Champions League Group Stage Match Day 5

We are back for some more mid-week soccer action in the Champions League! Tuesday, we see Groups A-D play in Match Day 5. We continue to have 2 early games on these group stages, but then we get a 6-game main slate. So far, we only have 2 teams guaranteed a spot in the knockout stage, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. These matches are once again the return matches from a few weeks ago, so we do have some recent data to go by. Let’s start by breaking down the current odds with all games starting a 3pm EST:

Atletico Madrid (-111) vs. Bayern Munich

Borussia M’gladbach vs. Inter Milan (+120)

Porto vs. Manchester City (-167)

Olympique de Marseille (+130) vs. Olympiacos

Atalanta (-625) vs. FC Midtjylland

Liverpool (-152) vs. Ajax

-We get three home favorites in Atletico (surprising even with Bayern probably playing B squad), Atalanta and Liverpool. Manchester City have also clinched and may not play a full strength squad but is still an away favorite in Portugal, while Milan is a slight road favorite in Germany and Marseille who have been horrific are somehow favorites over a decent Olympiacos squad in France. There will be plenty of news to come out when lineups drop at 2pm so make sure to check out our discord channel! Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.

Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich-

Bayern as underdogs is strange but their traveling squad came out and they left Robert Lewandowski, Leon Goretzka, Manuel Neuer, and Corentin Tolisso all back in Germany. So this match is completely up in the air. Atletico need these 3 points to help keep their 2nd spot in the group, and Bayern just want to play and get out of Spain unscathed.

Atletico:

Luis Suarez has still not returned from Covid, and Diego Costa is out with blood-clotting issues, this could mean Angel Correa ($11) leads the front line again. It also means that Joao Felix ($16) will have a major role.  Marcos Llorente ($12) interests me as a value play and after dropping 24 FD fpts last time out, I think he’s pretty safe. Defensively, Kieran Trippier ($12) has upside, but just can’t seem to replicate his glorious days as a Hotspur, still. If there was a time for him to show up though, now is it. I do like Gimenez ($8) as a value CB play; he can be dangerous on set pieces and has good service from Felix/Trippier and went DOWN $2 in price after putting up nearly 13 FD fpts. Jan Oblak ($9) is always a good play at home and this is now a favorable matchup. He is firmly in my cash pool.

Bayern Munich:

So do we want anyone from this side? There should be some good value plays, but the big guns you need the value for, aren’t there this slate. I still think there are a few optimal plays from this side. Leroy Sane ($18) has been playing really well domestically and I would not be surprised if he gets the start here. Douglas Costa ($12) is also a great value; he loves to bomb crosses in and should have little competition for set pieces. Defensively, Tanguy Nianzou ($8) may start at CB and is a nice cheap play for a side that should see plenty of attacking pressure. Alexander Nubel ($5) should be the starting keeper and this squad is still good enough to give him a little bit of cover and Atletico do not light up the scoreboard, ever. I think he’s a great GPP option as I don’t see the CS/Win happening, but 6+ saves is possible.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2 – Bayern Munich 1

Borussia M’Gladbach vs. Inter Milan

This group is VERY hotly contested, and surprisingly, Inter is last with 2 points. Real Madrid and Shaktar Donetsk play earlier in the day and will determine if Milan even have a shot to advance. Gladbach sits in first with 8 points and are home underdogs? I don’t get the line at all and before I saw prices, I already had a few pieces from the German squad in my head.

Gladbach:

Is there anyone hotter than Lars Stindl ($14) right now? He was rested on the weekend (19 min sub appearance) but his last two UCL games he had a goal and an assist in EACH of them. He’s been unreal and he is soooo underpriced. Alassane Plea ($17) should be back for this one and if you forget, he dropped 70 FD fpts at Shaktar in match day 3. I love that stack to get you some high priced guys too. I backed Oscar Wendt ($11) last week and he crushed with nearly 40 FD fpts. He’s been given a price jump but I still like him in this matchup a lot. Yan Sommer ($9) is someone I don’t play often but this matchup is fine enough. I think he ends up a top 2-3 scoring keeper on the slate.

