English Premier League 12/26/20
Boxing Day 2020 is almost here! Saturday morning we welcome back the EPL for a big 5 game slate on FD but just a 3 game slate on DK. So, I’m here to break it down for you all from Karma Nation. Unfortunately the staggered starts continue but we keep making the most of it with a few great wins and a very close loss last week. Enough of that though, let’s jump right into the odds for this slate that starts kicking off at 10am EST:
Aston Villa (-111) vs. Crystal Palace 10 AM
Fulham vs. Southampton (+130) 10 AM
Arsenal vs. Chelsea (-111) 12:30 PM
Manchester City (-909) vs. Newcastle United 3 PM
Sheffield United vs. Everton (-118) 3 PM
One big home favorite in Man City, one small home favorite in Villa and 2 away favorites in Chelsea and Everton. Great slate, lots of great spots to attack and plenty of swaps available for the later games. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace-
This game is a tale of two very different teams’ forms. Villa hasn’t lost in 3 games, and Palace hasn’t won in 3 games. Villa has 3 straight clean sheets while, Palace just got utterly shellacked by Liverpool 7-0.
Aston Villa:
This team is in some kind of form defensively and even though they only have 5 goals in those 3 shut outs, they have 19 shots on goal in those matches. Anwar El-Ghazi ($15/$8700) is a cash lock on FD and is the most expensive forward on DK. It makes him a little tougher to fit but still a really great play with his form currently. He alone has 10 of those 19 shots on goal in the last 3! Jack Grealish ($19/$10000) is still an excellent play even though he hasn’t had to do the heavy lifting of earlier in the season or like last year. He still takes many set pieces and has insane open play value (16 fouls drawn last 3 games, 17 chances created) which makes him an elite play if he scores. Ollie Watkins ($17/$7200) has really fallen off of his hot start to the season but has the ceiling potential, he has 6 goals on the season and 3 of those were in one match. Great GPP pivot play or stack piece. Bertrand Traore ($16/$8200) had a great game vs. West Brom last time out with a goal and an assist and has played very well of late. Tyrone Mings ($14/$3800) is a top center back in the league, his ability in the air makes him very dangerous from set pieces (he’s scored twice this season) and is always a defensive stalwart in front of goal. Matty Cash ($13/$5900) has cooled off a bit but has 21 crosses over his last 4 games. Matt Targett ($12/$5300) is a similar player to Cash, and 16 crosses over the last 4 games at a slight discount. Ezri Konsa Ngoyo ($10/$4100) has missed the last two matches with an illness and is still doubtful. Emiliano Martinez ($11/$5300) has 3 straight clean sheets, and 7 total on the season. He is in great form and this team has been a really solid unit. Cash play for sure.
Crystal Palace:
Palace got absolutely thrashed by Liverpool last weekend; they looked just awful, and allowed 7 goals on just 8 shots on goal. Before that poor performance their defense was pretty solid, allowing just 3 goals in the previous 3 matches. Offensively, they have really struggled scoring just 19 goals in 14 matches. Wilfried Zaha ($17/$7400) is the best forward option on the squad (7 goals) but needs some help, Eberechi Eze ($11/$6800) has been taking most set pieces (PVA has taken a few too) and is extremely fast down the wing to terrorize full backs. Andros Townsend ($12/$7600) is overpriced on DK IMO, but he’s pretty solid when given the chance, he’s a free kind of player in that he crosses and shoots a good amount. Cheikhou Kouyate ($7/2500) is a nice punt option as he should see plenty of action in defense. Their offensive full backs just aren’t worth the prices on either site to me. Vicente Guaita ($7/$4200) is a tough one for me to play right now after that atrocious outing but Villa shoots a ton so the upside is there, he’s a great GPP option.
Prediction: Aston Villa 3 – Crystal Palace 0
Fulham vs. Southampton:
Fulham has enjoyed some really solid football of late with 3 consecutive draws to raise them to 10 points on the season, but still in the relegation zone. Southampton has been on really a nice run here and find themselves 7th heading into Christmas even after dropping a very unlucky 1-0 result to Man City.
