Another Midweek Premier League slate with concurrent kick off times! Draftkings has just the 3 games starting at 1pm EST, and Fanduel per usual, adds in the 3:15pm game to their slate to make it a 4 gamer.
The games are as follows:
Arsenal (-245) v Norwich City
Bournemouth (+155) v Newcastle United
Everton (+155) v Leicester City
West Ham United v Chelsea (-190)
3 home favorites for the DK slate and the one road favorite, Chelsea for FD. No game has an O/U above 2.5 and Bournemouth/Newcastle is at 2.
So yes, scoring is very different between the two DFS giants, but with such a small slate it’s easy to breakdown a few key plays from each game. I’m gonna switch up my format a bit for today and go game by game rather than positional breakdowns.
Arsenal-Norwich:
Arsenal seem like the team you want the most exposure to… Norwich are not good, as the sit at the bottom of the table, certain to be relegated back to the Championship. Norwich have allowed the 2nd most goals in the EPL and have scored the fewest… not a winning combination clearly. These two squads met back on December 1st and played out a 2-2 draw…. but these squads are very clearly on different levels right now. Arsenal did look sluggish out of the break but are rounding into form after a win vs Southampton then Sheffield United in the FA Cup quarterfinals. Now the biggest issue with Arsenal though is they spread out production, but not in a large enough way to have multiple pieces.
I think Aubameyang is the main piece you want at 10.3k/$22 he’s the most expensive player on both sites and has the best odds to score, but at that price you’d need at least a goal and an assist or a brace to really pay off the salary.
But I think he does it… he scored two last time these two teams met and Norwich’s terrible defense is in shambles… Klose is suspended, Aarons may make it back in time but he is very iffy. Tettey may end up being a make shift center back and PEA will feast on that.
Pepe has lost full set piece duty to a split with Ceballos 6.3k (if one is out the other is a good play). Lacazette has not found his form and Nketiah has no floor..
Arsenal Pieces I Like:
Aubameyang, Ceballos (if no Pepe), Willock 3.9k (cheap punt if he starts), Holding $8 (FD only) Martinez is priciest goalie… not sure I fully trust Arsenal to keep a CS.
Norwich Pieces I Like:
Notice I didn’t talk much about Norwich? There isn’t much to like… only player I see viable is Buendia but 8.7k/$14 is steep for a player who could get subbed early or for some reason not start. I’d fade them and feel fine about it.
Bournemouth-Newcastle:
A very even match… and not one that should have goals tumbling out of it. Although… Bournemouth have not kept a clean sheet in 11 straight games…. yes 11! I think this may be a little sneaky for Newcastle.
Ritchie is the cog that makes the Newcastle attack hum… and he is “touch and go” according to his manager… not a great sign, but could lead to a good value play for us in Jonjo Shelvey. (5.9k/$11) Saint- Maximin is also a great upside play and still reasonably priced at 6.5k/$13 and has been in great form. Danny Rose (4.2k) has been playing well and the clean sheet is in play too with a weak Bournemouth attack (29 goals in 31 games).
Stanislas if in is a good option as he takes a handful of set pieces and is only 4.3k/$7… but don’t expect more than 75 minutes out of him. The only other piece I like is Dominic Solanke (4k/$13) who should start for the suspended Callum Wilson.
Newcastle Pieces I Like:
Ritchie, Shelvey (if no Ritchie), Saint-Maximin, Rose (DK only), Dubravka
Bournemouth Pieces I Like:
Stanislas, Solanke, Rico (if finally plays, 4.6k/$7)
Everton-Leicester City:
Biggest story line here is James Maddison and his balky hip… he is in serious doubt to miss this clash and that is a huge issue for the Foxes. He is the do everything man for the team and would be a huge hole to fill if he does miss out. Even if he is in 10k/$16 is steep to pay for a player who could be subbed at any moment. I think Vardy is a fade without Maddison… Chilwell (6.2k/$14) is one of the benefactors if he does miss out as he would take over a majority of set pieces, and Everton give up a lot of set pieces. Other plays that could be viable are Harvey Barnes (6.9k/$14) and Tielemans (4.1k/$11). Some very solid value plays on the Leicester side as the travel to Goodison Park.
Everton come in to this match struggling since the restart… they drew 0-0 with the champions Liverpool which is pretty solid but then only beat basement dwellers Norwich 1-0… through a Digne to Keane goal (two defenders…. ugh). But I will go back to playing them… but maybe a bit less than last week when they burned me good. Richarlison (9k/$17) is their best chance to get anything past Schmeichel. And while Calvert–Lewin has been a very solid striker this season (13 goals), not sure if 8.1k/$16 is where I want to spend my money. Digne is always, always in play (7.2k/$15) and put up 20.1 dk points last time out. Iwobi (5k/$10) is a GPP option but was very lively last time out (8 crosses).
Leicester Pieces I Like:
(all get bump if no Maddison) Chilwell, Barnes, Tielemans, Schmeichel
Everton Pieces I Like:
Richarlison, Digne, Calvert-Lewin, Iwobi, Pickford
West Ham- Chelsea:
Like I said earlier, this game is only on FD main slate, but is a Showdown on DK. Hop into Karma’s Soccer chat for more information on that!
So I will forewarn… I’m a big Chelsea fan so I’m a little biased but I really like this matchup for the Blues. They are flying high right now, 5 straight wins, slaying Leicester, Manchester City, Liverpool and Everton in that streak. While West Ham are in serious danger of being relegated (currently 17th but tied with Aston Villa and Bournemouth with 27 points) and have yet to score in two games since the restart, while conceding four.
Willian ($20) is the main set piece taker and has two 20 point games since the restart but Tammy Abraham ($19) is really my favorite play… he is desperate to reclaim that striker spot over Giroud and played fantastic in the half hour off the bench vs. Man City pumping in 3 shots on goal. I have to think he gets at least one tomorrow and two or three aren’t completely out of the realm of possibilities. Pulisic is a serious doubt, and Mount has not been confident for a while now… leaves a little more responsibility to guys like Pedro ($14) and Barkley ($11). Kante ($13) has great floor with his tackling and interceptions and can show up on the score sheet from time to time too. Alonso ($13) has the highest upside but the floor is not safe… Can’t trust too many of the other Chelsea defenders as rotation is definitely possible and they are the late game.
West Ham have very little to like fantasy wise… Bowen ($16) has been pretty good but that’s pricey for a more GPP play. Noble is the only other guy I like since he has penalties and Chelsea can give those up. Fredericks ($8) is a solid play but CS is not likely. Balbuena ($11) is a good price for someone who will get double digit clearances easily.
Now go and take down some GPPs and crush your cash games!
Thanks for reading and until next time….
-Ram
