which equals tons of fantasy points for your team. In the three full games Hurts started at the end of last season, he was the average QB1 overall for fantasy those weeks. We’ve already seen the upside, albeit in a limited sample size. With Hurts getting a healthy Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz back, a healthy O-Line, and new pass-catching weapons in rookies DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell; I expect Hurts to take a step forward as a passer this season. Hurts’ ADP is currently a late 7th and early 8th round pick, making him the cheapest of the options listed thus far.
I have Hurts statted out in my projections for 4,328 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 17 INTs, 902 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs. Good for: 421.89 fantasy points in 4 point per passing TD leagues.
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen broke out in a huge way last season for fantasy managers. Finishing as the QB2 overall, tumbling down to 5th overall might seem like a stretch for you. Let me preface this with the fact that I have Hurts and Allen separated by only 0.28 fantasy points overall in their rankings. So, you can flip a coin if you want and put Allen 4th overall for QBS this year. Allen has the upside to finish as the QB1 overall for fantasy, as does everyone else on this list. It’s easily within their range of outcomes. However, Josh Allen just got P A I D. Paid to the tune of 6-years and $258 million.
The Bills are going to want to protect their investment. It’s due to the new contract for the face of the franchise that I believe the Bills won’t want Allen running as much as he has in years past. I think they will try to balance out the offense by giving running backs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary more of the load Allen so often carries by himself. The last thing the Bills want is for Allen to go down with an injury. Allen’s ADP is currently in the middle of the 3rd round, so you’re going to have to invest significant draft capital if you want him on your team this year.
I have Allen statted out in my projections for 4,586 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 420 rushing yards, and 7 rushing TDs. Good for: 421.61 fantasy points in 4 point per passing TD leagues.
Thanks for reading! I hope these rankings help you in your fantasy drafts this season. For more fantasy football content, follow me @ClinicCapp on Twitter, or join me in our free discord chat room to have direct access to my personalized fantasy advice.