Inter:

Inter have really struggled in this competition, allowing 7 goals while only scoring 4 in 4 matches. They are priced up a bit since they technically are favorites but I envision this side having very low ownership. If you like dart throws, Romelu Lukaku ($19) scored twice vs. this squad in October and Lautaro Martinez ($18) is a capable striking partner and has had big games previously, like his goal and assist match at Real Madrid. Achraf Hakimi ($9) is so cheap but he just hasn’t performed at Inter like he was at Dortmund in the 3-5-2 formation. I rarely like defenses that play the 3 at the back for DFS purposes, they rarely get huge clearance numbers and I would recommend avoiding this defense unless we see a super cheap guy pop up in lineups. Samir Handanovic ($11) is overpriced and honestly, not that good. Fade.

Prediction: Borussia M’Gladbach 3 – Inter Milan 1

Porto vs. Manchester City

City is sending a strong squad to Portugal even though they have already progressed to the knockout round. Only Aguero is left in England. Porto only need a draw here, or for Olympiacos to draw or lose, to advance with City into the next round, and will give the Citizens all they can handle.

Porto:

I really liked Porto last week and they came through with a 2-0 win in France vs. a punch-less Marseille squad. A tougher matchup here, but they are back home and City are not the best defensive squad so plenty of decent options for GPPs. Moussa Marega ($17) is the lead striker for the squad and struggled last time out, but does have a goal and an assist in 4 games. Sergio Oliviera ($14) scored a PK goal last week; Luis Diaz ($14) and Corona ($11) are all viable plays for this slate. Pepe is out, so Malang Sarr ($6) should start at CB again and is a steal. I loved Zaidu Sanusi ($10) last week and he scored as well as had a CS. In goal Andre Marchesin ($7) is a really good keeper and has a very sound defense in front of him. We’ve seen what City can do to teams, they just routed Burnley 5-0 on Saturday.

Manchester City:

Kevin De Bruyne ($23) is the most expensive player on the slate and after resting last week for their trip to Greece, he is set to start this one. He’s a top cash play for sure. Raheem Sterling ($21) was rested on the weekend while Riyad Mahrez ($16) ripped a hat trick to break the slate. Ferran Torres ($17) also scored on the weekend and continues to be in excellent form. I think if stacking, Torres/KDB is where I’d lean. Joao Cancelo ($15) was rested on the weekend and visits his old team, so you know he will be motivated to impress. He’s pricey, but the value is there at forward/midfield to get a top defender if you want. Ederson ($13) continues to roll the clean sheets and has only conceded once in this UCL season, at home to Porto. He’s not one of my top plays.

Prediction: Porto 1 – Manchester City 1

Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympiacos:

Marseille are hapless; they have just been atrocious in this competition. They have allowed 9 goals and have yet to score a single goal in 4 matches. Yes, it’s that bad. Olympiacos won the previous match in Greece 1-0.

Marseille:

Once again, do I have to mention someone here? Florian Thauvin ($15) or Dmitri Payet ($12) are the offensive threats, while is seems Dario Benedetto ($11) has PK duty for the squad. Defensively, Jordan Amavi ($7) is a well rounded player and put up 12 FD fpts last game, Boubacar Kamara ($7) is more of a defensive midfielder but is listed as a defender. I will not be playing Steve Mandanda ($10), he only has 6 saves in the 4 matches, while giving up those 9 goals I discussed earlier.

Olympiacos:

I don’t love Olympiacos’ squad much for their offensive threats but they are a very solid defensive unit. Youssef El Arabi ($15) is back from the Covid list after missing out vs. Manchester City, and is this squad’s best striker by far. Andreas Bouchalakis ($10) is the other guy I’d highlight as he is coming off a 2 goal game on Saturday and has most set pieces for this squad. Jose Holebas ($11) seems to be back healthy from a hamstring injury as an attacking fullback but the defender I like the best is Ousseynou Ba ($10) who had a nice day when City laid siege to the Greek giants last week. I don’t envision any huge defensive numbers here, mostly because Marseille are that bad. Jose Sa ($8) is a fine play, issue is I don’t know how many saves he can get, but he still put up 23 fpts vs. Marseille last match.

Prediction: Olympique de Marseille 0 – Olympiacos 0

Atalanta vs. Midtjlland FC:

Atalanta went to England and took it to Liverpool who decided to put out a clown car lineup with Salah and Mane. It did not work out well and now this group is much more interesting with 2 matches remaining. Atalanta must view this game as a  must win as they sit tied with Ajax for second place in the group and still need to face the Dutch squad once more before the end of the stage. If they can go in with 10 points, they have a great chance of advancing. Midtjlland on the other hand are eliminated, and just have pride to play for.

