English Premier League 12/5/20
Welcome back to Karma Nation’s EPL Soccer preview article. We had an exciting Champions League week again and had some big scores from our subscribers! Let’s keep the fun rolling with EPL. We have a very interesting 3 game staggered start for both Fanduel and Draftkings starting at 10am EST. Let’s jump right into the game-by-game break down.
Manchester City (-1000) vs. Fulham
West Ham United vs. Manchester United (+100)
Chelsea (-200) vs. Leeds United
We see one massive home favorite in Man City, who rolled 5-0 last weekend over Burnley. We also see Chelsea as a large home favorite vs. Leeds and Manchester United are a very slight away favorite to West Ham. That being said, let’s dive into our breakdown for more info.
Manchester City vs. Fulham-
Man City was back with a vengeance last weekend vs. hapless Burnley putting up a 5 spot on the Clarets. Yet even with that thumping win, City sit 11th in the table while Fulham are in the relegation danger zone at 17th with a mere 7 points. Fulham have allowed the most goals (19) so far this season through 10 games. This is definitely a tough spot for the Cottagers.
Manchester City:
If you don’t start your lineup with 3-4 Man City players, are you even playing DFS? They are a massive home favorite, the game has almost a 4 implied total from Vegas and they are rested after a rotation squad played Porto in the UCL. Kevin De Bruyne ($23) is the most expensive player on the slate and while he is capable of popping off (67.8 FD fpts. Match Day 1 vs. Wolves) he has been more pedestrian of late with 3 of the last 5 games scoring under 20 fpts. Riyad Mahrez ($20) was a superhero last week netting a hat-trick and because of that, he is now $20. He is obviously in play here, historically he has not had explosive goal scoring games back to back but I don’t put much in such “stats”. Raheem Sterling ($17) has been sputtering this season but Pep assured the media he is still involved in the squads plans and I would not be surprised to see him here as this is as “get right” of a spot as you could hope for. Gabriel Jesus ($19) is a great Mahrez pivot, his floor is 0 but he has great goal scoring odds just like Mahrez. If you want to shove in another City mid/forward but still want a pricey piece elsewhere, I think Ilkay Gundogan ($10) is worth a shot, he seems to show up in some odd spots and could pay off the cheap price tag. Defensively, Joao Cancelo ($15) would be top play if he starts but I assume Ben Mendy ($13) gets the nod again and is an excellent play. Ruben Dias ($9) is the cheap CB play… he won’t see a ton of defensive stats but should net the clean sheet points. Ederson ($14) is pricey but he is almost guaranteed the win and clean sheet, but the upside isn’t there as he won’t be challenged often, if at all.
Fulham:
Even in GPP Fulham are not worth it in my opinion. On DraftKings Ivan Cavaliero ($3500) is worth a punt since he is on PK duty. But at $11 on FD he seems to be priced about right. Defensively, Joachim Andersen ($7) is the cheapest projected starter and he’s a massive CB underdog… lock him in cash and move on. If you want to pivot off that chalk, Tosin Adarabioyo ($11) has had some big games lately (23.4 at Leicester last week). Alphonse Areola ($7) has a decent chance to hit value even in this matchup due to the sheer volume of shots he sees. 35 saves in 9 games is impressive but 16 goals against is what holds him back from massive games.
Prediction: Manchester City 4 – Fulham 0
West Ham United vs. Manchester United-
This game is the most competitive of the slate as it sees 5th place West Ham host 9th place Manchester United in a projected low scoring affair. United may be very distracted as they dropped the ball vs. PSG midweek and now find themselves in a must win situation vs. RB Leipzig next week to advance in the UCL.
