English Premier League 2/6/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! We had a near take-down on Wednesday and if I only stuck to my gut with captaining Jorginho on Fanduel as well as Draftkings, I would’ve had a top 10 place there too. But enough of the past as we are back for some EPL weekend football with a 4 game slate on both Fanduel and Draftkings. Unfortunately, it is still a split slate with two games kicking off at 10am EST, the next at 12:30pm and the last kicking off at 3pm. As always, let’s start by looking at some odds.
Burnley vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (+115)
Newcastle vs. Southampton (+140)
Fulham vs. West Ham United (+105)
Manchester United (-182) vs. Everton
We get one home favorite. Manchester United is fresh off their 9-0 spanking of Southampton while the other 3 games slightly favor the away squads with plus odds. An Interesting slate is upon us, and with that being said, let’s dive into our game-by-game breakdown for more info.
Burnley vs. Brighton & Hove Albion-
Burnley sit 17th, just outside the relegation zone (8 points clear of Fulham though), while Brighton are just 2 points ahead of Burnley in 15th. Yet these two squads are playing some decent football of late, Brighton haven’t lost since a 1-0 defeat to Man City on January 13th, while Burnley had a nice run defeating Fulham and Liverpool consecutively before falling 2-0 to Chelsea and Man City themselves.
Burnley:
Burnley have 21 of their 22 points since Ben Mee ($15) returned from injury, and if that doesn’t say everything you need to know about this game, I don’t know what does. This could be a very defensive-minded game, 1-0 screams out at me. Offensively, Burnley have very little going for them. I think the best play may be Ashley Westwood ($8) since he should be on most sets, but I don’t love the play. They have no forwards in any form at all and very little inspiring wing play. Michael Lowton ($8) was a play of mine vs. City and this matchup should be decent enough for him to get a little offensive upside to add to his defensive stats (4 tackles last game, 10 in the last 4 games). Nick Pope ($9) makes some amazing saves but even with his heroics, this team is punch-less, the best you could hope for is a smash and grab 1-0 match.
Brighton:
The Seagulls have not conceded a league goal since Man City on the 13th… that’s 4 straight clean sheets if you’re counting at home. Leandro Trossard ($14) has been in great form (over 18 fpts. in each of the last 3) and has been leading the charge up front. Pascal Gross ($13) is still the man pulling the strings and has really been finding a groove with some pocket passes of late. His ability to unlock a defense is truly devastating for the opponent, and with 12 chances created over the last 3 games, he is a great GPP play or one off in cash games. Lewis Dunk ($14) is an elite CB in this league due to his ability to command the box on both ends of the pitch. Adam Webster ($10) has been playing deeper as the CB and that showed more with the 9 clearances vs. Liverpool. Robert Sanchez ($11) has 4 straight clean sheets like I stated before and has 5 straight games in double digit fantasy points. He is definitely in my cash pool.
Prediction: Burnley 0 – Brighton 1
Newcastle United vs. Southampton:
Man, this should have been a decent match but both these teams are in full on nose-dives. Southampton was top of the table for a time there and now sit 12th, Newcastle are sliding down and sit 16th just 8 points clear of the relegation zone. This should be a very important match for both squads to get 3 points from.
Newcastle:
Callum Wilson ($16) is still the guy for the Magpies but his finishing just hasn’t been there of late. Ryan Fraser ($9) is way too cheap, especially coming of a game where he produced 7 chances created. Matt Ritchie ($7) might be back in the squad and that could hurt Fraser’s upside more than help anything, could help Wilson though since it’d be another guy to pick him out with a cross. Fabian Schar ($8) is still a cheap CB who has a decent floor and Southampton will attack. Karl Darlow ($8) really let me down vs. Crystal Palace but I think he could be a decent play for cheap.
