Champions League Group Stage Match Day 4
Welcome back for the second half of Match Day 4. We continue to have 2 early games on these group stages but then we get 6 game slate main slates. Who will punch their ticket into the knockout stages to join Chelsea, Sevilla, Barcelona and Juventus? We once again will see the return legs from 3 weeks ago. Let’s start by breaking down the current odds with all games starting a 3pm EST:
Atletico Madrid (-500) vs. Lokomotiv Moscow
Bayern Munich (-500) vs. Red Bull Salzburg
Inter Milan (+105) vs. Real Madrid
Olympique de Marseille vs. Porto (+145)
Ajax (-357) vs. FC Midtjylland
Liverpool (-154) vs. Atalanta
We get three decent home favorites in Atletico, Bayern and Ajax; we also get a surprisingly low favorite in Liverpool at home and Porto as a slight away favorite. No real major injury notes like yesterday with Messi but there is no Kevin De Bruyne for Manchester City on the early slate. Let’s jump into our Game by Game Breakdown for more info.
Atletico Madrid vs. Lokomotiv Moscow-
Luis Suarez tested positive for Covid over the international break and has not trained, otherwise not a lot has changed in this match. It was 1-1 in Russia 3 weeks ago and I agree that Madrid should be favorites, but -500 seems steep for a team that isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard.
Atletico:
So no Suarez means that Joao Felix ($18) and possibly Diego Costa ($14) should lead the attack. Marcos Llorente ($11) interests me as a value play but I don’t see much of this game being played in cash contests. Defensively, Kieran Trippier ($13) has upside, but just can’t seem to replicate his glorious days as a Hotspur. I do like Gimenez ($10) as a value CB play; he can be dangerous on set pieces and has good service from Felix/Trippier. Jan Oblak ($12) is always a good play at home and this is a decent enough matchup. He is in my pool.
Lokomotiv Moscow:
Anton Miranchuk ($15) has 2 goals in 3 games so far including the penalty in the reverse fixture. He is most of their offense, Eder ($13) is a cheap forward who has goal scoring ability but I don’t think I go there. Defensively, Murilo Cerqueira ($12) was an absolute beast in the back last game, registering 15 clearances. Dmitry Zhivoglyadov ($9) is a more attacking style defender but still has 15 fpt ability. Guilherme ($7) is a GPP like play since he’s a big away underdog, but Atletico don’t score tons so he could pay off that low salary.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2 – Lokomotiv Moscow 1
Bayern Munich vs. Red Bull Salzburg
Bayern won this match 6-2 in Austria 3 weeks ago… but that score is not indicative of how the match actually went, as Bayern rallied to score 4 goals in the last 13 minutes of the match.
Bayern:
It all starts with the big guy up top, Robert Lewandowski ($24) who is the most expensive player on the slate. Big Rob had yet to get to going in UCL this season, until he met RB Salzburg in which he bagged 2 on his way to 58.5 fan pts. The real question is who do you pair him with? Joshua Kimmich is out until January, so there is plenty of set piece taking available. I have my eye on Leroy Sane ($17) if he starts, Serge Gnabry ($18) is also a solid option on the wing and if Leon Goretzka ($13) starts, I know my buddy Mikey will be ALL OVER that play. Defensively, they are really hurting, Davies and Sule are both out and Lucas Hernandez left the last game with back issues. Jerome Boateng ($9) had the big game last time out with 34.3 fan pts. in part due to his late goal. Goalie Manuel Neuer ($14) is a great goalie but there is no way I pay for him with that defense and against a team that scores like Salzburg can.
Salzburg:
They played the German giants tough for almost 80 minutes at home but then fell apart, and fell apart hard. Daka remains out but Dominik Szoboszial ($18) and Zlatko Junuzovic ($14) are the only guys I trust but they are a little pricier than I’d like to see in such a tough matchup. Defensively, Andreas Ulmer ($9) put up 20 fan pts. in that defeat and is dangerous in space while the pricier Andre Ramalho ($13) dropped almost 37 fan pts. with an assist. Cican Stankovic ($8) is a deep GPP play since Bayern can score (uh they dropped 6 last time!).
-Prediction: Bayern Munich 4 – Red Bull Salzburg 1
Inter Milan vs. Real Madrid:
The closest match odds wise, Madrid won at home last time out 3-2 after blowing a 2-0 early lead before winning it in the 80th minute. Karim Benzema did not travel for Madrid, so that is a huge blow for them.
Inter:
Romelu Lukaku ($19) and Lautaro Martinez ($18) lead the line and while Lukaku missed the first meeting, Martinez hit for a goal and an assist. Defensively, no one stands out for me to mention. And I don’t see myself playing Samir Handanovic ($9) even for the cheap price.
