It’s a bittersweet day coming this Saturday, as the penultimate gameweek of the Bundesliga season comes to be. But…. We get another 9 game slate as every team kicks off concurrently at 9:30am EST. What a treat for all soccer fans and of course for us DFS fans too. There is a lot to get to so let’s jump into the odds first.
Bayer Leverkusen (-400) v Mainz
Borussia Dortmund (-140) v Hoffenheim
Borussia Monchengladbach (-305) v Hertha Berlin
Frankfurt (-325) v Paderborn
Augsburg v Leipzig (-260)
Werder Bremen (-165) v Cologne (Koln)
Freiburg (-125) v Schalke
Union Berlin v Dusseldorf (-110)
Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich (-145)
The biggest thing to know about these odds and how to use them to build your lineups is to know what teams are playing for something and what teams will just be out there to earn a paycheck or stay warm and in form for Champions League restart.
Let’s start at the top:
Bayern- Champions, stay warm for 2nd leg of Champions League v Chelsea
Dortmund- Champions League secured, nothing else
Leipzig- Champions League secured, nothing else
Gladbach– Must win/tie to secure Champions League spot for next year. Guaranteed at least Europa.
Leverkusen- Must win and hope Gladbach lose to earn Champions League. Guaranteed at least Europa.
Wolfsburg- Guaranteed at least a Europa League playoff, 10 goal difference over Hoffenheim if the both end on same points.
Hoffenheim- Guaranteed at least a Europa League playoff; really need a win/tie and a Wolfsburg tie/loss to get the guaranteed spot.
Freiburg- Worst they can do is 9th, best is 8th.
Frankfurt- Worst they can do is 10th, best is 8th.
Hertha Berlin- Worst they can do is 11th, best is 9th.
Schalke- Worst they can do is 15th, best is 10th.
Union Berlin- Worst they can do is 15th, best is 11th.
Mainz- Worst they can do is 15th, best is 11th.
Cologne- Worst they can do is 15th, best is 11th.
Augsburg- Worst they can do is 15th, best is 11th.
Dusseldorf– Best they can do is earn the relegation playoff chance with win or tie with Bremen not winning by 4 or more.
Bremen– Must win and hope Dusseldorf lose to avoid automatic relegation and earn the chance to play in the relegation playoff.
Paderborn- Relegated.
So after that breakdown, I love attacking the games that have the most meaning.
Gladbach face a dangerous Hertha Berlin team, Leverkusen get a pretty good matchup with Mainz. Unfortunately for Wolfsburg they get Bayern, and Hoffenheim get Dortmund… but Bremen get a good matchup with Koln and Dusseldorf are favored vs. a lacking Union Berlin squad. A few of these should provide some great places to attack.
I’m going to break this down a little differently for the last slate… hope it helps you out.
Stud Forwards:
So… who to pay up for?
Lewandowski– Golden Boot… always in play regardless of matchup.
Haaland– Finally coming back into form but not sure they risk him too much.
Sancho– Keeps disappointing, not worth the money unless he’s all alone.
Stindl– Yes… he’s a stud right now with the injuries to Thuram and Plea… he has penalty duty too and they will push and field a strong team.
Werner- Does he play? He’s already ready to hit up London in Chelsea blue next season.
Middling Forwards:
Silva– Has been on fire but has no peripherals. Good matchup though.
Volland/Nkunku/Muller– all could start or could not… the second fiddles to other striking partners… not sure they are worth 8k on this slate.
Uth– Bremen-Koln has a 3.5 o/u…. he’s got a good chance at being one of those.
Thommy– A possibly sneaky play… they have to push and have a great matchup.
Embolo– Gladbach piece, I went him over Stindl last week and it burned me bad.
Bailey/Bellarabi/Diaby– too many guys who could do something, but none of them do enough alone.
Grifo– Love his game… love the matchup.
Cunha– Love the player, not a fan of the matchup though.
Coman– Cheap… can always pop off.
Skov– Best floor of any of these middle guys… Hoffenheim will be pushing and BVB are not a top defensive squad, especially with nothing to play for.
Hazard– He’s becoming cheaper… if no Sancho….
Hennings– He can pop off, just a little pricey for the floor.
Cordoba– Love this game as one to stack both sides even… just make sure he starts as he has a slight knock.
Cheap Forwards:
Sargent– Bremen need this, he’s going to be guns blazing just like his hair.
Petersen– Schalke matchup is always a good one.
Baumgartner– If he somehow gets a start I love him as a GPP play.
Stud Midfielders:
Kostic-Play the man! Pay the man!
Havertz– Depends on formation if I like him a lot or a little. He can always pop off.
Demirbay– Just get the extra $800 for Havertz.
Kimmich– Always in play but I just don’t see Bayern pushing.
Hofmann– Gladbach free kicks… but not penalties hurts ceiling.
Middle Midfielders:
Kamada– Really been on form, love the matchup of course.
Trimmel– The floor is real… unfortunately his team is poor.
Arnold/Hakimi/Max/Guerriero– I usually love these guys but man, not great matchups or nothing to play for makes me doubt the urgency.
Goretzka– Might be the only Bayern piece I’d take…. Or Brandt.
Olmo– Sabitzer is out… I really like him even with nothing to play for.
Bittencourt– Bremen, Bremen, Bremen… if no Rashica, this is a lock for me.
Klaassen– uhhhh…. Bremen? YEP.
Cheap Midfielders:
Reyna– Started last week, got an assist.
Kohr– Been playing well. I like the matchup.
Rudy– Probably not the matchup for him.
Jakobs– Kainz is suspended… not sure if he’s the guy to step up but maybe and a great game to target.
McKennie– Great price, if he starts… lock him in, he’s only getting better.
Adams– Another young American, he’s been more active going forward lately and nothing to play for might mean they give him a chance to show off a bit.
Wirtz– Wow is he super cheap… if he starts… could be a super, super cheap goal.
Stud Defenders:
Davies– I don’t see the need… his floor isn’t that high.
Angelino– Better floor… but the upside isn’t elite.
Bensebaini– will be pushing forward, I like his role lately.
Brosinski– He has been elite at crossing when starting, even a tough game he has a high floor.
Gunter– Price has fallen… he still is performing well and Schalke is a good matchup to bounce back with.
Middle Defenders:
Pavard– Elite defender, but not sure if the offense will be there.
Augustinsson– If he starts in a wingback role, lock him in… if it’s a fullback he is interesting but not elite.
Cheap Defenders:
Ehizbue– Great price for a decent floor, and could be active.
Hernandez– Unsure if he starts but he is trying to regain the form he had previously.
Hector– Same thing as Ehizbue.
Ndicka– He’s been really solid and can get forward.
Abraham– He scored last week had 3 crosses even… not bad for 3k.
Posch– 2.6k for 5 points… that’s pretty decent.
Goalie Rankings:
Trapp
Hradecky
Sommer
Gulasci
Schwolow
Kastenmeier
Baumann
Make sure you join Frosty, Luke and the Karma Soccer community in the Discord chat!
Thanks for reading,
Ram