Atalanta:

Here is your cash lock squad. They are huge home favorites and need this win. I think they will show no mercy to the Danish squad and here we find two of the top plays of the slate in Duvan Zapata ($19) and Alejandro (Papu) Gomez ($17). Zapata did not start last game vs. Liverpool but I believe he should take his spot as the main striker back. I would not be surprised if Josip Ilicic ($18) gets another start too, and is an excellent goal scorer. Cristian Romero ($14) is a really solid defender and paid off for me last week even at a high price, racking up 26.2 FD fpts. Robin Gosens ($10) is super underpriced for the role he plays on this squad. He missed out on their weekend game but has been given the green light for this match and scored vs. Liverpool last time out. Sounds like Mateo Sportiello ($14) will be back in net for this squad and I don’t love him… he’s super pricey and if Atalanta push like I assume they will, they will be susceptible to a counter and one mistake and he crushes your lineup.

Midtjjland:

Anders Dreyer ($15) is still their top attacking threat but it seems Awer Mabil ($11) has PK duty. Defensively, Erik Sviatchenko got sent off at the end of the Ajax match so they may have to turn to Daniel Hoegh ($5) who I know nothing about but if he plays CB at this cheap price vs. an offensive powerhouse… sign me up, for cash at least. Jesper Hansen ($6) is a good GPP play since he could definitely see 8+ SOG again. He saved 5 of the 8 vs. Ajax for a 7.5 FD fpt night which isn’t horrific for the cheap price.

Prediction: Atalanta 5 – Midtjlland 0

Liverpool vs. Ajax-

Probably the best game of the slate once again comes from this group. Liverpool laid an egg last time out and left the door open for Ajax and Atalanta. They have a 2 point lead and get Midtjlland in match day 6 but I think they still put out a strong squad to try and wrap this up and punch their ticket into the knockout stage. Ajax took care of Midtjlland last week and would be thrilled with a point here before the showdown with Atalanta next week.

Liverpool-

Mo Salah ($22) is back leading the line and is a top play but he is a pricey one. Sadio Mane ($20) is the pivot off Salah as always but I don’t think you pair them together. I don’t see Diogo Jota ($18) as projected to start which doesn’t make any sense to me. If he does start, I think he’s a great play; he scored on the weekend and had a hat trick two games ago in the UCL. Defensively, Liverpool is hurting… No TAA, no VVD, no Gomez. Andrew Robertson ($15) is the last man remaining due to all those injuries. He is always dangerous but I don’t think he pays off his price tag. Fabinho ($13) didn’t start last game when I thought he would and now he’s priced way up. I think he’s another fade. Joel Matip ($10) is very similar and for $3 cheaper. In goal Alisson ($15) seems way overpriced. Ajax is an excellent offensive squad and I just don’t see ‘Pool keeping a CS which he must have to pay off that price.

Ajax:

Dusan Tadic ($18) has sets, PKs and does everything for this squad. His two games vs. Midtjlland were pretty impressive. He had a goal and assist, then 2 assists with 7 chances created. Liverpool is clearly a better test but he did have 14 FD fpts vs. them last time and they are not as defensively sound as last match up. Lassina Traore ($11) got priced up finally but he is still a great GPP play. Antony ($14) should be back in the lineup and he is very dangerous. Defensively, Lisandro Martinez ($13) or Nicholas Tagliafico ($14) are great options, no real good cheap plays here but Andre Onana ($7) is a great GPP play as Liverpool have struggled to score much this season.

Prediction: Liverpool 2 – Ajax 2

I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/

A new addition to Ram’s Randoms, a little PrizePicks prop center. In discord I’ll drop which my favorite plays are but here’s an overview of the board for Tuesday’s slate:

Champions League 12/1	Player	Prize Picks Prop	Pick
	Junior Moraes	3	Over
PP Scoring	Karim Benzema	8	Under
Goal +5	Toni Kroos	4.5	Over
Assist +3	Alassane Plea	7	Over
Shots +1	Romelu Lukaku	9.5	Under
Shots on Goal +1	Ivan Perisic	3	Under
Yellow Card -1	Lautaro Martinez	6.5	Under
Red Card -2	Duvan Zapata	5	Over
	Papu Gomez	4.5	Over
	Raheem Sterling	5.5	Over
	Joao Felix	2.5	Over
	Leroy Sane	5.5	Over
	Thomas Muller	5	Under
	Sadio Mane	6	Under
	Diogo Jota	6	Over

 

-Ram (DFSKarma Soccer Lead)