Champions League Group Stage Match Day 5

Welcome back for the second part of Match Day 5! We continue to have 2 early games on these group stages but then we get a 6-game main slate. I keep crushing the early slates then making one wrong move on my main cash line for the 6 game slates. I hope you take what you read here and use it to not make the same mistakes! Let’s start by breaking down the current odds with all games starting a 3pm EST:

Sevilla vs. Chelsea (+145)

Borussia Dortmund (-167) vs. Lazio

Club Brugge (+110) vs. Zenit St. Petersburg

Ferencvarosi vs. Barcelona (-200)

Juventus (-400) vs. Dynamo Kyiv

Manchester United vs. Paris Saint Germain (+137)

We get a HUGE home favorite in Juventus while we see 2 slight road favorites in Chelsea and PSG. Barcelona is a big away favorite but once again will be without Lionel Messi, Dortmund is a big home favorite and Brugge is a slight home favorite in their clash with the Russian giants. Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.

Sevilla vs. Chelsea

This is a tough one. Chelsea and Sevilla have both punched knockout stage tickets now it just will come down to who finishes first and who gets runner up. These two drew 0-0 in England and now they might be featuring some serious rotational squads. I won’t spend too much time on this game as I don’t think it is very exciting or full of DFS goodness.

Sevilla:

Luuk de Jong ($18) can score goals but has a floor of 0. Ivan Rakitic ($14) is probably the safest guy on this squad. Munir El Haddadi ($13) is another guy who could easily grab a goal. Defensively, Jules Kounde ($12) is a safe CB (other than that random first half sub game). Tomas Vaclik ($9) is priced well, he could see 5-6 SOG and post a nice score, and I think more GPP focused.

Chelsea:

I have to assume Olivier Giroud ($14) gets the start as the lone striker and has played well when given a chance. Christian Pulisic ($16) and Kai Havertz ($16) should both feature especially with the 5 subs available but I don’t think either is worth it. Callum Hudson-Odoi ($11) has 2 goals in the UCL including one last week and is dirt cheap for a flier. If Emerson ($6) gets a rare start I really like him. Otherwise Antonio Rudiger ($7) is decently priced for an away center back. Edouard Mendy ($11) is the cheapest he’s been in a long time. I love it as a GPP shot.

Prediction: Sevilla 0 – Chelsea 1

Borussia Dortmund vs. Lazio-

This group is still pretty open, Dortmund has the lead right now but Lazio is only 1 point behind. Lazio won this matchup 3-1 in Italy in match day 1 behind Immobile’s goal and assist.

Dortmund:

Erling Haaland ($23) is an absolute MONSTER… the man only knows one thing, and that’s scoring goals. Yes, that is exactly what I wrote last week about him and well… he went out and bagged 2 more. He now has 6 goals in 4 games. Jadon Sancho ($20) finally woke up last game with a goal and an assist but man that’s pricey. I don’t love many of the defenders but Manuel Akanji ($11) is the same price he was last week and racked up 18.2 FD fpts in an easier matchup. Roman Burki ($13) has yet to be scored on in the UCL this season (he sat the game vs. Lazio) and is averaging 21 FD fpts. You could do worse but I think it’s risky with Lazio’s goal upside.

Lazio:

I was all over Lazio last week and they came through in a big way! Ciro Immobile ($19) had 2 goals vs. Zenit and like I said earlier had a goal and an assist vs. Dortmund last time out. He’s a great GPP play. Luis Alberto ($13) had a nice game last week and stayed the same price but that probably isn’t enough since Sergej Milinkovic-Savic ($16) is back from Covid and should take most sets. Defensively, Stefan Radu/Patric/Wesley Hoedt are all $7 and if Hoedt starts at CB again, I think it’s a solid cash play. Thomas Strakosha ($11) is slated to start in goal but I can’t see playing him. Dortmund is dangerous at home.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3 – Lazio 2

Club Brugge vs. Zenit St. Petersburg

Brugge won the first matchup 2-1 in Russia and need 3 points here if they are to have any chance to advance. Neither side is in great form domestically nor in the UCL, I probably fade this game entirely in cash.

Brugge:

Hans Vanaken ($16) is always a good play; he does so much for this squad, while Ruud Vormer ($13) has the ability to spike for cheap. There are not any great defensive options on this squad and goalie Simon Mignolet ($9) is fine but risky.

Zenit:

Artem Dyzuba ($17) is very questionable for this game and if he misses, Zenit will be even worse off offensively. Malcolm ($15) does a little bit of everything but I still don’t see him being optimal. Defensively, Yaroslav Rakitskiy ($8) is a great play. He’s a CB on an away favorite and has some offensive upside (he had an assist last game). Goalie Mikhail Kerzhakov ($12) is overpriced for what matchup he is in.

Prediction: Club Brugge 1 – Zenit St. Petersburg 1

Ferencvarosi vs. Barcelona:

If Barcelona were actually fielding a full squad, this would be something like -1000 odds but since they announced today that Messi did not travel again, it’s considerably lower. The baby Barca’s won 4-0 in Kyiv last week so I like their chances here too.

