Champions League Group Stage Match Day 6
Welcome back everyone. Unfortunately, we have come to the last match days for the UCL group stage. We’ve been absolutely rolling EPL, so don’t forget to check back here for a jam packed December fixture calendar. This is the last week we will see 2 early games on these group stages but then we get 6 game slate main slates. We finished strong last week with a late Neymar goal pushing us safely above cash lines and into GPP cash as well. Let’s start this week by breaking down the current odds with all games starting a 3pm EST:
Chelsea (-357) vs. Krasnador
Stade Rennais vs. Sevilla (+125)
Barcelona (+110) vs. Juventus
Dynamo Kyiv (-125) vs. Ferencvarosi
Paris Saint Germain (-1000) vs. Basaksehir
Red Bull Leipzig (+145) vs. Manchester United
Chelsea have already clinched top of the group and Sevilla have clinched advancing as well… both of these games have little importance on the UCL. Barcelona and Juventus have each clinched spots into the knockout stage, Barca need just a tie to top the group. The real excitement will come from Group H as PSG, United, and RB Leipzig all have chances to advance to the knockouts. Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Chelsea vs. Krasnador
I said I wasn’t interested much in this Chelsea aside from Emerson and Mendy. Then Olivier Giroud goes out and bags 4 goals in Spain, just wow. It was an unreal performance. Chelsea should trot out a similar side, maybe even a few younger guys since this has zero impact on them. Krasnador would love a tie at least to clinch a spot in Europa league as the 3rd place group finisher.
Chelsea:
I have to assume Olivier Giroud ($18) gets a rest after his performance last week and a goal on the weekend. I would assume Tammy Abraham ($15) gets the start as the lone striker and has played well when given a chance. Christian Pulisic ($15) and maybe even Mason Mount ($14) could feature especially with the 5 subs available. Callum Hudson-Odoi got hurt in training yesterday, this could open up a spot for Billy Gilmour ($7) in the midfield, Gilmour is super young and has had some really nice spots last season, I love him as a punt attacker. If Emerson ($6) gets the start again, I really like him, he put up 19.2 FD fpts. last week for the same price. Otherwise Antonio Rudiger ($8) is still decently priced for an center back and put up 20 fpts vs. Sevilla. Edouard Mendy ($15) probably gets a rest here and that means it could very well be Kepa Arrizabalaga ($5) time. I despise Kepa, he was so expensive and has been absolutely trash in London. Yet, Chelsea are a home favorite with a side that has a very strong defense, $5 is too good to pass up in cash games at least.
Krasnador:
The Russian side played very well last week at home to Rennes posting a 1-0 victory. Marcus Berg ($16) bagged the goal and is their best striker. Wanderson ($10) was a no show last week but has the skills to really give any defense a hard time. Kaio ($9) is a good defender who has a nice floor, Chelsea will still attack since the young guys will be pushing for more playing time. Matvey Safonov ($7) was excellent last week stopping all 5 shots, leading to a CS/win. I think he’s worth a GPP shot.
Prediction: Chelsea 3 – Krasnador 1
Stade Rennais vs. Sevilla-
Sevilla have nothing to play for and they got run over by Chelsea at home last week. I think it’s a B maybe even a C squad they roll out. Rennes needs a win and a Krasnador loss to have a chance at Europa.
Rennes:
Benjamin Bourigeaud ($16) is their main set piece and most dangerous guy in the open field. M’Baye Niang ($15) is the most likely center forward play for the squad and is worth a GPP flier since Sevilla have been so leaky at the back and probably will be playing teenagers. Adrien Truffert ($9) was outstanding on the left vs. Krasnador, he had 5 clearances and 4 tackles for 21 fpts. I think he is viable seeing as Rennes should be attacking plenty. Romain Salin ($5) should start again since Alfred Gomis is still sidelined. He’s a decent GPP shot for cheap and a nice pivot off Kepa. Biggest issue though is Rennes hasn’t won a game since Halloween.
Sevilla:
I don’t know what to expect from this Sevilla side until lineups are released. I think Youssef El-Nesyri ($17) is a fine option if he’s up top, Rennes are not good and he should have plenty of room to shoot any time he gets the ball. Oscar ($11) played well last week and should see another start in the midfield, his upside is limited due to 5 subs available but decent value in a good matchup. Defensively Karim Rekik ($7) should start on the left again and had 10 fpts. in a much worse matchup vs. Chelsea. Bono ($13) should be back in net for the Spanish side and had a shutout victory vs. the French side last time they met.
Prediction: Stade Rennais 1 – Sevilla 2
Barcelona vs. Juventus-
In a matchup of two titans, this won’t be an exciting affair. Barcelona has trotted out their B squad the last two UCL matches and still lead the group. I am seeing some projected lineups with a full squad though since they are at home and would love to top the group with ease, so there is some chance of an exciting affair. Juventus seem to always play their studs, regardless of matchup.
Barcelona:
Lionel Messi ($23) thankfully was priced back up since he may actually play. He is a top option on the slate and I think he is a decent cash play but I may fade this game since the last two games have more interest to me. Philippe Coutinho ($16) is a solid guy, but tends to have better matches without Messi, than with. Martin Braithwaite ($16) should start again, especially since Ousmane Dembele got hurt and is out of this match. Braithwaite has 3 goals in his last two UCL matches. Defensively, Oscar Mingueza ($9) continues to rise in price while Sergino Dest ($10) remains the same. Both are good options and Jordi Alba ($13) would interest me if he was guaranteed full run, and not subbed at half like last week. Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($11) is a good price for a home favorite but this matchup vs. Ronaldo is not one I target often.
