English Premier League 12/16/20
Welcome back to Karma Nation’s EPL Soccer preview article. Man, what a weird day yesterday was. We saw away favorites Chelsea lose to Wolves in the 95th minute. Then, Man City who were -1111 favorites to win drew at home to lowly West Bromwich Albion. Let’s put that in the past and get ready for Wednesday’s massive 6 game slate! FanDuel gives us the full 6 games while DraftKings split it up into two 3-game slates starting at 1pm and 3pm. Let’s jump right into the odds on this stacked slate:
1pm:
Arsenal (+115) vs. Southampton
Leeds United (-133) vs. Newcastle United
Leicester City (+105) vs. Everton
3pm:
Fulham vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (+150)
Liverpool (-125) vs. Tottenham
West Ham United (+105) vs. Crystal Palace
Leeds United is the biggest favorite on the slate… that should say it all. Going to be a wild one and there definitely will be goals. I even think Liverpool -125 is too high for how good Tottenham have been so far this year. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Arsenal vs. Southampton-
Arsenal is in shambles… and Southampton sits in 4th! Shocking to say the least considering who these teams are, but honestly Mikel Arteta is as good as gone and this team is just waiting for life to be injected into their veins. The big signings have really lacked of late for the Gunners and it is showing.
Arsenal:
Arsenal are really struggling right now, they’ve lost 4 of the last 5 EPL games and drew the other one to Leeds 0-0. Most recently they were shut out at home to Burnley who only scored 5 goals all season before the 1-0 victory at the Emirates. There isn’t much to like but if you want to take a stab in GPP since it’ll be more spread out ownership, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($18) is about as cheap as you could imagine for someone who has PKs and is the best striker on the squad. Willian ($15) started out on fire then quickly became a wet blanket and looks unenthused to be in the red kit to say the least. He has only gone over 10 fpts. 3 times this season. Rob Holding ($10) is a good value in a matchup that should provide some defensive peripherals, he tends to yo-yo a bit too much to be cash friendly but has double digit upside. Bernd Leno ($10) is a good keeper but has a bad defense and bad offense in front of him making it difficult to get CS/Wins.
Southampton:
Danny Ings ($19) is back! The man was supposed to miss the rest of 2020 but came back as a sub on the 7th and scored then assisted a goal vs. Sheffield. He is so good and seems like he didn’t miss a beat, love this price against a very shaky and rocky Arsenal backline. James Ward-Prowse ($16) is the best free kick taker in the PL and it isn’t close. This guy has a bazooka for a right foot and can curl them Beckham-esque. He will definitely benefit from Ingsy back up top but should lose PK duty. Both CBs have been elite this season, Jannik Vestergaard ($15) has 3 goals, and Jan Bednarek ($13) has a goal and an assist. Both full backs are good but have not been their usual whip-it-in selves. If you want an attacker Kyle Walker-Peters ($10) has seemed to be the livelier of the two. Alex McCarthy ($8) has only allowed 5 goals in the last 5 matches getting 2 clean sheets in there as well. I think he is a great cash play Wednesday, even away.
Prediction: Arsenal 1 – Southampton 2
Leeds United vs. Newcastle United-
Biggest favorite on the slate, but they’ve lost back to back games… something seems a little off with this line but Vegas does know a few things.
Leeds:
Leeds love to play an open game, last game vs. West Ham the teams combined for 15 shots on goal. This is great for fantasy but not so great for real life football. They only scored on a PK too… so what do we do here? Patrick Bamford ($20) remains their lone striker but has stumbled a bit of late. Mateusz Klich ($16) seems to have PK duty which boosts his value a bit but I really like what I’ve seen from Raphinha ($13) on the wing, he racked up almost 25 pts just from peripherals last time out. Luke Aiyling ($14) played CB last game and should do so again this match, he racked up 22.3 fpts. without a clean sheet bonus. Ilan Meslier ($14) seems overpriced in this matchup but Newcastle has not been great offensively thus far with only 14 goals on the year.
Newcastle United:
Callum Wilson ($17) is the best offensive player on the squad but has been a complete yo-yo… last 5 games: 5.6, 43, 5.2, 31.3, 3… so that means he’s due for another big game right? I’m interested to see if Dwight Gayle ($12) gets the start on the wing, he came on as a substitute for the first time all season and scored a cracker of a goal vs. West Brom. Jonjo Shelvey ($10) is always in play, especially if Matt Ritchie ($7) gets rotated since he’s just back from injury like Gayle. Ryan Fraser ($9) has been given the green light to return to the pitch as well and is a nice boost to the midfield; I doubt he starts but if he does great GPP shot. Ciaran Clark ($11) should be in the middle of the defense and we won’t know if Fernandez is back until lineups release but all signs point to him being cleared off the covid list. Karl Darlow ($7) is a great GPP keeper, Leeds love to shoot and he could easily end up as the top keeper if he can keep them out.
Prediction: Leeds 0 – Newcastle 1
Leicester City vs. Everton-
James Rodriguez is out again for Everton but on the Leicester side we saw James Maddison finally break out like he did all of last year! This could be an interesting game, could be plenty of peripherals available but both squads seem to play tight vs. other top teams. (Everton 1-0 vs. Chelsea on Saturday)
Leicester:
James Maddison ($16) bagged a brace on his way to 49.3 fpts. vs. Brighton. He linked up with Jamie Vardy ($22) who had a goal and 2 assists in the game, and they finally looked like the 2019 Foxes. Christian Fuchs ($10) continues to start as a full back in a back 3 but keeps producing for a decent price (15 or more 3 of last 5) while Wesley Fofana ($11) puts up good numbers on the other side (21.9 pts last game). Kasper Schmeichel ($12) is a good keeper who has 4 clean sheets on the season but this matchup is not so easy, could be a tough one to really pop in.
