English Premier League 2/2/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown. We are back for some mid-week soccer with a 4 game slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Unfortunately, it is still a split slate with two games kicking off at 1pm EST, and the other two kicking off at 3pm. As always, let’s start by looking at some odds.
Sheffield United (-105) vs. West Bromwich Albion
Wolves vs. Arsenal (+120)
Manchester United (-222) vs. Southampton
Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace (+160)
We get Sheffield United as a favorite?! Wow, first time for everything I guess! Manchester United is the biggest favorites on the slate and should get the most ownership on both sites because of such. The other two games are fairly even and should be close affairs where the away squad is slightly favored. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Sheffield United vs. West Bromwich Albion-
Another massive relegation battle as last place Sheffield hosts 19th place West Bromwich Albion. Sheffield have looked very strong against the top two teams in the table, knocking off Manchester United at Old Trafford and only losing 1-0 to Manchester City at the Eithiad. While West Brom disappointingly drew 2-2 to fellow bottom dweller Fulham after getting thumped 5-0 by Manchester City.
Sheffield United:
I still have minimal interest in anyone from this squad. The player who had the best day DFS wise vs. City was Oliver Norwood ($11) with a measly 10.8 fpts. John Fleck ($10) is still someone I have some interest in but it isn’t much. Jayden Bogle ($8) had 6 tackles last time out and has been playing as a wing back which gives him some offensive upside as well. Jon Egan ($12) is as steady as they come for them in the back; he has double digits in 4 straight matches. Aaron Ramsdale ($11) is priced as Vegas odds, as the favorite and I don’t love that for his value to upside. Sheffield still can’t score, only 12 goals on the season but West Brom has given up 50 this season!
West Bromwich Albion:
I knew Matheus Pereira ($18) was a good play this weekend and I still didn’t go to that well. He’s the whole offense for the squad really, as he scored vs. Fulham to make it 4 in his last 4 games. Mbaye Diagne ($14) made his club appearance on the weekend and in the half he played, he got an assist and two chances created. I mentioned Darren O’Shea ($10) last time out since he was a double digit machine, with 8 straight games, and well he goes out and puts up 3.9 points to completely troll me. Kieran Gibbs ($9) has been really good as a wing back as of late with double digits in each of his last 6 starts. Sam Johnstone ($9) is one I keep thinking is better than his numbers show, but I may be changing my tune on that one, as he let in two questionable ones vs. the Cottagers. Good matchup here but the upside isn’t high enough for me.
Prediction: Sheffield United 1 – West Bromwich Albion 2
Wolves vs. Arsenal:
Arsenal was busy at the deadline, sending Ozil, Mustafi, Willock, and Maitland-Niles all out of the squad for good or for loan. Wolves brought in Willian Jose who was okay in his first start Saturday but sent Patrick Cutrone out on loan once again.
Wolves:
I thought that Wolves had turned the corner but they played another lackluster 90 minutes of football vs. Palace and dropped a 1-0 decision. Pedro Neto ($18) had a good game even in defeat with 17.9 fpts., he remains Wolves top threat offensively. I think the new addition of Willian Jose ($16) will pay off eventually, but not sure vs. Arsenal is the place. Adama Traore ($11), pace is king and Arsenal do NOT have pace in defense, he could cause them serious issues and could win a penalty or two even. Max Kilman ($9) is the value CB for this 3 at the back and has been playing really well of late. Rui Patricio ($8) is never safe these days, and this isn’t a great matchup.
Arsenal:
Pierre –Emerick Aubameyang ($21) has been absent for a week or so but was back at practice yesterday. Alexander Lacazette ($19) took a nasty head knock at the end of the United game, but has been deemed fit. Bukayo Saka ($16) missed out last game as well with a hip issue and has a late fitness test to see if he can go. Nicolas Pepe ($17) started again with Saka out and had a nice day even in a 0-0 draw. He had 14.2 fpts. with 3 chances created. I really like this squad for some goals tomorrow but we need to see who gets the start before we get too excited about individual plays. Saka is a lock if he’s in… if he is out again I love Pepe. Defensively, the whole squad performed really well vs. Manchester United. They should be in for a slightly easier day at the back but will be pressed by some pacey members of Wolves. Hector Bellerin ($10) is a good two-way player who could rack up some tackles and provide some offense. Bernd Leno ($12) has been nearly unbeatable over the last month plus. He has allowed 1 goal in his last 6 matches and has 15 saves in those games.
