Champions League Knockout Stage – 2/16/21
Champions League is back! We get two game slates for the next two Tuesday/Wednesdays, then a week break and then the return legs the next two weeks, so there is bound to be some serious action for the next month plus! The games both kick off at 3pm EST, so we will have all the info needed to make lineups without late swaps! So, let’s start by breaking down the current odds:
Barcelona (+120) vs. Paris Saint Germain
Red Bull Leipzig vs. Liverpool (+130)
For this slate we get a slight home favorite in Barca and a slight road favorite in Liverpool but this game is not being played in Germany, it is in fact being played in Budapest due to Covid restrictions. Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain
What a matchup of titans to start us off in the knockout rounds! Both are usually around in this competition until the end or close to it but only one will advance to the quarterfinals! Neither squad has been perfect this season, Barcelona sit 3rd in La Liga and was recently knocked out of the Copa Del Rey by fellow UCL knockout stage team Sevilla, while PSG sit 2nd in Ligue 1 behind Lille. But the biggest news here is that Neymar will be out for a while and might not even be back for the return leg in March.
Barcelona:
I feel like Barcelona are being disrespected here, they have the man, the myth, the legend, Lionel Messi ($24/$12300) on their side and he’s the most expensive player on the slate on both sites for a reason, he is truly the best in the world. The only issue with Barca is who to stack him with. Antoine Griezmann ($20/$6900) is the better play on DK in my mind but still viable on FD as he should be on the left or maybe even as a lone striker. Ousmane Dembele ($17/$8100) should be on Messi’s right and has been in fine form of late in league play. The value play of the squad would be Pedri ($15/$5200) who is projected to start in midfield but is listed as F only on DK just for your info. Pedri is not a big goal scorer yet in his career but he has always been active in building up the attack, and PSG are no defensive stalwarts. Defensively, Barca will be without their main man Pique again as he is just returning to training after a lengthy absence but they do have a well rested Jordi Alba ($13/$5400) to add some attacking boost on the left. The young American Sergino Dest ($10/$4400) is projected to grab the start on the right and has looked great at times in this competition but has not had the form of late in league play. If Samuel Umtiti ($7) gets the nod as a CB, I like his value as he will have plenty to deal with from PSG’s attack. Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($13/$5000) hasn’t kept a clean sheet in his last 5 starts in all competitions… I don’t think Tuesday will snap that streak. He’s a fade for me.
Paris Saint Germain:
No Neymar is a big loss for PSG, but the attack is still very potent with Kylian Mbappe ($22/$9900) leading the charge for the Parisians. No Angel di Maria is another big name that is out that hurts but Mauro Icardi ($19/$6300) should feature in his place and is a very capable striker. Moise Kean ($17/$5900) is a wildcard for this team; he seems like a nice value on DK and certainly can pop for a goal or assist pretty easily with the other big names around him. The PSG midfield should be a bunch of defensive-minded guys like Gueye, Paredes and Veratti with not a ton of DFS upside but in defense, Alessandro Florenzi ($8/$5000) is their best full back and is pretty cheap on FD but does seem to get subbed a lot. Presnel Kimpembe ($10) is a decent price for an underdog CB on FD. Keylor Navas ($7/$4600) is the most obvious GPP punt, he should see plenty of shots and if he can save 4-5 he could easily outscore the pricier keepers. If playing, I don’t mind Messi against him, just wouldn’t have more than 1 Barca.
Prediction: Barcelona 2 – Paris Saint Germain 1
Red Bull Leipzig vs. Liverpool-
Interesting odds on this one in my eye, Leipzig have won 4 straight matches, while Liverpool has lost 3 straight. Sure you could say the EPL is a stronger league than the Bundesliga overall, but you can only beat who they put in front of you and right now, Liverpool are bleeding goals, not just to Manchester City and Leicester City but to the likes of Brighton too.
Leipzig:
Like I said, Leipzig is coming into this one hot, and rested too. They last played on Friday and rested most of their core on top of that. This team is priced WAY down on FD and pretty low on DK too and I think they add to Liverpool’s misery Tuesday afternoon, even if they aren’t truly “home” since it’s in Budapest. I’m going to start with a defender since he is head and shoulders above most of the rest of the squad in upside. Angelino ($14/$6400) is a lock for me on both sites. He had 3 goals and 3 assists in the 6 group stage games… from defense (although he plays as a wing back or even as a midfielder a lot). Christopher Nkunku ($14/$8700) should take a most sets for this squad and is so underpriced on FD. Liverpool has been really poor of late and just gave up a free kick goal to Maddison on the weekend. Alisson has been shaky at best and I think Nkunku could be in for a big night terrorizing the Liverpool back line. Marcel Sabitizer ($13/$5900) has been playing really solid football for the last month plus and is in a great spot against this lineup. I think Dani Olmo ($18/$5600) is a little overpriced on FD but is a nice Sabitizer pivot on DK if you want the upside over the floor. I don’t think I’d look to play two defenders from Leipzig as Liverpool can still score with the best of them if they are given any openings, but Peter Gulacsi ($9/$4400) is a solid option that can open up some bigger names on the offensive end.
Liverpool:
Liverpool goes as Mo Salah ($21/$10800) goes but he needs help. He has 4 goals over the last 4 matches but the rest of the squad has only 1 over those 4 games. Sadio Mane ($19/$9300) has had a rough go of it lately, and this doesn’t get much easier against a squad that has given up 18 goals in 21 Bundesliga matches. One of the only Liverpool guys I like is Curtis Jones ($13/$4600), he’s been really good for this squad and it seems whenever he’s off the pitch, they fall apart. The defense is interesting; Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15/$6700) and Andrew Robertson ($14/$5900) are priced like they are the same players as last season… and that just isn’t the case. They aren’t nearly as prolific on the offensive end and are huge GPP leverage plays. Ozan Kabak ($8) just transferred from the Bundesliga (Schalke) to Liverpool on deadline day, so he is very familiar with Leipzig; he also just got his first start for the Reds on the weekend and played decently enough to earn another start aside Jordan Henderson as the CB pairing. Alisson ($11/$5100) is hard to trust right now, he’s given up 7 goals the last two starts.
Prediction: Red Bull Leipzig 2 – Liverpool 0
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFSKarma Soccer Lead)
