Hey all! Domestic league seasons have all ended, Europa League came back for a little midweek fun but now the real party begins! We get a 2 game slate starting at 3pm EST. This is the second leg of both match-ups.
Manchester City (-140) vs. Real Madrid ( City lead 2-1 on aggregate)
Juventus (-225) vs. Lyon (Lyon lead 1-0 on aggregate)
So what does all that really mean?
Man City is in a much better position as they have 2 away goals to their name but still have work to do to advance while Juventus need at least 2 goals without conceding to advance easily.
I’ve been playing more on Fanduel than Draftkings in my soccer career mostly due to the fact that’s where my money is. So I will again highlight pricing there a bit more. Both sites have pretty soft pricing in my opinion.
First Game Man City-Real Madrid:
City are favored… at home… you know what to do. But wait just a minute… Real Madrid have not lost in 11 straight matches…. and have scored 1st in each of their last 10 games. City are not iron clad at the back (Thus their big summer spending on Nathan Ake for 41 Million.) Real Madrid are solid in defense allowing only 5 goals in the last 10 games.
Top Man City Plays:
Kevin De Bruyne ($22)- it all starts with KDB for City, he is the engine in the midfield and has had a sensational season. Worth the money.
Raheem Sterling ($21)- Scores in bunches and has been electric late in the season. Good floor with SOG/Chances Created.
Riyad Mahrez ($17)/ Gabriel Jesus ($18)- grouped these two together because you probably need to choose one. Jesus has the higher goal scoring chances but Mahrez has a much higher floor. I lean Mahrez.
David Silva ($14)/Phil Foden ($15)- My guess is Silva starts as his swan song tour continues in the UCL. I love both at a great discount.
Eric Garcia ($8)- is an excellent value play but he just declined an extension from City and will leave at the end of the tournament… Pep could easily bench him and play Stones who is $1 more but same upside.
Top Real Madrid Plays:
Karim Benzema ($20)- #1 goal scoring option. Loves Champions League… like LOVES Champions League. Great GPP play.
Toni Kroos ($18)- Top playmaker, takes most sets, didn’t play last time vs. City, could be the difference maker.
Casemiro ($14)- Much better FD play than DK as his main source of points is tackles and interceptions, but can get forward and will be needed to push the pace a bit from midfield.
Marcelo ($15)- Has been training, could start and has best offensive upside of anyone on the slate in defense.
Eder Militao ($12)/ Raphael Varane ($11)- Sergio Ramos is suspended and is the heart and soul of this team as well as their captain… huge blow but they have a solid duo still in the back that could see plenty of work as City do not play it safe, ever.
Thibault Courtois ($9)- I hate this man.. but name $9 for a guy who could see 10 shots? I like his chances of saving most of those. ( I hate him because he whined his way out of Chelsea.)
Prediction: City win 3-1 on night, 5-1 aggregate.
Second Game Juventus vs. Lyon:
Lyon squeaked out the first leg at home thanks to a first half goal by Tousart. Juve had 0 shots on goal that game as Lyon somehow kept them at bay even with Juventus having 64% possession and 14 shots total. Now it heads to Turin where Juventus usually stand tall but have been very shaky of late. Memphis Depay is back from his knee injury and is raring to go to lead the charge for Lyon, he missed the first leg.
Top Juventus Plays:
Cristiano Ronaldo ($22)- yes, it’s amazing it’s taken this long to mention one of the best players in the world, possibly of all time, but the form hasn’t been elite and he needs a goal to pay off his salary. Juve run completely through him and Paulo Dybala ($19) is a question mark for this game which would add more pressure on the legend.
Gonzalo Higuain ($17)- goal scorer, no floor. Likes the big stage though.
Juventus has just a bunch of guys in the middle range that all could be viable but none stick out as a great play. Juan Cuadrado/Aaron Ramsey/Miralem Pjanic/Adrien Rabiot is how I’d rank them.
Matthijs de Ligt ($13)- Should be back in the squad, has shined at a young age on the big stage with Ajax. Gets forward on set pieces and is solid in the back. Lyon will not be sitting back much and will be going forward even more if they concede early.
Leonardo Bonnuci ($9)- Seems like a miss price here… solid defender who can rack up clearances.
Danilo ($8)- If Danilo starts he’s got offensive upside but sub risk takes him down a notch. (5 subs still in play.)
Top Lyon Plays:
Memphis Depay ($18)- He is an electric player with goal upside and chances created in bunches. Scored in all 5 UCL games he’s played in this season.
Houssem Aouar ($14)- Playmaker, is a workhorse, plays both ends of the pitch really well and will be highly involved in Lyon attack and organization.
Marcal ($8)- Cheap source of tackles and clearances, he’s a great punt play.
Leo Dubois ($14)/ Marcelo ($11)- Both are good source of clearances and tackles an Dubois tends to get forward a good deal.
Anthony Lopes ($7)- So cheap… he did not record a single save in the first leg but got the win/clean sheet… this game he definitely will face shots and he is a pretty solid keeper.
Prediction: Tie 1-1 on the night and Lyon advance 2-1 on aggregate.
Thanks for reading and best of luck tomorrow! Make sure you join us in the Karma Discord Chat at 2pm when lineups drop!
-Ram