Real Madrid:
So no Benzema… that means we could see Mariano ($6) get the start… could he be this slate’s Martin Braithwaite? I think Casemiro ($11) is also a good value play after he has recovered from Covid. No Sergio Ramos really hurts the back line but if you need a Real defender, Marcelo ($14) or Dani Carvajal ($13) are the best options, even as full back. I will never, ever play Thibault Courtois ($11).
-Prediction: Inter Milan 1 – Real Madrid 1
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Porto:
Porto dominated this matchup at home to a tune of 3-0. Marseille has been hapless in this tournament and even with them being home, I don’t have any faith in them.
Marseille:
I guess I have to say someone here… Florian Thauvin ($16) or Dmitri Payet ($13) are the offensive threats, while defensively, Jordan Amavi ($8) is a well rounded player. I will not be playing Steve Mandanda ($7)
Porto:
Lots of intriguing options here for Porto, and while they aren’t the best road team, I see them having success in France. Moussa Marega ($17) is the lead striker for the squad and scored last time out. Sergio Oliviera ($14), Luis Diaz ($14) and Corona ($13) are all excellent value plays for this slate. Sounds like Pepe is unlikely to play and the rest of the defense is not a huge source of DFS goodness. In goal Andre Marchesin ($10) is a really good play but does have some risk as an away team and probably without his best CB.
-Prediction: Olympique de Marseille 1 – FC Porto 3
Ajax vs. Midtjlland FC-
Ajax had all sorts of Covid issues before their trip to Denmark then of course, most of the team flew in the day of the game and completely messed me up. I was ALL over Tadic/Onana last time but then ended up off them due to the issues… of course they played very well in the 2-1 win. Now they get the return leg at home and are healthy… it’s a must win to keep pace with Liverpool and Atalanta.
Ajax:
Dusan Tadic ($20) was the first guy into my dummy line for this slate. He has sets, PKs and does everything for this squad. He had a hand in both goals they scored last time out with a goal and assist. Lassina Traore ($7) is still super cheap and a great GPP play. Antony ($14) is probably coming off the bench, but if he starts I do like him, unfortunately 5 subs means he probably plays less. Defensively, Lisandro Martinez ($13) or Nicholas Tagliafico ($14) are great options, no real good cheap plays here but Andre Onana ($12) is a great play.
Midtjylland:
Anders Dreyer ($14) is the only offensive guy I see as any value. Defensively, Erik Sviatchenko ($8) is still way too cheap; he dropped 20 fan pts. in this matchup last time. Jesper Hansen ($6) is a good GPP play since he could definitely see 8+ SOG.
-Prediction: Ajax 3 – Midtjylland 0
Liverpool vs. Atalanta-
Probably the best game of the slate, two teams who are really fun to watch when they are on. Atalanta really need a point from this if they hope to advance out of the group stage. Liverpool thrashed them in Italy 5-0 though, so it is going to be a tall mountain to climb.
Liverpool-
Mo Salah ($22) has trained and seems to be set to return from Covid after missing the weekend’s slaughter of Leicester City. Sadio Mane ($21) is the pivot off Salah but I don’t think you pair them together… a new star arrived and his name is Diogo Jota ($19). Jota has been on FIRE and had a hat trick the last time there two met. James Milner ($11) is actually interesting as well but he probably plays RB again with TAA out. This leads me to the defense, where only Andrew Robertson ($14) remains due to injuries. My guess is Fabinho ($8) gets another start at CB and if he does, I will 100 percent play that in cash and GPP. In his lone start in the group stage he put up 33.4 fan pts. In goal Alisson ($13) seems like a pricey option but his ceiling is high as Atalanta will fire at will from all angles. (He had a 6 save, CS/Win in Italy.)
Atalanta:
At first look, I really liked the prices of Atalanta but as I kept digging they are GPP only. Liverpool really impressed me on the weekend, especially defensively. But this squad has two studs that can really turn it on quickly in Duvan Zapata ($18) and Alejandro (Papu) Gomez ($17) who have 4 goals and 2 assists together in the 3 group games so far. Cristian Romero ($13) is a really solid defender and if he starts I like him a lot, even at a high price. Berat Djimsti ($11) is a good pivot as well; he seems to be back from minor ailments. Pierluigi Gollini ($5) is the projected starter and at minimum price he is viable in GPP. I think this slate is easier to spend up on GK and Defense.
-Prediction: Liverpool 3 – Atalanta 2
I hope you enjoyed this breakdown and will join us on the DFSKarma discord channel and check out our core plays at https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/soccer/
-Ram
