English Premier League 12/29/20
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! Boxing Day 2020 was an enormous success for us at Karma with both FD lines hitting cash and GPPs and DK hitting cash lines. EPL has continued its magnificent run of consecutive days and even with a postponed game Monday due to Covid, we hit all contests. We have 4 games that kick off ALL at 1pm for the DK slate and Fanduel added the 3pm slate to make it a big 5 game slate. So, I’m here to break it down for you all from Karma Nation! Let’s jump right into the odds for this slate that starts kicking off at 1pm EST:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal (+125)
Burnley (+137) vs. Sheffield United
Southampton (+120) vs. West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion vs. Leeds United (-111)
Manchester United (-175) vs. Wolves 3 PM
-One big home favorite in Man Utd, (only on FD main slate) one small away favorite in Leeds and then 3 very even games. I’m so happy to have such a big slate with lineups coming out at the same time I don’t even care that the biggest favorite is the late game on FD. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Brighton vs. Arsenal-
Arsenal shocked everyone by playing the kids vs. Chelsea… then they went out and embarrassed the Blues to a 3-1 victory. This might get them off the freefall and back into form, and Brighton is a nice opponent to have to keep it rolling against. Brighton hasn’t won a match since November 21st vs. Villa.
Brighton:
Neal Maupay ($15/$7900) is the best goal threat for the squad and is coming off a nice performance vs. West Ham in which he got on the scoreboard. Pascal Gross ($14/$9300) remains the top facilitator on the squad and is wildly priced on DK! His floor is very solid but he needs to have goal to hit value there. Solly March ($13/$8300) is a good player who has had a really solid season but has struggle a little coming back from his latest injury, I think he’s a fine dart throw on FD but not worth the 8300 on DK. Lewis Dunk ($13/$4100) scored last game as well and has started to regain his dominant CB form, unfortunately clean sheets haven’t been very common of late and hurt his upside. Adam Webster ($8/$3800) has been pretty solid of late and is cheap on both sites; he plays more of a CB role in the 3 at the back formation but has 3 shots on goal the last 2 games at least. Robert Sanchez ($8/$4600) is the full-time keeper now and has done a decent job for the Seagulls, but the defense just isn’t very strong in front of him. Pricing is pretty soft, so I don’t see the need to pay down for him.
Arsenal:
Baby Gunners came in and made their presence felt! They are likely to be without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang again but Gabriel Martinelli ($13/$6500) and Alexander Lacazette ($18/$7300) should start up front again. Bukayo Saka ($11/$7900) has been in great form and continues to impress as a makeshift left wingback. Gabriel Magalhaes is out with Covid still so Pablo Mari ($5/$2500) is minimum price on both sites. Kieran Tierney ($13/$4700) has been pretty decent of late and gets a nice matchup to attack from his spot. Bernd Leno ($12/$5000) still is not a safe keeper play, no clean sheets since November 22nd.
Prediction: Brighton 1 – Arsenal 1
Burnley vs. Sheffield United:
Talk about a snooze-fest… do we need to break this one down? 17th and 20th respectively in the table with each scoring a league low 8 goals apiece, this is bound to be a low scoring affair.
Burnley:
Their most consistent striker is Chris Wood ($17/$6200) but really that is a stretch. Dwight McNeil is set to miss out again so all set pieces should fall to Ashley Westwood ($16/$6800) but on this slate, not sure if a few set pieces is the upside we need. Defensively, I like all the Burnley defenders, James Tarkowski ($15) and Ben Mee ($13) are pretty pricey but have very solid floors. Matthew Lowton ($11/$3800) is a more defensive minded full-back and has had some very nice peripheral games. Charlie Taylor ($10/$4600) is the more offensive-minded full back and had a beautiful assist vs. Wolves last week. Nick Pope ($14/$4900) is the most expensive keeper on FD but middle of the pack on DK where I like him a ton. He’s really, really good and that defense is solid.
Sheffield United:
Like I stated last slate, Sander Berge is done for the year with a hamstring injury; John Lundstram is suspended and probably done with the club come January transfer window and Ollie McBurnie came back as a sub on Saturday but then reinjured his shoulder and should be out. Oliver Burke left that game vs. Everton with back spasms and is questionable as well. So who does that leave? Honestly, no one, but David McGoldrick ($17/$7100) did score two vs. United and provided an assist two games ago vs. Brighton. Oliver Norwood ($9/$4800) is the benefactor of a lot of those injuries but his form has not been good this season, like most of the Blades. Ethan Ampadu ($9) continues to get starts in the midfield but only contributes tackles and interceptions, nothing else since he plays deep and the team can’t keep a clean sheet. Aaron Ramsdale ($7/$4400) is cheap but his upside is not enough for me here… Burnley doesn’t shoot a ton and the Blades are a disaster everywhere, still.
Prediction: Burnley 1 – Sheffield United 0
Southampton vs. West Ham United:
These two sit next to each other in the standings, 9th and 10th respectively and have had up and downs to their seasons, mostly due to injury thus far. Danny Ings had been seen training on Monday but I doubt they rush him back from the hamstring injury, maybe he subs on. Michail Antonio is in a similar spot for the Hammers, he’s trained a bit but isn’t to be rushed back.
