Hello again! More midweek EPL action coming at you on Wednesday with Draftkings covering the 3 games that kick off at 1pm EST and Fanduel including the late game that kicks at 3:15pm EST. Unfortunately, Draftkings still has not released contests let alone pricing for this slate so I will focus my pricing on Fanduel this week but will mention a few DK only plays. Make sure you join the DFS Karma discord channel to get Frosty and Luke’s cores and discuss the slate more in depth! Let’s jump right in to odds!
Burnley v Wolves (-115) O/U 2.0
Manchester City (-650) v Bournemouth O/U 3.5/4
Newcastle United v Tottenham (-130) O/U 2.5
Arsenal v Liverpool (-115) O/U 3
So at first glance you, just like most City slates, want as much Man City as possible with an over under the highest on the slate and they are the biggest favorites meaning they could put up all those goals by themselves! Wolves are a slight favorite but like most of their games, defense is the priority there. Tottenham looked much better last game but Aurier may miss out due to the horrible death of his brother in France and that would be a big blow to their back line. Liverpool have been up and down since the restart as they are the runaway champions with nothing to play for other than pride and a paycheck, but I think they bounce back nicely here.
Burnley-Wolves:
Burnley has been using smoke and mirrors to get these results, it’s miraculous given their injuries and lack of a real striker. Pope has been their MVP literally standing on his head lately, (8 saves vs Liverpool with only 1 goal conceded). He has allowed just 2 goals in his last 5 games making 21 saves over that span.
Burnley Top Plays:
Nick Pope ($9)- Like I said he has been UNBELIEVABLE lately. This Wolves team does not scare me and at his cheap price he seems like the chalk cash keeper on the slate with 20 point possibility.
Jay Rodriguez ($17)- He has been a journeyman, but seems to be finding his stride with goals in 3 of the last 4 games. Wolves are an elite defensive team but I don’t mind him as a GPP play at all.
Chris Wood ($11)- Definitely the GPP play of this game, maybe the slate… goal upside but no floor.
James Tarkowski ($16)- Elite defensive player, but most expensive on the slate. I doubt I have money for him but if you do… oh yes.
Kevin Long ($10)- He had a pretty disappointing game vs Liverpool (9.1 fpts) but has 15-20 point upside and for cheap you could do worse.
Wolves Top Plays:
Raul Jimenez ($19)- He is their top goal threat… they have not been sharp but if someone is gonna score for Wolves it’s usually him.
Diego Jota ($16)- Jota has been spry when starting, dangerous threat to score and has more creativity upside than Jimenez, a good pivot.
Roman Saiss ($12)- I don’t love any Wolves defenders as they work so well as a team, not one guy gets the big stats. But Saiss is a top play because of his high work rate on both ends of the pitch, he could rack up 5-6 tackles in a matchup like this and Burnley do force a good amount of clearances from defenders.
Manchester City- Bournemouth
Not much to say here… City look like an unstoppable force right now, and fresh off the controversial overturning of their Champions League ban, they may come out and light the poor Cherries on fire. But Bournemouth have been playing inspired soccer of late, beating Leicester 4-1 (red card changed that game completely) and shutting out Tottenham. But both of those were at home and their last visit to Manchester saw them give up 5 to Manchester United but Ramsdale did get 6 saves to post a reasonable 5.5 fpts score in defeat.
Manchester City Top Plays:
Kevin De Bruyne ($22)- Most expensive player on the slate, he’s been simply fantastic and even though he didn’t have any goal involvement last game, he still scored 18.9 fpts!
Raheem Sterling ($21)- I was all over him last game and he rewarded us with a hat trick and slate breaking 74 fpts!! I envision another solid game for him but nothing like last time out.
Gabriel Jesus ($18)- His price is criminal…. no respect at all. He only has 2 goals and 2 assists over his last two games….. If hes up top again, I will be hitting the lock button.
Riyad Mahrez ($19)- If he starts again I love his upside… might be able to get a KDB/Mahrez/Jesus stack if you want it!
Man City Defenders: Not a huge fan of any of them really… Zinchenko at $9 seems to be a great play but it’s up in the air who starts. Eric Garcia has been playing really well too and at $9 he should be a value too if starting. Don’t pay up for Ederson.