Southampton:
Yikes. That’s all I have to say after that absolute massacre vs. Manchester United. Sure the kid Jankewitz getting a straight red card 2 minutes into his first premier league match definitely helped that rout but that squad was set up for failure. Jan Bednarek ($11) also got a red card, but had it overturned and will luckily be available. Danny Ings ($19) has dealt with a number of injury and Covid issues this season, but he still remains their top offensive threat. James Ward-Prowse ($18) got a slight price uptick but still had over 20 fpts. in that 9-0 blowout. Takumi Minamino ($13) could see a start here after his transfer from Liverpool and is a great addition to a weak attack. Defensively, they are all pretty solid. Kayne Ramsay ($5) may start on the outside again and put up 10 fpts. in a bad matchup midweek. Alex McCarthy ($10) got absolutely blitzed by United but to be fair, most of those were when the game was already over. He did grab 6 saves in the match and this is a great bounce-back spot.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1 – Southampton 2
Fulham vs. West Ham United:
I think this might be the biggest blowout of the slate. Fulham are in decent form but just can’t score, while West Ham are flying high and sit 5th in the league with 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
Fulham:
Ademola Lookman ($14) is a really good player and he’s been really solid of late but he is not a do-it-yourself kind of player and needs some help from a striker or deep midfielder to set him up. Fulham defenders are overpriced except maybe Ola Aina ($8) who should be a decent play with plenty of work to do at the back. Alphonse Areola ($7) is a deep GPP play. I really don’t like Fulham at all.
West Ham United:
Welcome JESSE LINGARD ($14)! Holy debut man! The former Manchester United darling turned dumpster fire came over at the deadline and lit the world on fire with a brace on his debut scoring 52.3 fpts! Oh and the hottest goal scorer in the league roams the midfield… Tomas Soucek ($18) he is absolutely LETHAL in the air and now has 8 goals from his defensive midfielder spot. Michail Antonio ($20) looked completely back finally, and assisted 2 goals vs. Villa. I love West Ham defenders here, they all can get forward and all can do serious damage in defense as well. I think Aaron Cresswell ($12) has the best ceiling due to set pieces but he has seen a few less of them of late. Vladimir Coufal ($13) has been amazing this year and Craig Dawson ($12) since his transfer, has been a stud in the middle. Lukasz Fabianski ($12) did not score well vs. Villa since he let 1 in and only made 1 save, but this is a premier matchup and should get a clean sheet/win.
Prediction: Fulham 0– West Ham United 3
Manchester United vs. Everton:
The match of the day! United fresh off the walk in the park vs. Southampton take on the Toffees who turned it back around vs. Leeds United mid-week.
Manchester United:
Bruno Fernandes ($23) broke out of his slump and in the rout put up 65.5 fpts. with a PK goal and 2 assists vs. Southampton. Everyone really will have huge stats from this game as they had 8 different goal scorers. Marcus Rashford ($21) is still worth a shot in GPPs, but man his floor is still nothing right now, even after the goal midweek. Anthony Martial ($17) was better off the bench netting two but still has to prove he has found any sort of form this season. Victor Lindelof ($8) is projected to be a CB for this match after sitting out mid-week and should be a decent play with Everton able to threaten goal plenty. Luke Shaw ($13) had a MONSTER game putting up 35.3 fpts. in just a half since he was subbed off. David De Gea ($14) is the priciest keeper on the slate and while they are the biggest favorites, I don’t trust United to shut out Everton.
Everton:
James Rodriguez ($17) didn’t play vs. Leeds United for some reason and they really missed his play-making ability but Gylfi Sigurdsson ($13) started for him and scored. Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18) broke out of his slump and scored a tap in vs. Leeds in route to 40.2 fpts. This matchup is much tougher for Everton. Lucas Digne ($14) is back to his massive upside from a full back role (21.7 fpts. last time out) and if Ben Godfrey ($8) starts again at CB, I love his upside (even without the fluky assist last game he had a good score.) Robin Olsen ($6) is in net again since Pickford has been ruled out, that makes me like Everton a bit more to keep United out but this defense just isn’t leak proof. He’s the elite GPP play.
Prediction: Manchester United 2 – Everton 1
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