Fulham:
Ademola Lookman ($17/$6600) has been very consistent up front for the Cottagers. Ivan Cavaliero ($14/$5400) is an injury question as he got hurt in warm-ups last game. Aleksandar Mitrovic ($13/$6000) was my guy last week and he did just about nothing… he’s always a GPP play as his floor is nothing, but the ceiling is pretty nice. Joachim Andersen ($9) was very unlucky to get sent off last week and his red card has been successfully appealed, he is in another solid matchup for cheap. Antonee Robinson ($4200) is a solid young piece to this club, and has had some really nice moments down the wing. Southampton is really solid defensively but they are susceptible to the quick counter. Alphonse Areola ($9/$4600) is a GPP only type play, the defense has been very good in front of him but I don’t see a win or clean sheet in the cards.
Southampton:
Danny Ings ($18/$7300) seems to be set to miss this matchup with yet another injury. That mean’s Theo Walcott ($14/$6400) should start up front and is a nice value play in a favorable matchup. I really like him on DK since it’s only 3 games. James Ward-Prowse ($15/$8000) seems underpriced for both sites; he is a free-kick king and Fulham love to foul people in good spots. Vestergaard should miss out so that would bring Jack Stephens ($7/$2600) into the fold and is a great punt play. Both fullbacks Ryan Bertrand ($8/$4000) and Kyle Walker-Peters ($8/$4300) are decent plays here, Fulham get forward a decent amount and can be beat with pace on the outside, but neither are in any sort of good form. Alex McCarthy ($10/$5000) is a very solid keeper behind a good defense… they probably are down two very good defensive players though in aforementioned Vestergaard and also CDM Oriol Romeu.
Prediction: Fulham 0 – Southampton 2
Arsenal vs. Chelsea:
Arsenal are in shambles. They have scored a measly 12 goals in 14 matches (3rd worst in the league) and currently sit 15th in the table while Chelsea are 5th after righting the ship on Monday home to West Ham after two straight tough defeats.
Arsenal:
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($18/$6200) is doubtful for this match again and that should mean another blah Arsenal lineup. Willian ($14/$6200) has been just awful but this is a revenge game for him. Nicholas Pepe ($14/$5600) has been better of late and should have most free kicks and has PK duties. Eddie Nketiah ($16/$4900) is the last guy I’ll mention and only because he is a viable punt at forward on DK. Gabriel Magalhaes ($11) is back and should be busy all game. Bernd Leno ($8/$4400) is on an island, should see some shot volume but Chelsea haven’t really been lighting it up offensively of late.
Chelsea:
Both fullbacks are set to miss out on this one which hurts the team dynamic but means Mason Mount ($16/$7700) should have full sets again which makes him a really solid play on both sites. Timo Werner ($21/$7800) is still very pricey and keeps missing absolute sitters every week. He’s due to break out. On the positive side though he has 4 assists on the season since the goals haven’t been there. Tammy Abraham ($19/$7500) had a brace on Monday, otherwise didn’t do a whole lot… very goal dependent play. If for some reason we see Callum Hudson-Odoi ($8/$6900) start, he’s an absolute steal on FD. Christian Pulisic ($15/$7000) has played nearly 90 last game and full 90 the game before that so it’s certainly possible he sees a bit of a rest. Thiago Silva ($12/$3600) has been outstanding this season and has steadied the defense to be tied for the 3rd best in the league thus far. Emerson ($9/$4700) played well for Chilwell after he hurt himself on his own birthday 10 minutes in… yes I’m still bitter about this. He’s a great play in this matchup. Edouard Mendy ($12/$5400) got back on track with a clean sheet win vs. West Ham but had a string of some pretty poor DFS outings… not sure this is the best matchup, I prefer a few others.
