Happy Manchester City chalk day everyone!. Today we get a 6 game slate and the chalk plays are fairly easy to identify. Manchester City are huge favorites and have the highest implied goal total for the slate. Sergio Aguero should be over 60 percent owned since his goal odds are almost at 80 percent. While I do believe that you will need Man city in cash games in gpp we can get a little weird and even play the Man City guys with good goal odds that will not be so chalk. I also really like the spots for Crystal Palace, United and even Huddersfield at home against Brighton. Here are my plays for the week.
Forward
Top: Anthony Martial $8,700
Martial just played a really nice game against Young boys in the Champions League by taking 4 shots, five crosses and created a lot of chances for his team. Besides the let down game he had against Palace last EPL slate the guy had scored 6 goals in the last 5 games. I feel a nice get right game here for the Frenchmen and will come extremely lower owned than the Man City attackers.
Mid: Wilfried Zaha $7,200
Zaha has not scored since September 15th when he scored a goal at Huddersfield. This is a perfect spot for Zaha to have a blow up game since Burnley has allowed a total of 15 goals in their last 6 games. Zaha should be nowhere near your cash lineups but he is one of my favorite gpp plays of the slate. He will be on my main team.
Value: Steve Mounie $5,100
Mounie is another guy that is due to find the back of the net this week. For 5k we get a guy in a great matchup against Brighton who has allowed 6 goals in their last 4 games. Brighton has been allowing a lot of shots overall and Mounie has taken at least 4 shots in his last two games. The man is due for a big game and it could come this week at 5% or under ownership. We got the sub 5 percent goal in Glenn Murray last week and I think we can get it here as well.
Midfielders
Top: David Silva $9,000
This guy has been on fire for the last month and people refuse to play him. Aguero, Sane, Mahrez and Sterling will all be owned higher but Silva has scored in his last 4 games including a goal in the Champions league last week. He comes in at just under 40 percent odds of finding the back of the net but if City goes goal crazy like vegas expects them to then Silva will get involved in goals, assists or both. Favorite Man City gpp play again this slate.
Mid: Andros Townsend $6,800
Palace comes in as the second biggest favorite on the slate. Townsend will be really active against Burnley and will easily reach value with just crosses and shots and if he finds himself with an assist or goal he will easily reach 20-30 points.
Value: Kenedy $5,900
I am not a big fan of the players on this range but Kenedy does not have to do too much to reach value. West Ham has given up goals in 11 of their last 12 games. Newcastle will score a goal or two and I like the chances of Kenedy to be involved.
Defense
Top: Erik Durm 5,400
Teammate Chris Lowe is out with an injury which will keep Erik Durm very busy today. Durm has only scored less than 5 points one time this season and last week he had over 14 points against a tough wolves team which he assisted on a goal. He also comes with clean sheet upside.
Mid: Matt Targett 5,000
The match up is not ideal but with Bertrand set to miss another game that puts Targett on set pieces. Last slate he took 14 crosses and probably facing an uphill climb against United he could have himself a really nice game here.
Value: Jon Stankovic 3,000
He played a minute last game against Wolves. If he gets the start you are getting a CB with goal upside as we saw early in the year when he scored against Manchester City. He is only 3k so if we get anything over 3 points we will be happy plus he has the clean sheet upside as well.
Goalkeeper
Martin Dubravka $4,900
Dubravka has scored 9,9,12 and 14 points in his last 4 games. He gets a very good match up against a West Ham team that should test him with some shots to add to his save total and I like his chances of getting a win bonus here as well. If you are feeling frisky and are fading the main Man City Studs then I present to you Asmir Begovic $3,600. He has lost his last three games but has ended up with positive scores and as long as he saves 50-60 percent of the shots that will be fired at him then he should set himself up for a big game.
As always if you have any questions feel free to send me a message on discord or on twitter. I can’t wait to see all the screenshots after we dominate this week! Enjoy the slate and make sure to tune in to our slack when lineups come out since we usually drop a play or two in there as well.
Written by Jaime (Twitter: @jaimedurand1)