Southampton:
Theo Walcott ($14/$6600) really disappointed me on Saturday, I still like him but his floor is nil. James Ward-Prowse ($15/$8600) continues to be underpriced for Fanduel but is probably about right for DK now, he is a free-kick king and West Ham commit plenty of dumb fouls. Vestergaard is now ruled out for about a month so Jack Stephens ($7/$3200) is in play once again. He had a great 18 pt game last time out. Both fullbacks Ryan Bertrand ($8/$4900) and Kyle Walker-Peters ($8/$5100) are decent plays here, but they each got a good hike up on DK. Alex McCarthy ($10/$5200) is a very solid keeper behind a good defense and kept a clean sheet against Fulham last time out.
West Ham United:
The Hammers are hard to get right… Jarrod Bowen ($17/$8800) was subbed off at half last game due to the team’s lack of performance. (2-2 draw to Brighton) Tomas Soucek ($15/$6100) is on some sort of tear this season in the air… the dude is massive and has wreaked havoc on opposing defenses with 4 headed goals this season. Aaron Cresswell ($12/$6400) is the main set piece taker for this squad and those two are a great correlation duo for GPPs. I locked Ben Johnson ($6/$3400) last game and he produced a really well taken goal for dirt cheap. His price didn’t rise on either site really and he should start in that wing-back role again with Arthur Masuaku out long term. Lukasz Fabianski ($11/$4500) has not had a good run of late, 6 goals against the last 3 matches with 7 saves during that timeframe.
Prediction: Southampton 1 – West Ham United 1
West Bromwich Albion vs. Leeds United-
West Brom sit 19th in the table with only 11 goals scored in 15 games. Leeds is currently 12th on the season while scoring 25 goals, and both squads have conceded league high 30 goals.
West Brom:
Matheus Pereira ($16/$8400) is the best player on this squad and does just about everything for them. He is their energy as well, so if he isn’t running good, this squad is in for a bad day at the office. Conor Gallagher ($14/$5200) took a lot of set pieces when Pereira was suspended but plays more defensively in open play to really generate a lot of offensive stats. Karlan Grant ($14/$3900) is a punt F on DK and while Leeds has been better defensively as of late, they still play very open and are susceptible to the counter. Darnell Furlong ($12/$5400) is one of their top offensive weapons as a full back, while Semi Ajayi ($8/$2900) scored again on the weekend at near minimum price. Sam Johnstone ($9/$4200) is a good keeper on a sub-par team… he sees a lot of shots, and Leeds take a lot of shots… he’s the top GPP keeper for me on the slate, could easily get 35 points or just as easily get -5.
Leeds:
This squad is a tough one to peg since they have a lot of really solid players who spread the wealth. Patrick Bamford ($18/$9100) scored a penalty on the weekend since Mateusz Klich ($16/$6400) decided to let him have one… okay, talk about a tough fantasy dilemma. Bamford has solid upside but if he has PK duty full time, then that sets him a little higher. Rodrigo ($17/$7000) has been really good for this squad of late and came over from Spain highly regarded. Raphinha ($13/$9700) has been electric though and his DK price is OUTRAGEOUS, almost as much as how ridiculous his FD price is in the opposite direction. Last 4 for FD scoring: 24.8, 16.2, 33.6 and 13.6. Stuart Dallas ($13/$6200) and Ezgjan Alioski ($8/$5500) are great defenders who put up big offensive numbers, (Alioski is a midfielder on FD still for some reason) but are pricey. Ilan Messlier ($10/$5400) is the most expensive keeper on DK and is in one of the best matchups you could have all year.
Prediction: West Bromwich Albion 1 – Leeds United 4
Manchester United vs. Wolves-
United sit 4th in the table and are on a really nice run, unbeaten last 5 games overall, while Wolves seem to be struggling with only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 5, and sit 11th in the standings now.
United:
United starts with Bruno Fernandes ($22), who has over 100 fpts in his last two games… yeah, he’s been that good. Marcus Rashford ($21) is questionable and this being the late game makes him very risky. He remains a good GPP play and not a complete disaster if he misses out as they have pivots but are much cheaper than he is. Edison Cavani ($16) is in good form and has been given lots of praise from Ole of late; he is a nice mid-tier attacking option from the biggest favorites. Alex Telles ($14) was left on the bench on the weekend, not sure if he was just a little fatigued or what but if he’s in, he has a nice upside offensively. Eric Bailly ($6) is a cheap CB option but if he is not in, you have no alternatives likely. David De Gea ($13) is a world class keeper but his defense has been unreliable and his focus hasn’t been there in the league matches thus far, I don’t love him in this match as Wolves could squeak one in.
Wolves:
Pedro Neto ($17) remains the guy steering the car for Wolves without Jimenez taking all the attention. He has 4 goals and 3 assists on the season and has been very lively lately with Daniel Podence ($16) being his opposite winger. Adama Traore ($8) is dirt cheap and hasn’t scored in over a year… but his pace is blistering and he’s a physical specimen so…. Yeah, why not vs. United? Defensively, Romain Saiss ($7) scored vs. Spurs on the weekend and has a nice floor when in a back 4. He’s a cheap option on a big underdog, if you were to take him, pair him with Rui Patricio ($7) for the full GPP leverage stack. Otherwise, pass on him.
Prediction: Manchester United 3 – Wolves 1
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
