English Premier League 1/26/21
Welcome back everyone for another Ram’s Random EPL Breakdown! It’s been a while since we’ve had a decent slate! There’s been a lot of FA Cup matches going on and a few matches postponed due to Covid-19 outbreaks, but we have some excellent mid-week matches tomorrow and Wednesday! Let’s start off with Tuesday’s 4 game split slate that has 2 games kicking off at 1pm EST and the other 2 kicking off at 3:15pm. So, I’m here to break it down for you all! Let’s jump right into the odds for this slate that starts kicking off at 1pm EST:
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham United (+138)
Newcastle United vs. Leeds United (-110)
Southampton vs. Arsenal (+125)
West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City (-714)
There is not a single home favorite. This is shocking to see. I feel like Southampton isn’t given the respect they are due after just beating this Arsenal squad in the FA Cup. Manchester City is a massive away favorite, even without Kevin De Bruyne. Leeds is a decent sized away favorite at struggling Newcastle and West Ham is barely a favorite at Palace. With that being said, let’s dive into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham United-
Tale of two different swings here, Crystal Palace are wallowing, with 0 goals scored in their last 3 matches and just 1 win in their last 9 matches, while West Ham are on a serious run, with 5 wins in a row and only 1 loss in their last 10 matches.
Crystal Palace:
Zaha ($17) missed the game against Manchester City but has recovered enough to start tomorrow according to Roy Hodgson. He’s their best player by far and without him they really have no offensive flow at all. Christian Benteke ($15) has been in terrible form but is always able to score in bunches, West Ham are decent defensively so I wouldn’t say his chances are likely but he’s a GPP play for sure. Eberechi Eze ($12) has been a really bright spot for the Palace squad, but just doesn’t have the consistency to put up decent numbers. James Tomkins is out injured which is a huge blow to the backline… Gary Cahill ($7) is in line to start again and is a cheap full back that should see plenty of action from the Hammers going forward. Vicente Guiata ($9) is feast or famine, he either scores 20+ or he scores negative, it’s a real problem and that’s why he’s a GPP only option especially with some of the value that is opening up.
West Ham:
Michail Antonio ($19) is back and has scored in two straight. He’s a huge part of West Ham’s attack and really unlocks others like Jarrod Bowen ($18) and Said Benrahma ($11). Bowen scored vs. West Brom as well (Which isn’t a great accomplishment but hey), but did nothing else. Benrahma is my GPP dart call of the week for goal scorer, my buddy pointed him out to me last week and after watching some of the tape, he seems to be flowing to the right areas and is definitely due to capitalize in a big way. Craig Dawson ($9) has been an amazing addition to this defense, they have been really solid since he joined and he is still criminally cheap given his 15+ point upside. Victor Coufal ($14) and Aaron Cresswell ($13) have been top full backs this season and have really put up big numbers at times. I rarely pay up at defense in cash, as they are even more volatile than higher priced strikers, but Coufal hasn’t had single digit points since December 5th, so I’d say he’s pretty safe. Lukasz Fabianski ($10) is most likely the chalk cash keeper; he’s way too cheap for facing a squad that can’t score.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 0 – West Ham United 2
Newcastle United vs. Leeds United:
Newcastle is in free fall. They’ve lost 5 straight, haven’t won in 10 matches, and haven’t scored in 4 games. Not great news as they now sit 16th just 7 points from the relegation zone. Leeds has had really nice moments, but also seem to forget who they are at long periods of time. They too have lost 3 straight, and haven’t scored in those 3 games. This could be a tough one, but I think I have a good read on it.
Newcastle:
Callum Wilson ($18) remains the top scoring option for the magpies, but hasn’t scored since December 19th. Ryan Fraser ($9) had that horrible red card two matches ago, but is a solid option if the starters line up right. Matt Ritchie ($8) is not projected to start currently and after the poor performance Jonjo Shelvey ($10) put in on Saturday vs. Villa, I highly doubt he starts. Emile Krafth ($5) could be in line to start and he is minimum price against a team that loves to bomb away. Karl Darlow ($7) should see plenty of shots, the issue has been that he’s had no chance to save any lately since they’ve been of way too high quality.
Leeds:
Here’s the dilemma… Leeds is priced as the big favorite they are, but their form is less than ideal. Patrick Bamford ($21) is a really tough play… he has very little floor, but he can score in bunches (10 goals on the season). Rodrigo ($18) is my favorite play here after looking at it for a while. When he starts, he’s been a consistent double digit fantasy point scorer. His scoring record is not nearly the same, with only 3 on the campaign but he’s been getting more of a run of late. Raphinha ($14) was my guy for a solid month but he sat a game, and then put in a real dud last time out. If he gets back in the squad, I love the play vs. a truly awful Newcastle defense. Harrison ($16), Klich ($15) and Phillips ($12) are all in the same bucket, they have great games then games that they do nothing. Phillips is my favorite play if you are looking for cheap exposure, but he sits pretty defensively a lot of the time. I played Stuart Dallas ($14) last time, and that’s the time he does nothing (3.9 fpts). Woo. He had a great run of 20+ games but just as Leeds has sputtered, he too has suffered immensely. He’s still the only defensive play I’d trust as their chance of a clean sheet is always sketchy. Ilan Messlier ($12) is set to return (thank god because Casilla is as dusty as the plains in the Midwest), but I still don’t love his upside here. Newcastle doesn’t put a ton of shots on goal and his defense is not strong enough to guarantee a shutout.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1 – Leeds United 2
Southampton vs. Arsenal:
These two squads meet again; a mere 5 days after the Saints booted the Gunners from the FA Cup 1-0. An own goal by Gabriel was the only score of the night and both squads had played their 1B sides, not even their B squads in the tie.
