English Premier League 1/30/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! We finally have a good weekend slate! DraftKings is doing it as just a 3-gamer, with all the games kicking off at 10am EST. FanDuel has made it a 5 game slate by including the two late games, one at 12:30pm and one at 3pm. As always, let’s start by looking at some odds.
Crystal Palace vs. Wolves (+155)
Manchester City (-769) vs. Sheffield United
West Bromwich Albion vs. Fulham (+130)
Arsenal vs. Manchester United (+145)
Southampton vs. Aston Villa (+138)
-Only one home favorite and its Man City roulette vs. last place Sheffield coming off the shocking victory vs. Manchester United. The other 4 games are all very, very close odds wise so we have to find an edge somewhere. With that being said, let’s dive into our game-by-game breakdown:
Crystal Palace vs. Wolves-
Wolves held “new” look Chelsea to a scoreless draw midweek and now get a Palace side who’ve dropped two straight to top 5 sides Man City and surprising West Ham. These two squads are even on points for the season and are very even in most statistical categories. Injuries have plagued both sides for the better part of the year but I think Wolves may have finally turned to corner.
Crystal Palace:
Zaha ($18) best striker on the side by far, he netted one vs. West Ham midweek. Christian Benteke ($14) has been in terrible form but did get the opening assist on Zaha’s goal. James Tomkins is still out injured which is a huge blow to the backline… Gary Cahill ($7) is in line to start again and is a cheap center back, but might not see enough action from Wolves to really pay off the salary. Vicente Guiata ($9) is a tough play right now, the defense is in shambles, even in a good matchup (multiple XM radio hosts pegged this game a surefire 0-0), he’s tough to trust.
Wolves:
As I mentioned before, I think Wolves have turned the corner and will finally stabilize in the standings. Pedro Neto ($17) is a really good player and I think the new addition of Willian Jose ($15) will make both great stacking options in a GPP. Ruben Neves ($14) is over-priced a bit for me but he loves to shoot and has an absolute howitzer for a right foot and this seems like a decent spot to unleash the firepower. Wily Boly ($14) has returned for the last two games, the loss to West Brom is bad, but he scored and assisted a goal in that game… last time out vs. Chelsea he was fantastic and led the back line with 8 clearances. Ki-Jana Hoever ($6) is a cheap option that might present itself to us Saturday after he replaced Ait-Nouri at halftime vs. Chelsea. He’s more effective offensively than defensively and could find more room to create vs. Palace. Rui Patricio ($12) has not been good this season, he had three straight negative score games before his 5 save clean sheet vs. Chelsea. I don’t think he’s a safe option, even in a good matchup.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – Wolves 1
Manchester City vs. Sheffield United:
Who did Sheffield offend to get drawn against both Manchester sides in a week’s time? Poor Blades! But… they beat Man United 2-1 and that shocked everyone. Now they get a shot at the top squad who are still without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.
Man City:
So this seems to be another, how much Man City can I fit, and how much do I want, kind of slate. Raheem Sterling ($23) started on the right and played well vs. West Brom with a goal and an assist. Riyad Mahrez ($22) also had a goal and assist in the thumping of the Baggies. If he starts up top again, I love him to repeat. Phil Foden ($16) was the cover boy last week for me and he really let me down, with only 16.2 fpts., while Ilkay Gundogan ($17) remained RED HOT with 2 goals to give him 4 in the last 3 games, 7 in the last 8! I was all over Joao Cancelo ($15) last time out and he came through with a goal and an assist as well as a clean sheet for almost 50 fpts! Sure he’s the most expensive defender on the slate, but he produces so much when in a good matchup. Kyle Walker ($8) wasn’t fully ready for the midweek game after a little hamstring issue but should be back for this match and is really cheap for the matchup. Ederson ($14) is the top cash goalie on the slate with his 6 straight clean sheets.
Sheffield United:
I said I didn’t want to play anyone from them vs. Man United, and I will take that stand again, even though they won last time out. John Fleck ($10) is their free-kick guy and most influential player on the ball and had an assist last game. Ethan Ampadu ($9) was great last time out; he’s been consistently getting better in his 3 back center-back role vs. the defensive midfielder role he was in earlier in the season. Double digits in four straight are pretty decent. Aaron Ramsdale ($7) had a nice outing with 3 saves while only allowing one to sneak by him last time out… but City can score in bunches and I don’t think he will reproduce that magic twice in a week.
