English Premier League 12/19/20
Welcome back to Karma Nation’s EPL Soccer preview article. Wednesday was a fun 6 game slate, I myself missed on main but made up for it with a nice win on the late slate on FD, and won both slates on DK barely. Thursday was also nice for FD as I had just enough to cash everywhere. But enough about the past, Saturday morning brings us 3 more EPL games as the holiday jam-packed fixture schedule is upon us! Let’s jump right into the odds on this staggered start slate kicking off at 10am EST:
Southampton vs. Manchester City (-222)
Everton (+145) vs. Arsenal
Newcastle (+162) vs. Fulham
One big away favorite in Man City and then really two toss ups. This is going to be a very good GPP style slate because of that. The only thing we need to watch for is rotation since all these teams played mid-week. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Southampton vs. Manchester City-
One of these teams is 3rd in the league and one is 9th and it’s not who you would’ve expected pre-season that’s for sure. Southampton drew at Arsenal midweek, while Man City drew at home to lowly West Brom. I think the odds are way off on this one and while we love to stack City, I think 1-2 plays is more realistic on this kind of slate.
Southampton:
Danny Ings ($17) let me down in a big way vs. Arsenal with 3.9 fpts. Theo Walcott ($14) scored the revenge goal in that game and has played pretty well. James Ward-Prowse ($15) is still the engine that makes this Saints side soar with his dangerous free kicks terrorizing opposing goalies. All the defenders had very low scoring games vs. Arsenal but I think both CBs are viable in this match up, Jannik Vestergaard ($14) and Jan Bednarek ($13). The pure GPP goalie is Alex McCarthy ($7) as he put up 9.5 fpts. last match and certainly should see 6-7 shots on goal from the lethal but struggling a bit City attack.
Manchester City:
Kevin De Bruyne ($24) is the most expensive player on the slate by $3. That’s pretty crazy and while he hasn’t put up massive numbers of late, he had 25 points in just peripherals vs. West Brom. Pep came out and said that resting KDB wasn’t an option since he is too important to the squad at the moment. The real question is who starts in the front 3. Sergio Aguero ($20) is questionable but I see him projected to start on a few different sites, and if so I like his chances more so for cheap on DraftKings at only $6700. Riyad Mahrez ($18) is always a solid option and can have huge games but unfortunately his floor is sub 10 pts. Ferran Torres ($16) seems to have fallen out of favor a bit but he was red hot last month and if he gets a start, I like him for a nice discount. Defensively, John Stones ($14) is getting a little pricey for me, but that City defense has been really good. Aymeric Laporte ($8) may get a spot start but seems to have lost his spot for now. Joao Cancelo ($15) is the best offensive defender on this slate by far and if you have the cash he is always in play. Ederson ($14) had the floor game last time out, we knew he wouldn’t see a lot of shots and once he let one in, it was over for him. No clean sheet, no win, he scored 0.5 pts. I think he will see more volume this game as Southampton are tied for 3rd with 25 goals scored this season.
Prediction: Southampton 1 – Manchester City 2
Everton vs. Arsenal-
Arsenal continue to struggle and Everton kept it rolling with a nice hard fought victory over Leicester to move them up to 5th in the table while Arsenal’s draw to Southampton saw them fall to 15th. James Rodriguez remains out for Everton which is a big blow, but they’ve been playing pretty well without him the last 2 games.
Everton:
The Toffees continued their strong play vs. Leicester and Richarlison ($19) broke his goal scoring drought like PEA did midweek (9/26 was his last goal). Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($21) had a little bit of a down game last time, but his ability to grab multiple goals makes him an elite upside play. (11 goals on the season) James continues to be out and that means more Gylfi Sigurdsson ($14) for cheap! He didn’t have nearly the game last time like he did vs. Chelsea but still he created 3 chances and was active in the attack build up. I totally screwed up last time… I had minimum price Robin Olsen who got the spot start for Jordan Pickford ($11) but that gave me extra money to get off Mason Holgate ($12) who was $9 last slate and go up to Yerry Mina ($11)… which was disastrous. This game I think the value play will be Seamus Coleman ($9) back from injury. He could even take a few set pieces. I have no issue with Pickford or Olsen for that matter as this defense has been spot on of late with back to back clean sheets.
Arsenal:
Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang ($19) finally broke his goal-less streak last time out, it had been over a month (11/1) and honestly, his supporting cast is more to blame than anything else for this talented striker. Willian ($15) did not start last game and should feature here but has been very underwhelming this season, while fellow front 3 member Alexander Lacazette ($16) has been equally terrible and should return to the squad after some rest. For value keep an eye on Joe Willock ($6) or Meszut Ozil ($5) as one of these should start in their injury and suspension ravaged midfield. This could be a David Luiz ($11) match without Gabriel Magalhaes due to suspension and that means own goals and penalties are in play! Hector Bellerin ($9) is a full back that is very aggressive in his tackles and is willing to shoot from anywhere, things I like to see for DFS purposes. Bernd Leno ($9) has 4 straight games with fewer than 5 point. I think this Arsenal sinking ship is one to avoid, especially defensively.
Prediction: Everton 2 – Arsenal 0
Newcastle vs. Fulham-
Newcastle got absolutely thrashed in the last 15 minutes of their game vs. Leeds mid-week. My GPP pick of Darlow was looking good until they gave up 3 goals late and got wrecked 5-2. Unsure if it was conditioning or if they knew they couldn’t equalize so might as well not push it. Fulham on the other hand looked solid again in their 0-0 draw with Brighton. They still remain in the relegation zone but are starting to play much better team soccer.
Newcastle:
I loved Ryan Fraser ($11) last game when I saw he was back. He is definitely in play again if given the start. I’d expect it to be Jonjo Shelvey ($10) so they don’t over extend Fraser so quickly though. Callum Wilson ($18) is their main scoring threat up front and provided an assist vs. Leeds. Dwight Gayle ($14) was given the game off last time out, so I expect him to be in the lineup and is a great GPP kind of play. Matt Ritchie ($6) got the game off too vs. Leeds and should be thrust back into the lineup and a lock for cash games; he’s a $13 defender not $6! Karl Darlow ($10) is a fine play, Fulham aren’t a hot offensive team but that defense has been atrocious in front of him.
Fulham:
Ademola Lookman ($17) had another solid game vs. Brighton (18.2 pts) and continues his tear up on the wing. Ivan Cavaleiro ($14) has been starting up top and takes some set pieces plus PKs but could be rotated out for the finally healthy Aleksandar Mitrovic ($13). Mitro could be the elite GPP dart play as he could score 50 or 0 just as easily. Joachim Andersen ($9) remains pretty cheap and had a great 23.2 fpts. last time out. He might finally be settling into his role with the Cottagers. Ola Aina ($11) has been really solid as a full back and Newcastle haven’t been defending anyone well, he could get forward a lot this game. Alphonse Areola ($8) was solid and got his much needed clean sheet vs. Brighton. He’s only allowed 8 goals over the last 7 games with 26 saves over that span!
Prediction: Newcastle 0 – Fulham 2
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
