English Premier League 9/19/20
After an excellent opening weekend we have two more days of 4 games with, unfortunately, staggered starts again. But hey Premier League is back, so who really cares?! It definitely makes a difference in who is paying attention though as each starting lineup is only released an hour prior to kickoff.
Biggest news I’m tracking for this slate is who is in goal for Manchester United… Dean Henderson (former Sheffield stud goalie) started United’s only preseason game due to David De Gea’s late arrival to camp. This matters more on Fanduel where Henderson is only $6!! I’ve seen very contradicting reports on who will be in net so keep an eye out for this one.
Saturday’s Main Slate is 3 games on both sites:
Leeds United (-175) vs. Fulham
Manchester United (-333) vs. Crystal Palace
Arsenal (-200) vs. West Ham United
So we get 3 home favorites… two newly promoted squads in the first game then United get their first game of the new season versus a stout Crystal Palace defense and Arsenal flying high after a big opening day win take on West Ham who still have no idea what they are doing.
Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown!
Leeds vs. Fulham-
This could be a really fun game… Leeds played Liverpool surprisingly tough in the opener, scoring 3 but letting in 4 to the defending champions, while Fulham let in 3 vs. Arsenal. I really like Leeds’ squad like I said in my season preview piece on DFSKarma.com if you haven’t read it yet, and nothing from matchday 1 changed my thoughts there. They can hang with the big dogs, and Fulham… are going to be in for a world of hurt most of this game.
Leeds:
I think they win 3-1 here and I will be targeting Patrick Bamford ($16/$7400) and Rodrigo Moreno ($15/$6700) as the biggest threats up front but don’t sleep on their talented midfield of Jack Harrison ($14/$6000), Kalvin Phillips ($14/$6400) or even Mateusz Klich ($15/$5700) as they each had some goal involvement against ‘Pool. (UPDATE: Rodrigo not expected to start yet for Leeds.) Leeds defenders got priced up big time… Luke Ayling ($13/$5300) is the best place to get points but man that’s tough to pay for. Pascal Struijk ($14/$3100) is a great centerback for DFS purposes but no way does he see as many clearance or blocked shot chances as he did last time out which greatly limits his upside. Fulham can definitely score and I just don’t see the huge upside from Illan Meslier ($11/$5500).
Fulham:
A very disappointing first game back in the Premier League which saw them fall 3-0 to Arsenal and really look shaky at best. Aleksandar Mitrovic ($16/$6300) is easily their best goalscorer and he should start this weekend which makes Fulham much more dangerous, a good GPP kind of play. Ivan Cavaleiro ($7/$5200) is a very intriguing option, he was never really given much of a chance at Wolves to prove he could play at this level… could be a solid option up front. Neeskens Kebano ($7/$3700) and Harrison Reed ($7/$4000) have big upside and proved valuable in the Championship last year, I could easily see one of them wind up in my Draftkings lineup but at Fanduel I’m just not sure we need to go this low. Fulham’s defense is not good, and they don’t rack up a lot of peripherals unfortunately for DFS purposes Michael Hector ($10/$2800) is the only guy who does much at the back, if you’re looking for a fullback though it’s definitely Joe Bryan ($12/$4900) who has the biggest upside. I don’t see myself playing much Marek Rodak ($9/$4000) since like I stated, his defense is not good and the shots given up are too high quality scoring chances.
Manchester United- Crystal Palace-
Man U:
First game of the new season for the Red Devils and lots of expectation for another top 4 finish. Donny Van de Beek ($15/$5600) is their new signing and someone who should slide right into a shaky midfield and stabilize it. He isn’t a DFS kind of player as his game is more in the ball control and orchestration part than anything else. Bruno Fernandes ($18/$11000) came over from Portugal in January and literally set the EPL on fire surging United out of mediocrity into a real threat. He should still have penalty duty too which is a nice boost to his already high floor. The duo up front and at times it was really a trio as Mason Greenwood ($16/$7900) stepped up in a big way, but Anthony Martial ($22/$9600) and Marcus Rashford ($21/$9300) are the guys you want in a United stack. I think this is more of a GPP strategy as Palace does have a very good defense, but more-so at home than on the road like this match. Defenders for United are not very attractive in the DFS world… Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($15/$5900) is about the only guy I’d play but he is really pricey. He does have excellent peripherals for a full-back which makes him playable on both sites. Harry Maguire ($14/$3900) fresh off his run in with the Greek police, is really only playable on Fanduel but I don’t love his floor in this matchup. The biggest news is who will be in goal for United… David De Gea ($14/$5900) or Dean Henderson ($6/$5800)… notice the difference on Fanduel?! Talk about misprice… you eat that chalk easily to fit in another stud forward/midfielder every day. On Draftkings, it matters less as both are good plays, not elite. Latest news suggests it will be Henderson as De Gea was late to camp and may not be fully fit.
Crystal Palace:
Palace had what looked like a great opening weekend win vs. Southampton, but then the Saints went out and lost to Brentford with most of the A squad in the EFL Cup. So, what to take from that win… might be that Palace’s defense is still solid but their offense is really lacking still. Michy Batshuayi ($14/$5300) arrived on loan from Chelsea and should provide another attacking option but for now it’s the Wilfried Zaha ($17/$6800) show and not much else. Eberechi Ezi ($9/$5700) came on for just 9 minutes but took all corners and looked the hype… if he gets a start, he could be worth a look, United’s back line struggles with pace aside from AWB. Tyrick Mitchell ($6/$4000) is mispriced in my opinion on both sites, he had 6 tackles vs. Southampton and you know he is going to have just as many opportunities to rack up peripherals with United controlling the ball. Patrick Van Aanholt is still out so it could be another makeshift back line (Kouyate started at center-back on Saturday) and was good enough to keep Ings off the score sheet but Martial/Rashford/Fernandes are completely different players. Vicente Guaita ($7/$3700) had a big game on the scoresheet and is worth a shot if you’re fading United but man he is going to be under siege from excellent spots too often for me.
Arsenal vs. West Ham United-
Arsenal:
They looked fantastic vs. newly promoted Fulham on opening day. Willian ($19/$10500) looked right at home after his move from Chelsea in the transfer window. He may be the player to unlock the potential in the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyeng ($22/$10200) and Alexander Lacazette ($18/$8500). All 3 of these guys are elite plays this weekend against a very weak Hammers squad. Gabriel Magalhaes ($15/$3400) looked excellent in his debut and even scored off a corner. On Fanduel Rob Holding ($11) is viable as David Luiz and Pablo Mari are still not fit at center-back. On DK Kieran Tierney ($3900) is an excellent value if he gets the nod. Bernd Leno ($13/$5700) is the safest bet at a clean sheet/win in my opinion.
West Ham United:
The Hammers got, for better lack of another word, hammered, by Newcastle on Saturday. They lost 2-0 and looked lost. Okay, I’m done with all that but man they looked terrible. Michail Antonio ($19/$7200) was blistering hot at the end of last season but he and Jarrod Bowen ($16/$7300) failed to rekindle that fire. Things don’t get much easier as this Arsenal squad is stronger defensively than last season without David (red card) Luiz at the back. Tomas Soucek ($13/$4500) is always of interest to me as he is a towering presence on corners and contributes some peripherals as well for a good price. Ryan Fredericks ($14/$4300) looked as good as he has in a while and is worth the pay up if you have the money but otherwise Angelo Ogbonna ($11) is only viable on FD. Don’t play Lukasz Fabianski ($8/$3900), please.
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel as well as checking out Luke’s Projection Portal (FREE!) https://dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2/
-Ram