Prediction: Manchester City 3 – Sheffield United 0
Fulham vs. West Bromwich:
We get another relegation battle in the EPL this week as West Brom, fresh off a 5-0 thumping by Man City travel to Fulham to take on the Cottagers who drew at Brighton 0-0 midweek. Neither side is particularly good offensively; with each side scoring 15 goals on the season, but West Brom have given up league high 48 goals in their 20 matches. That’s 12 more than the next squad, Crystal Palace.
Fulham:
I actually like this Fulham side quite a bit. They are scrappy and just need to find a real striker, or play Aleksandar Mitrovic ($11) more. Ademola Lookman ($16) has been their best player for the last month, and even without the team scoring, he had 16.3 fpts. on peripherals alone. Ola Aina ($9) has been really strong defensively as a back 3 center back of late and Kenny Tete ($10) is really good as a wing-back, but is still working his way back from injury so he didn’t go the full 90 to earn the CS on FanDuel. (Stupid rule) Alphonse Areola ($12) has been very good since Christmas, posting double digits in 3 of his 4 games. He’s a little pricier than I’d like but the matchup does not get any better.
West Brom:
Matheus Pereira ($16) is their PK taker and best playmaker. He’s really the only play I like on the squad, Robert Snodgrass ($9) would be in play too but he took a knock last game and is a question mark for Saturday. Darren O’Shea ($11) isn’t a fun pick but the guy is a double digit machine, with 8 straight games. Sam Johnstone ($8) is a decent keeper but was overmatched against City’s potent attack; this is a much better matchup, but not one I love to play.
Prediction: Fulham 2 – West Bromwich 0
Manchester United vs. Arsenal-
Man Utd is coming off a very, very bad loss to Sheffield United squad on Wednesday. Now they have to take on the hot Gunners of Arsenal, who have won 6 straight league games.
Man United:
Bruno Fernandes ($21) is the driver for the United train but he hasn’t scored in 4 games. The whole team was sub-optimal last time out but I think Marcus Rashford ($19) is still worth a shot in GPPs. Paul Pogba ($14) was red hot and still had a decent showing even in such a dreadful match. Victor Lindelof ($11) got a big bump in price but being fresh for this match may really help his ailing back. David De Gea ($11) finally came back to earth last game, this is a decent matchup but a little risky for me in cash.
Arsenal:
Alexander Lacazette ($18) had a goal and an assist vs. Southampton and has 5 goals in his last 6 games. Bukayo Saka ($17) is on another planet right now and he too had a goal and an assist vs. Southampton. He hasn’t had a score under 18 fpts. since 12/19. Nicolas Pepe ($14) came back into the squad and looked really solid. Defensively, no one really stands out DFS wise but if Cedric Soares ($11) starts again, I like his chances. Bernd Leno ($9) is on a heck of a streak; he broke his 4 straight clean sheet streak but still put up double digit points in the win.
Prediction: Manchester United 1 – Arsenal 2
Southampton vs. Aston Villa:
Two squads coming off some tough losses, Villa to surprisingly offensive oriented Burnley and Southampton to Arsenal right after they had defeated the Gunners in the FA Cup last weekend.
Southampton:
Danny Ings ($17) didn’t get on the score sheet vs. Arsenal but this is a spot he should smash in. James Ward-Prowse ($16) is still the free-kick king and is ALWAYS dangerous. He had an assist and almost 25 fpts. vs. Arsenal. Ryan Bertrand ($10) is back after his suspension so we won’t get the cheap Vokins play again but Yan Valery ($7) is still very cheap and will be asked to do a lot vs. a very active Villa attack. Alex McCarthy ($8) is very cheap, he’ll see plenty of shots, just hope his defense makes them less potent.
Aston Villa:
Jack Grealish ($20) is as good at football as he is handsome… and that’s seriously saying something. The English pretty boy was back on track vs. Burnley, scoring 1 and netting 45 fpts. in the loss. Ollie Watkins ($18) scored as well vs. Burnley and had 4 shots on goal. Bertrand Traore ($15) and Anwar El-Ghazi ($14) are both GPP options; neither has been in good form the last few weeks but have the ability to pop big. Tyrone Mings ($14) is a beast back there; he has 7 clearances or more in each of the last 3 games. Matt Targett ($11) got bumped $2 but is still cheap for his 3 straight games of over 15 fpts. Emiliano Martinez ($10) let me down last time out; I don’t think this is a get right spot right away.
Southampton 2 – Aston Villa 2
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
