English Premier League 12/12/20
Welcome back to Karma Nation’s EPL Soccer preview article. What a bizarre Champions League week… suspended games, and teams crashing out by just not showing up. Happy to have EPL back and we’ve been on a real roll, so let’s keep it going! Once again it’s a 3 game staggered start for both FanDuel and DraftKings starting at 10am EST. Let’s jump right into the game by game break down.
Newcastle (+120) vs. West Bromwich Albion
Manchester United vs. Manchester City (-139)
Everton vs. Chelsea (-133)
Interesting Saturday slate for sure. We get a pretty blah game to start off with then we get a banger Manchester Derby with City the away favorites, and end the day with a very good late game where Chelsea is the favored away side at Goodison Park. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Newcastle vs. West Bromwich Albion-
The least exciting game on paper of the slate sees the Magpies host the Baggies. Newcastle sits 13th in the league with 14 points from 10 games, while West Brom sit 19th with just 6 points from 11 games. Newcastle last time out defeated Crystal Palace 2-0, while West Brom lost 5-1 to that same Crystal Palace squad and will be without they best offensive creator Matheus Pereira who was shown a red card last game.
Newcastle:
Newcastle is a decent squad, who has had some bad injury luck so far this season, and they are set to still be without Ryan Fraser and Allan Saint-Maximin, but Matt Ritchie ($5) may return to the starting lineup and if he does he is a great cash play. Callum Wilson ($18) is the main striker and PK taker for this squad, he is a very good play on this slate but that means you would have to sacrifice a City/United or Chelsea attacking piece most likely. Joelinton ($10) had a huge game vs. Palace last time out, 49 FD fpts with his goal and assist. If Ritchie is not in, Jonjo Shelvey ($9) should be the sole free kick taker in the best matchup you could have, and he’s very affordable, love his upside. Javier Manquillo ($7) is a great value defense play; he had 17 fpts. last game. Karl Darlow ($10) seems to be the cash play on this slate… he’s a home favorite and is priced down a decent amount.
West Bromwich:
No Pereira hurts this side a lot, but I think Connor Gallagher ($15) is the best play from this squad. He has scored in two straight games and has at least 17 FD fpts. in 4 of the last 5 games. Semi Ajayi ($7) remains a cheap defender but even as a CB, West Brom plays a 5 at the back defense that sucks a lot of peripheral stats from the true center backs. He only has 4 games of over 10 fpts. so far this season but is a decent GPP option to pair with Sam Johnstone ($8). Johnstone has been a bright spot for this squad, as he has kept them in a lot of games. Take away the awful game last week when they were down to 10 men for most of the game, he has only conceded 5 goals in the last 6 matches.
Prediction: Newcastle 2– West Bromwich 0
Manchester United vs. Manchester City-
Manchester Derby! Massive match for both these squads and we see United coming back from Germany after being eliminated from the Champions League by Leipzig, while City got to rest most of their squad in an easy win vs. Marseille after they had already clinched the top spot in their UCL group.
United:
Bruno Fernandes ($20) is the engine behind this United machine but like the end of last season, he gets run down and becomes invisible… this packed schedule is sure to wear on him. I think he is more of a GPP play but his cash floor is tough to not like, he has 32, 29, 45, and 60 in his last 4 games. Marcus Rashford ($18) is the main striker and with Martial and Cavani ailing he might be needed in a big way. His form, like most of United, is lacking at the moment. Fred ($8) is a decent punt play due to his peripheral floor. Unfortunately his ceiling is not very high due to his defensive positioning in most matches. Victor Lindelof ($8) is a cheap underdog CB, we love those for FanDuel purposes but he doesn’t seem to be the peripheral vacuum most CB’s are in a traditional 4 in the back system, seeing as he has topped just once in the last 5 games. David De Gea ($9) is a world class goalie at times; he is a GPP only type play.
City:
This City squad is starting to really round into form as they have not lost in the last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw) and more impressively, they have not conceded a single goal during that stretch. This squad is much more rested than United and should see just about everyone available for Pep Guardiola. Kevin De Bruyne ($22) is the best player on this slate and dropped a cool 45 fpts. with a goal and an assist last time out vs. Fulham. Gabriel Jesus ($19) is most likely to start although we saw Sergio Aguero ($20) finally return from injury as a sub mid week. Riyad Mahrez ($18) played vs. Marseille so his spot is in question and many people will be off him after the dud last week, great GPP spot. Raheem Sterling ($17) was my guy last week and he came through with a goal and 31.3 fpts. I love him here again although he has a tough matchup vs. Wan-Bissaka. John Stones ($8) is still a cheap CB and has back to back really nice games with 21 and 11.5 fpts. Ederson ($12) is always tough to trust but he has been a brick wall with the rest of this City defense.
Prediction: Manchester United 0 – Manchester City 3
Everton vs. Chelsea-
I think this is a very interesting game for DFS, could be very open with some exciting plays but Chelsea have tended to play a more controlled and reserved style vs. the other big squads this year. (See: 0-0 draw vs. Tottenham most recently.)
Everton:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($19) remains to be one of the hottest players in the EPL. He has 11 goals on the season and only has 2 games with fewer than 15 fpts. Richarlison ($17) has played some decent soccer so far this season, well aside from his stupid red card that cost him a few games. He too has a nice floor with only 2 games fewer than 15 fpts. James Rodriguez ($16) has made the transition from Real Madrid almost flawlessly as he has really upped the quality of play the Toffees bring to the table. Defensively, Mason Holgate ($8) is a great value if he starts since he has double digit points in both games he has started this season. Jordan Pickford ($7) is rarely in my keeper pool since he makes too many unforced errors to justify his potential ceiling.
Chelsea:
Timo Werner ($21) remains extremely expensive and is not the main striker anymore. I think he is still a fade even after his monster 41.2 fpts. last week vs. Leeds. Mason Mount ($15) is the second most expensive Blues player and is coming off a similarly impressive 40.8 fpt. game vs. Leeds. He has been taking most set pieces since Ziyech remains sidelined. Christian Pulisic ($14) should be back after a slight muscle pull but knowing his injury history, don’t be surprised if he’s resigned to the bench to start. Olivier Giroud ($12) seems to be the center forward of choice and as noted last week, he is the man on form. He had a hat trick in the UCL last week then scored again in the EPL on the weekend before getting this mid-week game off with most of the rest of the starters. Reece James ($10) remains the best fantasy option for the Blues and is the least expensive. His floor is a little lower since he’s a full back but his upside is impressive and he is a true full back playing solid defense to go with his offensive threat. Eduoard Mendy ($14) has been so damn impressive. He has allowed just 2 goals in 7 EPL starts. The issue is he only has 10 saves in those 7 games. If he coughs one up, his chance of making up the CS points is very limited.
Prediction: Everton 1 – Chelsea 2
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