Prediction: Arsenal 1 – Chelsea 2
Manchester City vs. Newcastle United-
Man City is on a serious run, unbeaten in their last 9 matches and is up to 8th in the standings after a very rough start. Newcastle has suffered from some serious Covid issues and has lost 5-2 to Leeds, drew with 10 men Fulham and lost to Brentford in the EFL cup for their last 3 matches.
Manchester City:
Kevin De Bruyne ($23) continues to be the highest priced player and keeps underperforming. His floor is really solid (25 in each of the last two games) but the ceiling is what is needed for such an expensive player. This is a great matchup as Newcastle is in shambles like I mentioned before, I think he is a cash lock even at that price. Raheem Sterling ($22) has started to heat up a bit; he has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 games. Gabriel Jesus tested positive for Covid Friday so he is out. I’m interested to see if Sergio Aguero ($20) gets the start or if Pep sticks with Ferran Torres ($16) up top. Riyad Mahrez ($18) is always a great GPP play, he has a very low floor but the ceiling is enormous (80.6! earlier this season). Kyle Walker has also tested positive for Covid and is out, which should give Ben Mendy ($10) another start. He has a terrible floor but again, a very good ceiling. John Stones ($14) continues to impressive but is very pricey in my mind. I’d rather pay elsewhere or go up $1 for Joao Cancelo ($15) who continues to put up big numbers just of floor points in defense. Ederson ($14) is the most expensive keeper and deservedly so, he has 4 clean sheets in the last 5 and just allowed 1 goal in the game he did concede.
Newcastle United:
Callum Wilson ($17) is the safest player on the squad, he has 3 great games in the last 4 (31.3, 3, 24.9 and 30.2). This matchup is not ideal but in GPPs I think he will be very low owned and has PK duty to boot. Miguel Almiron ($14) has quietly had 2 very solid starts in a row, scoring 36.5 at West Brom and 13.2 vs. Fulham. Of course those two squads are at the bottom of the table, so take that all with a grain of salt. Matt Ritchie ($6) is very underpriced for the floor he has. He should have a majority of set pieces and was even playing in the front 4 last game and had 12.9 peripheral points. Karl Darlow ($6) is super cheap and is a deep GPP play, City does tend to pepper the goal a bit but they tend to find the back of the net more often than not.
Prediction: Manchester City 3 – Newcastle United 0
Sheffield United vs. Everton-
Sheffield are the worst team in the league, and it’s not close. They have 2 points from 14 games, only scoring 8 goals and conceding 25. Everton sit 4th currently and have ripped off a 3 nice EPL wins but did bow out of the EFL Cup midweek to Manchester United.
Sheffield United:
Sander Berge is probably done for the year with a hamstring injury; John Lundstram is suspended and probably done with the club come January transfer window and Ollie McBurnie is a serious question mark with a shoulder injury. So who does that leave? Honestly, no one, but David McGoldrick ($17) did score two vs. United and provided an assist last game vs. Brighton. Jon Fleck ($11) is the benefactor of a lot of those injuries but his form has not been good this season. The magic of the Blades is gone. Ethan Ampadu ($9) played more defensive midfield and has 15 tackles in his last 4 games to give him a decent floor. Aaron Ramsdale ($7) is cheap but his upside is not enough for me here… Everton don’t shoot a ton and the Blades are a disaster everywhere.
Everton:
No James Rodriguez again so we should see Gylfi Sigurdsson ($14) on set piece duty. His last 3 in this role, 45.8, 12.9 and 16.9, not too bad for a cheap guy, and now he sees a great matchup. Richarlison ($18) is a serious doubt with a head injury, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($19) remains a top striker, even with his 3 game goal drought. Yerry Mina ($12) hammered home a set piece goal last weekend and is a nice price for a big favorite center-back. Mason Holgate ($11) has been really good as a makeshift full back and is in play once again. Jordan Pickford ($12) is a tough play for me. The volume of shots won’t be there, but the clean sheet chance is very high. That’s usually when his t-rex arms come out and whiff one.
Prediction: Sheffield United 0 – Everton 2
I hope everyone had a safe and fun Christmas and enjoy Boxing Day!
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