Juventus:
Cristiano Ronaldo ($21) is always in play. He has 2 goals and an assist in his 3 games in the UCL this season. He missed the first meeting of these two squads and we all know he loves playing in Spain after all his time at Real Madrid. I think he is an elite GPP play, I would not trust him in cash since there are other top dollar plays I prefer. Alvaro Morata ($19) stayed red hot scoring one and assisting another to now make his total 6 goals in 5 games, pairing him and Ronaldo is a great big-field GPP type play. Defensively, Matthijs De Ligt ($12) is finally priced appropriately but this is still a matchup in which he can excel. He put up 19 fpts. last game out vs. Kyiv. Wojciech Szczesny ($10) is pretty pricey for an away underdog; he definitely will see shots but let in 2 and only stopped 2, last time these two met in Italy.
Prediction: Barcelona 2 – Juventus 1
Dynamo Kyiv vs. Ferencvarosi:
Battle for 3rd place! Both teams have 1 point after drawing with each other in late October. This does matter as there is still some decent money if they make it into the Europa League as the 3rd place finisher from UCL Group stage.
Kyiv:
The Ukranians are not a very good squad, but Viktor Tsygankov ($16) has returned and does just about everything for this squad. Defensively, Vitali Mykolenko ($12) is really the only guy who tends to provide much offensively or even defensively in peripherals. Goalie Georgi Buschan ($8) is not a good keeper, I don’t think he sees enough shots to make value.
Ferencvarosi:
I’m not interested in any offensive options for cash but for GPP Tokmac Nguyen ($14) is a shot at a goal. We should see cheap defensive plays even after Abraham Frimpong ($10) got a big price bump; Marcel Heister ($6) and Lasha Dvali ($5) are both super cheap. Denes Dibusz ($6) is a deep GPP option again. He should see some shots and they won’t be the same quality as Barcelona or Juventus put on him.
Prediction: Dynamo Kyiv 1 – Ferencvarosi 0
Paris Saint Germain vs. Basaksehir-
Really interesting game since PSG must at least draw to advance to the knockout stage. They are huge home favorites and will look to really put this to bed early I’d guess.
PSG:
Neymar ($23) and Kylian Mbappe ($22) flip flopped prices again, but this time they are right. Neymar scored a brace vs. United last week putting up nearly 60 fpts. Mbappe is more of a GPP play since he has not been in good form (only 1 assist in UCL). Angel Di Maria ($16) is always a good GPP or stack option with a stud. Alessandro Florenzi ($8) is nice value, as he’s got back-to-back 14 fpt. games even without clean sheets. Keylor Navas ($14) is the most expensive keeper on the slate and should be a good cash play.
Basaksehir:
Irfan Can Kahveci ($15) had a hat trick all from shots outside the box vs. Leipzig… it was a wild game that they lost 4-3 on a very, very late winner. Deniz Turuc ($14) is a capable midfielder as well and could be a nice GPP dart. Martin Skrtel got hurt last game so we could see Hasan Ali Kaldirim ($6) as a cheap CB on a huge underdog. Mert Gunok ($8) is a GPP only play, he is going to be under siege all day.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 4 – Basaksehir 0
Red Bull Leipzig- Manchester United:
Best game of the slate and by far the most important! Winner goes through, loser goes home. If they tie United will go through but Leipzig would go home if PSG won or tied. This was a crazy game in England the first time around, as it was very even for the first 70 minutes. Rashford was subbed in at minute 63, and scored a substitute hat trick for a 5-0 win for United with 4 goals in the last 15 minutes.
Leipzig:
Youssef Poulsen ($18) had a goal and an assist vs. Basaksehir last week and is their lone striker of choice at the moment. He has plenty of service from Christopher Nkunku ($15), Dani Olmo ($17) and Marcel Sabitzer ($12). Defensively, Angelino ($15) and Nordi Mukiele ($14) are two of the top offensive threats on the slate from defense but will they see enough of the ball? I probably will never play Peter Gulacsi ($9) again after that pathetic performance last week. He’s really not a good keeper.
United:
Why does Fanduel keep under pricing Bruno Fernandes ($19)? I could say this every week it seems! He is a cash lock and I might even lock him in GPP, the floor is nice and we know his ceiling is sky high. Marcus Rashford ($18) is too cheap for this matchup. He has 6 goals in the UCL this season and should be ready to go after resting a bit on the weekend. Cavani and Martial are both out, which should open up a start for Mason Greenwood ($13) he is a nice GPP pivot off Rashford in my opinion. Defensively, Alex Telles ($12) is too cheap for this matchup… I love him as a 3rd part of a United stack even. Harry Maguire ($10) is intriguing since he has huge set piece value and I think United will have their chances. David De Gea ($10) should be fine for this one as he did travel, but I don’t see him replicating his 23 fpts. last time these two faced off.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 1 – Manchester United 3
Prize Pick Table for today’s games: Bold plays are my favorites.
| Champions League 12/8 | Player | Prize Picks Prop | Pick |
| Ciro Immobile | 8.5 | Over | |
| PP Scoring | Jadon Sancho | 3 | Over |
| Goal +5 | Tammy Abraham | 4.5 | Over |
| Assist +3 | Christian Pulisic | 5.5 | Under |
| Shots +1 | Kylian Mbappe | 8.5 | Under |
| Shots on Goal +1 | Neymar | 10.5 | Over |
| Yellow Card -1 | Marcel Sabitizer | 3 | Under |
| Red Card -2 | Christopher Nkunku | 3.5 | Over |
| Marcus Rashford | 5.5 | Over | |
| Paul Pogba | 3 | Under | |
| Antoine Greizmann | 3 | Under | |
| Lionel Messi | 11 | Over | |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 10 | Over | |
| Federico Chiesa | 3.5 | Under | |
| Bruno Fernandes | 5.5 | Over | |
| Mason Mount | 3.5 | Under |
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram (DFSKarma Soccer Lead)