Everton:
The Toffees really crushed me Saturday as Chelsea fell to them at Goodison Park 1-0. Leicester is a good defensive team but not as good as Chelsea is, so that would mean Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18) and Richarlison ($17) should have an easier time. DCL has the ceiling while Richarlison’s floor is real solid (no less than 16.9 last 4 games). Gylfi Sigurdsson ($13) started for James and was electric racking up 45 pts, scoring the lone goal via the spot but created 6 chances! I was all over Mason Holgate ($9) vs. Chelsea and could very well do so again vs. Leicester as he put up 20 pts last time out and was only raised $1. Jordan Pickford ($9) continues to be an anomaly, he is not a good keeper but he made a great save to push Reece James’ bomb of a strike off the post to preserve his clean sheet. That was his 2nd of the season and first since game week 1.
Prediction: Leicester City 2 – Everton 1
Fulham vs. Brighton & Hove Albion-
Two pretty bad teams square off here and for some reason Vegas sides with the away squad even though Fulham have been playing some pretty decent football of late. (1-1 draw vs. Liverpool last time out)
Fulham:
Ademola Lookman ($16) has been getting better and better and looked great vs. Liverpool providing the assist for the goal as well as a few other things to grab almost 25 fpts. Ivan Cavaleiro ($12) has been starting up top and takes some set pieces plus PKs. Pretty good floor as he has had no less than 10 pts from his last 4 games. Joachim Andersen ($7) remains cheap because he just doesn’t do enough… 7.8 pts vs. big favorite Liverpool doesn’t get it done. Tosin Adarabioyo ($12) was a clearance machine (11) and has had 3 great games in a row (23.4, 18.2, and 22.5). Alphonse Areola ($9) hasn’t kept a clean sheet in over a month but has had some decent scores, good spot for him.
Brighton:
This squad has been offensively challenged of late and has allowed only 1 fewer goal than Leeds/Fulham. Pascal Gross ($15) has been the only member contributing as he has had no less than 15 pts in each of his last 6 games. Solly March ($13) has been really good as well this season in a kind of wing-back role. I played Lewis Dunk ($8) last weekend and he threw a complete dud with 3.9 pts, he’s tough to trust but another good matchup for a cheap CB. Mat Ryan ($11) is terrible, don’t play him.
Prediction: Fulham 2 – Brighton 1
Liverpool vs. Tottenham-
This match will garner a lot of attention and has some big names in it, but both teams have not been in games with over 2.5 goals very often, so a shootout seems unlikely. Tottenham hasn’t lost in 10 matches though so like I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Liverpool should be favored by as much as they are.
Liverpool:
Mo Salah ($22) is as safe as safe can be, he has a goal in 4 of the last 5 games and in the game he didn’t score he had an assist. Sadio Mane ($18) has really struggled and Diogo Jota being injured seems to have hurt his game and the rest of the squad outside of Salah. Curtis Jones ($11) has looked good and the kid should keep getting starts but this matchup will be much tougher than the Fulham match in which he put up 22.5 pts. Both full-backs have had down years and I don’t think are worth the money here, Fabinho ($10) is a cheap CB vs. Kane/Son so that’s always attractive but could be a cheap sub here if Matip isn’t deemed fit. Alisson ($13) is not worth top money since he even conceded against lowly Fulham.
Tottenham:
Harry Kane ($21) and Heung-Min Son ($20) continue to be the dynamic duo as they combined for the only goal vs. Palace last time out. They do almost all the damage fantasy wise for the squad which is nice to count on. Defensively, Eric Dier ($8) is a very cheap CB who won’t blow it out of the water but can get you double digits pretty easily. Toby Alderweireld ($10) is $2 more and has similar defensive stats but does have a little more of a role on set pieces, which Liverpool has been very vulnerable at without VVD in defense. Hugo Lloris ($8) is a nice price, since the matchup is not too easy, I’d call him more of a GPP pick. (His worst match in the last 5 was last game with 9.5… not bad for cheap.)
Prediction: Liverpool 1 – Tottenham 2
West Ham United vs. Crystal Palace-
West Ham has been on a nice run and sit 7th in the league, while Palace has started to find their own form rising up to 12th in the league now after a very rough start to the season.
West Ham:
Michail Antonio will remain out, and that means more time for Jarrod Bowen ($17) to run the show. He has 2 games of over 20 pts in his last 3. Sebastian Haller ($16) had a monster peripheral game vs. Leeds, with 4 shots on goal and 3 tackles; he’s in play here again. Tomas Soucek ($15) has finally risen to a price I won’t play him at; he’s a beast on set pieces but does so little else. Angelo Ogbonna ($13) had a monster game last time out (40 pts) and is definitely in play here. Lukasz Fabianski ($12) had 6 saves vs. Leeds while allowing 1 goal (a penalty), he has had a really strong campaign and I think is in play for a cash goalie pool.
Crystal Palace:
Wilfried Zaha ($18) has 3 games over 40 pts this season… but his lows are around 5 pts… tough to trust and this is not a great matchup. Eberechi Eze ($13) has been a lightning bolt on the wing… 9 chances created last 2 matches! I think he’s a really nice play to give some salary relief. Gary Cahill ($9) is a decent value; he is the more defensive player of the CB pair but is wily enough to get some stats here and there. Vincente Guaita ($7) is a good keeper who has had a very shaky defense in front of him due to injuries but they are finally starting to get healthy. He does have no less than 10 pts in 4 of his last 5.
Prediction: West Ham United 1 – Crystal Palace 1
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
