English Premier League 6/24/20
English Premier League has roared back to life and now we finally have 4 games that all kick off at the same time! The DFS Gods rejoice! We get Manchester United (-250) v Sheffield United, Newcastle (+130) v Aston Villa, Norwich City v Everton (-111) and Wolves (-182) v Bournemouth.
Biggest news really is that Dean Henderson (Sheffield stud goalie, is unable to play due to loan terms, since he is a Man Utd product and should fight against De Gea come next season). This is a big blow to the strong Blades defense and is probably why the odds are as big as they are considering United sit 5th, and Sheffield only 2 points off of them at 7th. Only Liverpool has conceded less this season than Sheffield, but they are 5th worst in goals for.
Let’s get to the positional breakdown!
Forwards:
High Priced (10.5k-7.5k)-
Jimenez– (GPP) the Mexican striker has been the man for Wolves up top with 14 goals on the season including one Saturday at West Ham. He has a decent floor (minimum 4 shots a game last 5) but his ceiling isn’t as strong… but Bournemouth are an absolute wreck and this could be a big day for Wolves attackers.
Traore– (GPP) he should start this game and he is always dangerous as no one is as fast or strong as this MAN is… he came off the bench to spark Wolves in 25 minutes last time out.
Rashford/Martial– (Cash) both of these guys are solid plays… as stated earlier Sheffield are stout on defense but are missing their top choice keeper… I still think United get high ownership given their big names and the odds given… I probably find other spots as these guys have low floors.
Jota– (GPP) loved him last game and he had some chances… I’d guess he comes off bench this time, if he was 6500 I’d be more apt to play.
Richarlison– (Cash/GPP) here we go… Everton are in a MUST win situation as they continue to find themselves on the wrong end of the table… the Brazilian is most likely to score and provides a decent floor, but at this price he’s nearly a lock.
Mid-Priced (7.5k-5k)
Calvert- Lewin– (Cash/GPP) another Everton striker at a good price… Norwich just bleed goals… his floor is not nearly as safe as Richarlison but I could see them pair up a couple times.
Sigurdsson– (GPP) oh the days when Gylfi would be 9500 as a midfielder only and pump in 15 crosses a game… now he isn’t even a regular starter… if he starts he has as good of a chance as anyone sub 7k to hit 5x.
Pukki– (GPP) no one scores for the Canaries other than Pukki… Everton certainly are not a good defensive team but I don’t see him providing value even at 6.6k. Definite deep shot.
Almiron/Joelinton– (GPP) Newcastle looked good vs. a stout Sheffield United team. Almiron had an assist, Joelinton a goal… maybe they are finding their stride? Almiron higher floor, but Joelinton has the goal upside.
Wilson– (Deep GPP) man did Bournemouth look TERRIBLE vs. Crystal Palace… but King is hurt and they need points baddddd.
Cheapies (4.9k-3.5k)
Sharp– (Deep GPP) decent floor, United aren’t air tight, but not optimal.
Iwobi– (GPP) he started vs. Liverpool but was invisible (Liverpool does that to a lot of people though) if he starts he’s great value vs. Norwich.
Mousset– (Deep GPP) like him more than Sharp in the same matchup… his pace could trouble a slower centerback like Maguire.
Midfielders:
High Priced (11.3k- 8k)
Fernandes– (Cash/GPP) now it seems he has penalties over Rashford/Martial too?! Guy is a stud and has yet to score below 13 fpts since debuting February 1st.
Grealish– (Cash/GPP) the bright spot on a pretty sad team… he’s James Maddison lite… does it all for his team. Two mediocre starts since the restart but against Chelsea and Sheffield… Newcastle should be a little easier to crack.
Moutinho– (Cash/GPP) Free kick king for a favored side… I like his chances of hitting 8 or more crosses. Similar kind of guy to Grealish minus penalties, but the matchup is one of the best you can get. Seems underpriced based on the forwards prices for Wolves.
Buendia– (GPP) really love his game, but the upside just doesn’t pop since his team just isn’t at the Premier League level. He still can hit value just in peripherals alone though.
Ritchie– (Cash/GPP) Matt Ritchie is BACK! Paid off big for us last game out with a goal and an assist and just loaded with peripherals too. Love the player and the matchup is there too.
Mid-Priced (7.9k-5.5k)
Shelvey/Duda- (GPP) I grouped these two since their upside is dependent on others not starting (Ritchie/Buendia respectively). If they were in the 4k range I would be hoping more for their upside but not so much in the 6k range.
Fleck– (GPP) glad to see him back but Man Utd is a hard matchup in the middle, he does drive the engine for the Blades but I don’t see it getting going enough on Wednesday.
Pogba– (GPP) He’s back… but the rust was apparent… he did put in almost half an hour so starting would not be completely out of the blue but I doubt they rush him back. If he’s in… he’s worth a look.
Harry Wilson– (DEAD TO ME)… what a letdown last game… you are dead to be Harry… dead.
Mata- (GPP) same idea with Pogba… such a loaded midfield it might be tough to get great value with the 5 subs available.
Cheapies (5.4k-3k)
Bernard– (GPP) Everton piece cheap that could start… like the upside for under 5k.
Brooks– (GPP) only solid performer on Bournemouth last game… I will be avoiding completely.
Gomes– (GPP) looked fully healthy but went 90… probably sits this one… but if he doesn’t good value.
Billing– (GPP) the only Bournemouth that would be worth any of your salary… still tough.
Defenders
High Priced (6.4k-5k)
Digne– (Cash/GPP) Liverpool put the clamps on but he is ready to run wild vs. Norwich… set pieces, clean sheet chance… solid choice.
Doherty– (Cash/GPP) Best attacking defense option on Wolves and should be able to push forward plenty vs. punch less Cherries. Jonny is viable too, same floor, less upside.
Targett– (GPP) Villa need him to create to have a chance… purely GPP as the other two are safer.
Mid-Priced (4.9k-3.5k)
Baines– (GPP) if he starts, it’s solid value/upside.
Saiss– (GPP) he does a little bit of everything and should have good chances to push forward and get the clean sheet.
Rose– (Cash/GPP) looked really good down the flank for Newcastle… he really needed the break to clear his head and get back into shape.
Hause– (GPP) 8 shots in the two games back…. That can’t be sustainable but double digits in both (the goal helps) but still can’t overlook in a decent matchup for 3.5k.
Cheapies (3.4k-2.5k)
Lascelles– (GPP) always produces something… has good chance at clean sheet and some peripherals.
Coady– (GPP) same idea… favored side with high clean sheet probability, has some peripherals.
Jagielka– (GPP) Blades have some injury issues and if Phil can overcome his own, he probably starts as a fullback but upside isn’t too high.
Goalkeeper
De Gea/Patricio are easily the best chances at CS/Win but are expensive.
Pickford is high on my list… could see shots that don’t threaten his goal enough and the win probability is high.
Dubravka is in similar spot, less chance at the win but Newcastle looked really good.
Fades: Nyland, Krul, Ramsdale, Moore
Make sure you check out Luke’s Projections Portal and join us in the Karma Discord Chat for updated information before the 1pm eastern kickoffs!
-Ram