West Ham:
Michail Antonio is out once again due to his lingering hamstring issue that apparently was pushed too much too soon. The Hammers are very cheap considering they are a very slight underdog and make some great GPP plays. Jarrod Bowen ($15) had a big game vs. Aston Villa last week with a goal and an assist but his floor is 0 and is not as great of a play without Antonio up top. Sebastian Haller ($15) should be in that striker spot and has shown abilities to score but his consistency is nil. I think Tomas Soucek ($13) is always a GPP dart since he is a top player in the air and gets excellent service from Bowen or Cresswell usually on set pieces. I don’t think Aaron Cresswell ($14) is worth his price tag but he makes for a great GPP correlation play with Soucek or even Haller. Angelo Ogbonna ($10) had a header goal last week and is a solid CB that should see a good amount of work for peripherals. Lukasz Fabianski ($9) is pretty cheap and has scored well vs. some of the bigger sides this season already… vs. Villa: 19.5 pts, at Liverpool: 7 pts, vs. Man City: 15.5 pts, and @ Leicester: 17pts.
Manchester United:
Liked I stated earlier, I’m not sure what kind of side United put out… even if they roll out the A squad, how focused or fresh are they? I think Bruno Fernandes ($22) is the safest play for the Red Devils though, he has PK duty and while he is losing sets to Alex Telles ($13) he still has excellent open play value. He has scored in 3 games running in the EPL though. Marcus Rashford ($19) hurt his back and came out vs. PSG, sounds like he is okay and it was precautionary but I don’t think you can trust him for that price. For how great Edinson Cavani ($17) was as a second half substitute vs. Southampton last weekend, he was equally as terrible vs. PSG midweek. I doubt he starts seeing as Leipzig loom large, or if he does, a 45-60 min game is almost guaranteed. Defensively, Alex Telles ($13) is pretty cheap for how big of a role he has at the club already. Victor Lindelof ($8) is a cheap CB in a game that should be defensive. David De Gea ($12) is not worth it to me… either pay up for Ederson or Mendy or down for any of the 3 underdogs.
Prediction: West Ham United 1 – Manchester United 1
Chelsea vs. Leeds United-
Chelsea was sensational in Spain midweek with their B squad dismantling Sevilla. Led by Olivier Giroud ($12) with 4 goals… yes, all 4, they looked unstoppable and kept a clean sheet to boot. They have clinched the top spot in their UCL group so all eyes will be back on the league as they sit 3rd currently. Best news of all was that Chelsea has zero players with injuries currently, everyone is fit. Leeds is an exciting squad who likes to show up in the biggest moments and love to provide a good amount of fantasy goodness on both sides of the ball.
Chelsea:
Timo Werner ($21) is still the main man for the Blues but he has been scuffling a bit lately with the move out wide. Tammy Abraham ($17) has been in better form as the center striker, while Hakim Ziyech ($17) has also struggled a bit lately but scored multiple times for Morocco on the last international break. Mason Mount ($15) is the last guy I’d like to mention offensively, unless somehow Giroud starts, but this is the last game. Mount has some set piece duties, and has been much more comfortable with the formation and squad Frank Lampard has been rolling with of late. Defensively, Reece James ($12) has a good chance for offensive and defensive stats. Both CBs are pretty pricey but Thiago Silva ($13) has been really good this season with 4 of the last 5 games over 18 fpts. Edouard Mendy ($13) aka the savior, has been a brick wall and a wonderful bit of fresh air in the Chelsea goal. Mendy has 5 clean sheets in 6 PL starts allowing just 1 goal while recording 8 saves. I think he could be in for a real test though here with Leeds, he’s either the top scoring goalkeeper on the slate or he suffers a low score and costs you cash.
Leeds:
Leeds love to shoot, they love to play fast and open and that is fun to watch but man it’s not the best strategy for success in the Premier League. Patrick Bamford ($17) is their lead striker but he has been struggling a bit as well lately, Jack Harrison ($15) and Mateuz Klich ($14) both have double digit point floors with 20+ pt. upside, but Chelsea’s midfield defense is what makes them elite defensively. Raphina ($12) scored late vs. Everton and is a nice cheap play to add to a City stack. Robin Koch ($10) is the best defensive play for them and has had 11+ points in each of his last 3 games. Ilan Messlier ($8) broke the slate last week putting up 41 fpts. vs. Everton as he kept a CS on 8 saves and got the win. He is boom or bust though, as he has 5 games of under 5 fpts.
Prediction: Chelsea 3- Leeds 1
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