Bournemouth Top Plays:
Callum Wilson ($15)- Best goal scoring odds for the Cherries… he is slowly coming back from injury and hasn’t gotten one in the net yet (thanks alot Joshua King handball), but he is getting close.
Junior Stanislas ($14)- He’s been sensational for them, 2 goals in last 3 games but his playing time and the lack of ball possession they will get makes me think GPP only.
Bournemouth Defenders: Their defense is in shambles! Ake out hurt, Adam Smith… hurt. They will have some very inexperienced back liners tomorrow and only real value is Kelly ($9) but not sure even he will put up big numbers. I’d fade Ramsdale as he will be under siege all game and I think 4-5 goals allowed is probable not just possible.
Tottenham-Newcastle:
Tottenham finally found some form vs Arsenal. While Newcastle continue to play above their heads. I think 2-1 is a real possibility here but not sure a ton of cash plays come from this game. Top GPP game.
Tottenham Top Plays:
Harry Kane ($20)- Had 37.2 fpts with no goals or assists… he has 4 shots on goal last game! He is back on form and while his floor is very low usually, he can have 50 point outbursts.
Heung-Min Son ($18)- Had 42.3 fpts vs Arsenal after coming off the bench the previous game… he is definitely the engine that makes the Spurs go, and I usually lean him over Kane, especially for a discount.
Serge Aurier ($15)- Like I mentioned earlier, unsure if he plays and if he does what mindset he will be in… he is very pricey. I think fade is in play. I’d rather play Ben Davies for $11 on the other side or if Jan Vertonghen starts again at $10 he is a solid play. I refuse to pay $12 for Hugo Lloris.
Newcastle Top Plays:
Martin Dubravka ($8)- Another guy who has been playing outstanding in net, 13 saves last 3 games but he’s allowed 9 goals too… I think a middling score of 5-8 is possible but I think I like other keepers more. (Cough Pope Cough)
Dwight Gayle ($15)- Gayle always has a chance to score when he plays, he is extremely quick and causes many issues for slower defenses (like Tottenham!)
Allain Saint-Maximin ($13)- Top playmaker up front for Newcastle, is very involved usually but has been taking big knocks lately and is questionable.
Matt Ritchie ($10)/ Jonjo Shelvey ($11)- Yes i’m lumping these two together AGAIN… because if just one starts they get a massive boost in usage due to 100 percent set pieces.
Javier Manquillo ($8)- Another good value defender this week, nothing flashy here but he could get big numbers vs an attacking Spurs team.
Arsenal- Liverpool:
A big matchup here as both should be top powers in the EPL but… Arsenal have been a huge disappointment this season while Liverpool have been one of the best in the world. I don’t see too much changing here as I think Liverpool come out and thump them 3-0.
Arsenal Top Plays:
Granit Xhaka ($10)- Has offensive ability but makes his money as a more defensive midfielder and his tackles and interceptions will be desperately needed in this one… I think 10-12 points is probable.
David Luiz ($12)- Yuck… but he will be under siege all game by the 3 headed monster of Mane/Firmino/Salah. Could have 12+ clearances… and a penalty conceded for the real David Luiz line.
Liverpool Top Plays:
Mohammed Salah ($20)- Nice little discount from KDB… he does it all for Liverpool 29 fpts with no goal involvement last game (68 fpts the game before!). So you know he can explode at any time.
Sadio Mane ($17)- Another criminal pricing… Mane has been feeling it (26.3 fpts without goal involvement last game!) I think 40 is well within reason for this game!
Roberto Firmino ($15)- Frosty keeps hoping he pays off one of the these games at such a low price… news flash… tomorrow… IS the day! Bold call of the day…. Firmino Brace!
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15)- Another top defender play but he has not been on elite form but is rested as he only came on as a substitute last game. Joe Gomez ($9) is good value play for a Liverpool steel curtain.
Alisson ($13)- Not a horrible price for what should be a few saves and a decent clean sheet chance. But more GPP.
Thanks for reading, hope it helps you all set killer lineups for a great slate and be sure to join the squad in the Karma Discord!!
-Ram
