English Premier League 1/27/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! Hope you all had as good of a Tuesday slate as we did over at Karma. If you read my article yesterday, I highlighted a few of the top scorers on the slate: Cancelo, Raphinha, Gundogan, and Saka. We are right back at it Wednesday, as we have 5 games. We will see two games kick off at 1pm EST, one at 2:30pm and the last two at 3:15pm. So, I’m here to break it down for you Karma Nation! Let’s jump right into the odds for this slate:
Burnley vs. Aston Villa (-110)
Chelsea (-175) vs. Wolves
Brighton & Hove Albion (+100) vs. Fulham
Everton vs. Leicester City (+155)
Manchester United (-400) vs. Sheffield United
One massive home favorite in Man Utd, then we see Chelsea as large favorites at home while Villa are slight away favorites. The other two games are really pick-ems, with no true favorite. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa-
Burnley is hot folks! They shocked Liverpool at Anfield then routed Fulham 3-0 in the FA Cup. Aston Villa righted the ship on Saturday vs. lowly Newcastle United (see yesterday’s write up and total’s game for more info on that cesspool), but had been struggling to find their red hot form from earlier in the season.
Burnley:
On that Liverpool showdown I played 4 Liverpool guys and Ashley Barnes ($13) and of course Barnes was the only one to score a goal and led to a nice day. He’s been much safer than Chris Wood ($14) but neither screams amazing plays to me. Robby Brady ($11) has been playing well but is facing a late fitness test to return for this match. Defensively is where Burnley has been stellar. Ben Mee ($14) hasn’t had single digit outputs since before Christmas; James Tarkowsi ($13) too has only 1 single digit fpt game since the beginning of Christmas. They are as rock solid a center back duo as there is in the EPL. Matthew Lowton ($8) has had nice games, (16.7 most recently vs. Liverpool) but is not as safe as the two previous games were both below 10 fpts. If you’ve read my articles before you know how I feel about Nick Pope ($9)… this man is a top flight keeper. He is AVERAGING 15.5 FD fpts. a game this season. That’s unreal, especially for a team that is sitting in 15th place with just 5 wins on the season.
Aston Villa:
At first glance of the slate I loved Villa both defensively and offensively but have since back tracked a bit. I still think they are the better squad. Jack Grealish ($19) is a top 10 midfielder in England and even though he came off early on the weekend, he says he is fit for Wednesday’s game. Grealish hasn’t had fewer than 10 fpts since before Thanksgiving; he’s a solid floor play with great upside. Since Burnley’s defense is so stout, especially in the middle, I will be fading Ollie Watkins ($17) but love both wingers to keep bombing it in. Bertrand Traore ($16) has been on fire, 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 6 games. Anwar El Ghazi ($14) was the man on fire for a solid 2 weeks in December but has since cooled off a bit and even dropped his place in the starting eleven on Saturday. Ross Barkley ($13) has returned from injury and is always a solid mid-value play. Defensively, Villa have been really good this season, just allowing 18 goals in 17 matches (3rd best in the EPL behind Man City and Tottenham), while Burnley only have 10 goals on the season, tied for last with Sheffield United. Matty Cash ($14) and Matt Targett ($9) are the full backs and tend to score pretty similarly… but are $5 different. I’ll take Targett for maybe a few points less but a huge savings. Tyrone Mings ($13) has back to back solid matches but I’m not sure he sees enough action to hit true value. Emiliano Martinez ($12) is averaging an absurd 17 fpts. a game this season; he has 9 clean sheets on the year as well.
Prediction: Burnley 0 – Aston Villa 1
Chelsea vs. Wolves:
Frank, we loved you, but good-bye. The Tuchel era has begun and Roman Abramovich will be pressing immensely to return the Blues back to a top 4 spot. On the other side of the pitch, Nuno has been struggling to fix Wolves who continue to slide down the standings.
Chelsea:
So how does a new manager change Chelsea? Well… he’s only had one training session with the squad prior to this match, so don’t expect sudden changes to occur. But I do think a few players will regain some confidence with the new manager coming in, like Christian Pulisic ($13) who’s worked with Tuchel successfully before. Tammy Abraham ($21) is coming off an FA Cup hat trick and seems to have found his form as the lone striker. Mason Mount ($16) captained the side for the first time in his career and is set to continue his run of quality starts. (Last time under 10 fpts. was vs. Wolves in December) Reece James ($12) finally got a price bump after his 22 pt. outburst vs. Leicester. Ben Chilwell ($10) is in my dog house, he’s been miserable of late and is a do not play until he regains form. Edouard Mendy ($13) is still a solid keeper, but his defense has let him down a lot of late, I don’t think he is in play tomorrow, even in the favorable matchup.
Wolves:
Wolves’ last EPL win was… 2-1 vs. Chelsea on December 15th.
Raul Jimenez has started light training, which is amazing news for the football world after that scary head injury but it’s even better news for the offensively anemic Wolves squad. 8 goals in their last 6 games are not ideal. Pedro Neto ($18) is the most consistent player on the Wolves side and has a decent floor. Adama Traore ($11) is always worth mentioning but he’s just not a skilled footballer at this time. Defensively, nothing I like for DFS purposes, Rui Patricio ($7) is a fine GPP play given the state of distress Chelsea has been in, but I think they come out and win one for the new guy.