Southampton:
Danny Ings ($17) returns to lead the line and while he hasn’t signed a long-term deal, he is still very much in the Saints plans for the rest of the campaign and beyond. He played 85 minutes and registered just 1 shot on goal on Thursday, so I think the play is more GPP oriented. James Ward-Prowse ($16) is still the free-kick king and is ALWAYS dangerous. Arsenal give away a lot of cheap fouls around the area, so definitely be aware. Che Adams ($15) is the only other offensive weapon I’d like to play but I think I’d just find the $2 for Ingsy. I’ve been seeing some noise that Jake Vokins ($5) may get a start here… and if he does that’s a great value spot as well in defense. Oh and Yan Valery ($5) is finally back healthy and is min price as well… Southampton should have great value but they are full backs not CBs. Alex McCarthy ($8) is very cheap and this defense has been playing pretty well, he is fully in my player pool.
Arsenal:
The Gunners have been playing really well in the league of late, unbeaten in last 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) and have clawed their way back into 11th, just 2 points behind their opponent. Arteta has embraced playing the kids over the older guys and it has completely turned around their season. Bukayo Saka ($16) has been on fire with 3 goals and an assist over the last 5 games. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($22) missed the last game due to personal reasons and it’s possible he misses this game too, but his form has been lacking. Alexander Lacazette ($20) has been the lone striker and has over 20+ fpts in 3 of the last 4 games, including a 61.6 pt outburst vs. West Brom. If you need a value forward, Granit Xhaka ($8) is always a good punt. He can get on the scoresheet randomly and is always good or some tackles and clearances as a defensive mid. Gabriel Magalhaes ($10) is too cheap, he’s a big clearance magnet and while he did have that OG vs. the Saints on Thursday, he will look to atone quickly. Bernd Leno ($11) has been playing really, really well. A solid play but I think GPP only since there are safer spots to attack.
Prediction: Southampton 1 – Arsenal 1
West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City-
West Brom still sit 19th in the table with only 15 goals scored in 19 games. Manchester City sits 2nd, 2 points behind Manchester United but with a game in hand. The Citizens have scored 31 goals on the season but have only allowed 13. Aston Villa is 2nd with 18 goals allowed and that’s with 1 fewer games played, truly a remarkable turnaround from a year ago.
West Brom:
Matheus Pereira ($16) is the best player on this squad and does just about everything for them. He’s got 3 goals in the last 2 games (2 penalties). He’s had double digits in every game since Thanksgiving here in the States. Robert Snodgrass ($9) is back from the dead and looked good in his first match for the baggies. He didn’t take any set pieces in the match but look for him to take some role in that soon if he keeps performing. Kyle Bartley ($10) has been starting alongside Ajayi in the middle and has 5 double digit games in the last 6. Sam Johnstone ($6) is a deep GPP Hail Mary only… City has been much more surgical with their attack and hasn’t peppered the goal nearly as much as in past. Johnstone could easily get 2 saves and allow 4.
Manchester City:
Kevin De Bruyne is out for a few weeks, so this is where we see what City is really made of. This is one of the best matchups they could hope for without their star midfielder. My lineup construction began with plugging in the baby goat, as my buddy Ben has dubbed him, Phil Foden ($17). Foden last time out vs. Villa did not score or assist a goal but still put up almost 26 fpts. with his 6 chances created leading the way in the attack. If Gabriel Jesus ($19) starts up top and Raheem Sterling ($21) is on the wing, I love Sterling. If Sterling is the false 9 again, fade. Ilkay Gundogan ($15) has been on fire of late, and sure it was a late PK goal vs. Villa but still he now has 4 in the last 5. I was all over Bernardo Silva ($13) last game out as he was due, but this time out I think I’ll pay up for a few safer pieces. Joao Cancelo ($15) is the safest stud defender out there. The clean sheet equity here is huge and his ability to rack up chances created on top of his defensive stats make him elite. Oleksandr Zinchenko ($8) is probably going to start on the opposite side with Kyle Walker still working his way back from a slight muscle issue and is a good value option. Ederson ($14) has 8 clean sheets in his last 9 games… that’s insane, but who was the 1 team who scored on him? Oh it’s this West Brom team! They snuck one by the Brazilian and he only had 1 save in the 1-1 draw before Christmas.
Prediction: West Bromwich Albion 0 – Manchester City 2
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFS Karma Soccer Lead)