Ferencvarosi:

I’m not interested in any offensive options for cash but for GPP Tokmac Nguyen ($13) is a shot at a goal. We should see a cheap CB, possibly Abraham Frimpong ($6). Denes Dibusz ($6) is a deep GPP option again. He put up 10 fpts vs. Juventus last time out.

Barcelona:

Messi was priced down at $19 but that’s probably because they released the slate after the news he was out had been posted. Once again, his absence opens up some value. Philippe Coutinho was a guy we targeted last week, but he too did not make the trip. This means hero Martin Braithwaite ($15) should start again, with a few other cheap guys like Frenkie de Jong  ($11) or Trincao ($9). If Ousmane Dembele ($18) starts, I think he’s a solid play. Defensively, I was all over Oscar Mingueza ($7) at min price last week, and he got a $2 bump but I still love his upside. Sergino Dest ($9) was sensational vs. Kyiv and should get another start. Marc-Andre ter Stegen did not travel so Neto ($14) should be in goal for the big road favorites.

Prediction: Ferencvarosi 0 – Barcelona 4

Juventus vs. Dynamo Kyiv:

Juve are a big favorite here and deservedly so. They won the last match 2-0 vs. this squad and now they get to face them at home. They did not rest players last week and now knowing they have guaranteed their spot in the next round, I bet we see some rotation.

Juventus:

Cristiano Ronaldo ($22) still seems super cheap. He only had a goal last game out with only had 28.6 FD fpts but was still very involved and if starting, I could see him trying to run up a few more champions league goals to his name. Alvaro Morata ($20) has a 2 game ban for Serie A, so I doubt he sits here, and has been red hot scoring 5 goals in 4 games.  Federico Bernadeschi ($11) seems cheap and if the lineup looks right, he is definitely in play. Defensively, Matthijs De Ligt ($11) got a big price jump, as did Alex Sandro ($13) which lowers my interest in both. They conceded last week, and just don’t seem as sharp as previous years. Wojciech Szczesny ($15) is the most expensive GK, in theory he has the best chance at a CS/W, the upside isn’t super high as he only faced 2 shots last time out and let 1 in but he did have a 4 save shutout win vs. this Kyiv team in match day 1.

Kyiv:

Tough spot for the Ukrainians again, but Viktor Tsygankov ($14) should be back to bolster their attack. Carlos De Pena ($12) was great last week and remains the same price. Defensively, Vitali Mykolenko ($12) is really the only guy who tends to provide much offensively or even defensively in peripherals. Goalie Georgi Buschan ($8) is not a good keeper, and is cheap but not cheap enough to take a real chance.

Prediction: Juventus 4 – Dynamo Kyiv 0

Manchester United vs. Paris Saint Germain:

Probably the best game of the slate, two teams who are very good and have aspirations of advancing to the knockout stage. United did a smash and grab win in Paris on match day 1 with a Bruno PK and a late Rashford goal to see them get the 3 points 2-1. Now they get the Parisians at home and are playing pretty well.

Manchester United:

Why does FanDuel keep under pricing Bruno Fernandes ($19)? He is their PK taker (even after giving one to Rashford last week) and is the main set piece taker as well. He was priced up for EPL but is back to a cheap price for a tough but not impossible match up. Marcus Rashford ($18) came down in price, he has been up and down this season but at that price I can see him being a GPP play. Does Edinson Cavani ($12) get a start after the 2 goals and 1 assist substitute appearance on the weekend to rescue the day? Defensively, Alex Telles ($14) has a slight groin issue and that’s enough to give me pause to play him at such premium price. Harry Maguire ($9) is intriguing since he has huge set piece value and I think United will have their chances. David De Gea ($10) should be fine for this one, but I don’t see him replicating his 19.5 fpts last time these two faced off.

PSG:

Neymar ($20) and Kylian Mbappe ($21) flip flopped prices… because Mbappe had the better game last time right? Wrong… he put up a massive dud, while Neymar scored a goal. Makes no sense but I’ll take the $1 savings. Angel Di Maria ($16) is always a good GPP or stack option with a stud. No great defensive plays and of course I was way off Keylor Navas ($11) last match and he threw up a 3 save CS/W… so he probably comes back to earth and ends up only as a so-so play.

Prediction: Manchester United 2– Paris Saint Germain 2

Prize Pick Table for today’s games: Bolded plays are my favorites.

Champions League 12/2	Player	Prize Picks Prop	Pick
	Christopher Nkunku	3	Over
PP Scoring	Edinson Cavani	5.5	Under
Goal +5	Marcus Rashford	5	Over
Assist +3	Kylian Mbappe	9.5	Under
Shots +1	Neymar	8	Under
Shots on Goal +1	Angel Di Maria	4	Under
Yellow Card -1	Cristiano Ronaldo	11.5	Over
Red Card -2	Lucas Ocampos	4	Under
	Olivier Giroud	6	Under
	Kai Havertz	3	Under
	Christian Pulisic	4.5	Under
	Antoine Greizmann	5	Over
	Erling Haaland	10.5	Over
	Jadon Sancho	4	Over
	Crio Immobile	8	Under
	Sergej Milinkovic-Savic	2.5	Under

 

I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/

-Ram (DFSKarma Soccer Lead)