English Premier League 2/13/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! We had FA Cup action midweek, and we get the return of Champions League this coming Tuesday/Wednesday, so buckle up, it’s about to get seriously fun! Unfortunately for this Saturday slate we get 3 games, all at staggered start times, the first kicks off at 10am EST, the next at 12:30pm and the last kicking off at 3pm. As always, let’s start by looking at some odds.
Crystal Palace (+145) vs. Burnley
Manchester City (-333) vs. Tottenham
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa (+150)
So we get one massive home favorite being Manchester City who hasn’t lost in 22 matches, and who have WON 15 straight. We also get two very close battles where neither team is really favored by much, but they do have the lower goal totals as well. So is it another “how much Man City can we jam in to our lineups?” kind of slate or are there other optimal plays out there. Let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown to find out.
Crystal Palace vs. Burnley-
Burnley sits 17th, just outside the relegation zone (8 points clear of Fulham though), while Crystal Palace are 6 points ahead of Burnley in 13th. Burnley drew 1-1 vs. Brighton last weekend then dropped a stunner 2-0 to Championship side Bournemouth in the FA Cup midweek. Palace is coming off a 2-0 beating by Leeds United on Monday.
Crystal Palace:
Zaha has been ruled out of this one and that is a massive blow to Palace’s attack. They just look lost without him out on the pitch. This downgrades most of this squad for me but there are still a few decent plays available. Eberechi Eze ($13/$8200) is a better DK play since most of his value comes from crosses, but is still playable on FD since he creates chances and should take a fair amount of the sets. Andros Townsend ($14/$7800) is better as the second fiddle than the lead man, but his ability to do a little of everything (tackles, shots on goal, chances created/crosses) makes him a nice value and a decent play on DK given the matchup. Jean-Phillipe Mateta ($11/$6500) made his debut on Monday and started, he was pretty unimpressive though, but might take him a bit to get acclimated to the league and the Palace system. Patrick Van Aanholt ($11/$4500) has been a shell of his prior self this season. Sure he’s been injured but man, even when he’s on the pitch you don’t see him involved much. Scott Dann ($8) and Gary Cahill ($9) are both cheap CBs on FD and worth a mention, but don’t have the best matchup. Vicente Guaita ($11/$5100) is priced as the second biggest favorite keeper… and I don’t think he’s worth it. He needs the CS/W to pay off his salary, I prefer other spots.
Burnley:
Burnley have gained 22 of their 23 points since Ben Mee ($15/$3200) returned from injury, and if that doesn’t say everything you need to know about this game, I don’t know what does. Once again, this should be a very defensive-minded game, 1-0 screams out at me. (I said this last week and it ended 1-1) Offensively, Burnley have very little going for them. Johan Gudmundsson ($7/$4800) finally scored for the first time in like two years last week, and is a great value on both sites. I also really like Matej Vydra ($9/$3900) who is a super value on DK and helps open up a lot. Dwight McNeil ($12/$6900) finally woke up vs. Brighton (10 crosses) and is still a pretty decent price in a plus matchup. Michael Lowton ($10/$4300) has had a nice run of late and should see plenty of chances to get forward vs. Palace. James Tarkowski ($13/$3000) is a great punt play on DK and is a top CB play on FD. Nick Pope ($10/$4500) should be fit for this one and if he’s in, he’s a top play of mine.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 0 – Burnley 1
Manchester City vs. Tottenham:
This is the marquee match of the day, but it’s also the biggest gap odds wise on the slate. So what gives? City is in 1st place and seem like they are running away with the title, while Spurs are wallowing in 8th after a run of poor form. Is that enough for City to be a 2 goal favorite? City has won 15 straight matches, which is unreal form and it has to end at some point. You have to think Pep wants a little reality check before Champions League returns right?