Prediction: Wolves 1 – Arsenal 3
Manchester United vs. Southampton:
This is the premier game of the slate but both teams’ forms are crap. United can’t score (0 vs. Arsenal and 1 vs. Sheffield United) and Southampton can’t either, (0 vs. Aston Villa and 1 vs. Arsenal.) So will either side get it together?
Manchester United:
Bruno Fernandes ($22) is still a top midfielder in the EPL, but he is run down and lacking form, like most of the squad. He hasn’t scored or had an assist in 5 games and that really impacts the rest of the team too. Marcus Rashford ($20) is still worth a shot in GPPs, but man his floor is nothing right now. Anthony Martial ($17) was better vs. Arsenal but still has not found any sort of form this season. Paul Pogba ($14) was red hot but has cooled off a bit, even with a decent game last time out with 14.5 peripheral points. Eric Bailly ($8) is projected to be a CB for this match and while he hasn’t seen much playing time lately, he still has the ability to hit double digits for cheap. Harry Maguire ($14) has been really excellent for the last 7 games with double digits in each match. David De Gea ($14) is the priciest keeper on the slate and while they are the biggest favorites, I don’t trust United to really punish the Saints.
Southampton:
Some very late transfer news made my buddy Mike a very happy Saints fan, Takumi Minamino is on his way for the rest of the season on loan from Liverpool to boost their attacking depth. He won’t be in the squad tomorrow I’m sure, and isn’t on the slate for either site but it’s something to note going forward. Danny Ings ($18) has dealt with a number of injury and Covid issues this season, but he still remains their top offensive threat, even in defeat he had 11 fpts. due to 2 chances created and 1 shot on goal vs. Villa. James Ward-Prowse ($16) remains underpriced in my opinion and has a monopoly on set pieces for the Saints as well as massive open play upside ability. He has over 15 pts in 3 of the last 4 matches. Nathan Redmond ($7) is dirt cheap and looked pretty good for his first start in over a month, once his legs fully get under him, watch out for him to bust through on the cheap. Defensively, they are all pretty solid. I like Jan Bednarek ($12) a bit more than Jack Stephens ($13), mostly because he’s $1 cheaper, otherwise they are pretty even. Alex McCarthy ($7) is the top GPP option of the slate. United will get shots on goal (7 in the last two games), just depends on how high quality they are and if the Saints defense is up for the challenge.
Prediction: Manchester United 1 – Southampton 1
Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace:
Two middle of the table squads clash after big wins to help turn the tide of their campaigns. Both squads have struggled since Christmas but maybe the weekend’s games will help boost them back into relevancy.
Newcastle United:
Callum Wilson ($19) came through huge for the Magpies Saturday vs. Everton with a brace. He finally converted some big chances and always has the ability to put up a big score. Miguel Almiron ($16) is finally playing well after his move from MLS last season, he’s a little pricey for my taste though, I prefer Jonjo Shelvey ($11) who takes most set pieces and had an assist vs. the Toffees. Deandre Yedlin’s time has come and gone as he was sold to Galatasary in Turkey on deadline day; Jamal Lewis ($11) had a great game on the weekend and has been slowly learning the system Steve Bruce has in place. If Matt Ritchie ($5) starts, lock him in! Fabian Schar ($9) may be my favorite CB play as he has finally looked healthy (16.7 and 20.4 last two games). Karl Darlow ($8) is cheap and looked great vs. Everton; he is fighting to keep his job now that Martin Dubravka is healthy.
Crystal Palace:
Zaha ($17) best striker on the side by far, but he is so inconsistent. This makes him tough to trust, even in a decent matchup. Eberechi Eze ($13) hit a banger of a goal vs. Wolves and is dangerous on the wing and from set pieces. Gary Cahill ($7) didn’t start last time out but is a cheap center back option. Scott Dann ($6) could start again and if so is a nice value for the slate. Vicente Guaita ($10) righted the ship vs. Wolves (4 saves, CS/Win) but Newcastle are more dynamic in attack, could be a tougher matchup.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1 – Crystal Palace 0
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-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