Prediction: Chelsea 2 – Wolves 0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Fulham:
A relegation battle royal here, as they sit 17th and 18th respectively in the standings. Fulham can close the gap to 2 points with a game in hand if they can win this one vs. the Seagulls.
Brighton:
Not a ton to love about this squad but they are coming off two nice EPL games, a 1-0 win vs. Leeds and a 1-0 defeat at Man City. Neal Maupay ($17) is the main striker and has 7 goals on the season. Solly March ($10) is a good player and has had a good season when healthy, he’s a consistent double digit fpt contributor and this is a great matchup to fly down the wing. Defensively, they are weak DFS wise, Lewis Dunk ($14) is always dangerous in the air but his floor is too low for the premium price he costs you. Robert Sanchez ($11) has been pretty good since taking over full-time from Mat Ryan, but still has limited upside since his defense is shotty.
Fulham:
Fulham have been playing much better as of late, but still haven’t gotten any positive results. They only lost 1-0 to Chelsea, 2-1 to Manchester United and tied Tottenham 1-1 in a rough stretch of the season. Ademola Lookman ($15) scored vs. United last time out and has been very good for the Cottagers this season up top to fill in for Mitrovic. Ivan Cavaliero ($14) has been taking most set pieces and is a decent mid-value here since the matchup is favorable. Kenny Tete ($10) is back from injury and is a very nice DFS full back (24.2 pts vs. United). Alphonse Areola ($8) is a tough one to trust since the squad isn’t solid defensively, but he’s been a consistent double digit scorer, I just don’t think this is a top end matchup for him to hit ceiling.
Prediction: Brighton 1 – Fulham 1
Everton vs. Leicester City-
Best game of the day by far, we see 3rd place Leicester travel to Goodison Park to take on 7th place Everton. (6 points between them and Everton has 2 games in hand.) Both squads are coming in hot, Everton has won 3 in a row and Leicester has won 5 in a row and hasn’t lost in 8 games.
Everton:
Don’t look now but Karma soccer aficionado Garrett’s Toffees are finally healthy! James Rodriguez ($16) is back to full form (2 assists vs. Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup over the weekend.) Richarlison ($19) is in a dry spell after returning from injury and suspension but this matchup is a tough one. He being back helps Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18) a lot too. DCL really had missed James and Richarlison. Oh and Lucas Digne ($13) is back too and hasn’t missed a beat. This team is very scary heading into the second half of the season Jordan Pickford ($8) is really cheap… but he is so tough to stomach. He makes some amazing saves then turns around and lets it go right through his tiny arms.
Leicester City:
The Foxes are red hot and it’s very reminiscent of their title run a few years ago. James Maddison ($18) is ON FIRE, he has goals in 3 straight games and has nothing less than 17 fpts. since the beginning of December. That’s incredible and he is criminally underpriced here. Jamie Vardy is out for a bit but that shouldn’t hurt them too much, Kelechi Ihenacho ($17) will step into the striker role most likely and has a proven record of scoring in the EPL in his career. Harvey Barnes ($15) has also been really solid of late, 3 goals and an assist in the last 5. Marc Albrighton ($10) has been resurrected, and is whipping in crosses like a man half his age. He has 2 assists in the last 3 and is averaging almost 18 fpts. in those games. Defensively, Jonny Evans ($12) should be very busy and is decent floor play with high ceiling for middle value. Kasper Schmeichel ($10) has back to back clean sheets and finally has a fully healthy defense, just like Everton.
Prediction: Everton 1 – Leicester City 1
Manchester United vs. Sheffield United-
Man Utd sit 2nd in the EPL after City went ahead of them today. They’ve been on an unreal tear with no losses in the EPL since November 1st vs. Arsenal. Sheffield on the other hand, sit bottom of the table and surely going down after the season. They have 1 win and just 5 points in 19 games.
Manchester United:
United’s offense starts with Bruno Fernandes ($23), who is averaging over 30 fpts. per game on the season. He’s been pretty quiet of late though, with just 1 goal and 0 assists since New Year’s Day. Marcus Rashford ($20) is questionable and this being the late game makes him risky. He remains a good GPP play and not a complete disaster if he misses out as they have pivots but are much cheaper than he is. Edison Cavani ($17) is in good form and is coming off a goal vs. Fulham. Paul Pogba ($15) is officially back though. He has 2 goals in the last 3 and double digits in each of his last 5. Luke Shaw ($11) seems like a solid value in a slam dunk spot, he’s had some really nice games of late. David De Gea ($14) is still a world class keeper but his defense and has only allowed 2 goals in his last 5 games putting up 3 clean sheets. Dean Henderson started last time vs. Sheffield and let in 2 on 6 shots on goal.
Sheffield United:
Man this team is bad. Don’t play anyone from them, but if you must… David McGoldrick ($14) has a decent floor for a huge underdog forward every match and has 5 goals on the season. Jayden Bogle ($8) has been very nice for this squad and plays as the right wing-back. Aaron Ramsdale ($7) will see a plethora of shots, but I view him similarly to Johnstone today… and we all saw the clinic City put on West Brom.
Prediction: Manchester United 4 – Sheffield United 0
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