Manchester City:
No Kevin De Bruyne, no Sergio Aguero, no problem for the Citizens. Raheem Sterling ($23/$9500) is in fine form 3 goals in his last 3, 4 in the last 5 and will lead the line again. He’s always a great option as long as he isn’t playing the false 9, which Pep finally may have realized is not a good spot for him. Ilkay Gundogan ($18/$8500) is as hot as any player on the planet right now… since Christmas, 8 goals in 9 matches, but that isn’t a true look at the player he is. He does all the little things right, and is never out of place, he’s a coach’s dream of a midfielder. Phil Foden ($17/$8600) has really had a coming out party of a season, and put on a show vs. Liverpool with a goal and an assist vs. the champions, at Anfield. Riyad Mahrez ($16/$7900) has had a little scuff in form of late and is at a little bit of a discount because of it. He hasn’t been in the first team much of late but with the match congestion, I would not be surprised if he gets the start on the right. Joao Cancelo ($15/$5600) is the most expensive defender on both sites, and well, he’s deserved it. His form is part of the reason why City is so hot. He had a down game vs. Liverpool since he was asked to stay back more vs. Mane. Ruben Dias ($12/$3800) should be back for this match after missing out last week due to a fever, but if he misses and Aymeric Laporte ($8/$2800) starts, he’s a solid play for cheap. Ederson ($14/$5900) has had an UNREAL season; sure he lost his CS of 8 straight CS/W when Liverpool got 1 vs. them, but he has more wins on the year than goals against… (14/13), that’s an amazing stat. Oh and there is a rumor going around that he’s been practicing penalties and may take the next City PK… this only applies to DK stats though FYI.
Tottenham:
Spurs are reeling; they’ve lost 4 of their lost 5 matches, including a 9 goal thriller mid-week to Everton in the FA Cup. Their only win over those matches was a 2-0 win over hapless West Bromwich Albion. Now, sure they were without Harry Kane ($20/$8700) for some of those matches, but still a squad of this depth should be able to withstand 1 injury a little bit better. Son Heung-Min ($18/$8900) and Kane have been a dynamic duo this season, but man this matchup is as tough as tough can get. They are GPP only for me as their prices are way too high for the matchup. If Erik Lamela ($3200) gets a start again, I like him for cheap as he should have set pieces when on the pitch. Defensively, both top full-backs are out (Aurier and Reguillon) so that leaves us with some CB plays, which really are only in play on FD with Davinson Sanchez ($10) as the cheaper of the two projected starters. Hugo Lloris ($8/$3800) is not for the faint of heart, but he should see plenty of shots and is a very good keeper still.
Prediction: Manchester City 3 – Tottenham 1
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa:
Brighton sits 15th in the standings but have been playing very well of late, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 premier league matches and lost a heartbreaker in the 94th minute to Leicester midweek in the FA Cup. Aston Villa sit 9th in the standings but has had quite the yo-yo of a season. Their last 6 matches are alternating wins and losses. (Most recently a 1-0 win over Arsenal.)
Brighton:
The Seagulls continue to pick up points, albeit in a very unappealing way (Defense and defense.) Leandro Trossard ($15/$8100) has been in great form (over 18 fpts. in each of the last 3) but was given the weekend off vs. Burnley. He should be back in there and is a great option. Pascal Gross ($13/$8400) is criminally underpriced still on FD for being the man pulling the strings and has really been finding a groove with some pocket passes of late. (15 chances created over the last 4 matches.) Lewis Dunk ($15/$4300) is an elite CB in this league due to his ability to command the box on both ends of the pitch and of course on cue scored vs. Burnley. Ben White ($6/$3700) is a nice punt defender while Dan Burn ($7/$3400) is another fine cheap option. Robert Sanchez ($7/$4700) has been really great this last month plus and should be plenty busy vs. Villa, could be the top scoring keeper for cheap.
Aston Villa:
Aston Villa are fun to watch, they play with such an open style and attack with abandon. It’s very fantasy friendly too and they are led by handsome Jack Grealish ($19/$9100) who was first into my lineups (yes, even with City playing on the slate). He does it all and plays 90 nearly every since game. He has drawn 96 fouls this season, which is an insane amount. Bertrand Traore ($13/$7500) has been a really good player this season but his struggle to fight back and play defense sees him come off first almost every time. Ollie Watkins ($21/$8000) is an elite goal scorer and has proven his worth many times over but he is overpriced for a tough matchup vs. a very tough defense, GPP only. I always love Villa defenders, Matty Cash ($11/$4700), Matt Targett ($12/$4600) are both legit full backs who play both ends of the pitch very well. Tyrone Mings ($13/$3100) has elite CB ability and is deadly in the air, while Ezri Konsa Ngoyo ($10/$2700) does the dirty work (10 clearances vs. Arsenal) and is a great FD play. Emiliano Martinez ($12/$4900) is a really solid keeper and has a very solid defense in front of him, that on top of Brighton being pretty offensively incompetent, makes him a good play, but not consistent enough.
Prediction: Brighton 1 – Aston Villa 1
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