Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package. By signing up, you’ll get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).
Race Preview/Lineup Construction
The Cup Series will be heading to Richmond this weekend which is a 3/4 mile short track. This race is 400 laps, so dominator points will play a very important role with 280 available on DraftKings and 40 on FanDuel. Richmond is a track where it’s very hard to pass which means track position will be crucial. Lapped traffic will definitely be a factor as well because it only takes about 23 seconds to run a lap. We usually don’t see many cautions here, so I’d expect multiple long runs throughout the race and many drivers to get trapped at least one lap down. In the Xfinity Series race yesterday, the only two cautions were for the end of the stages. DraftKings went very soft on the pricing, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to fit the drivers you want to play in lineups. There are plenty of drivers that offer place differential but in order to win a GPPs, we’re going to have to hit on the right dominators. The data I’ll be looking at here is track history, short track stats, recent form, and a little bit of practice data as well. Now let’s get into some of the drivers I’ll be targeting for today’s race at Richmond.
Kyle Larson (DK $10,200 FD $13,000)
Larson isn’t a driver I would expect to dominate, but he does offers a lot of place differential starting 21st and showed strong speed in practice. Over his nine Cup starts at Richmond, he has one win, two top 5’s, six top 10’s, and only 81 laps led. I think all the Hendrick cars are going to have strong long run speed in the race which is very important. All we need from him here is a top 5 finish and some dominator points to pay off his salary. For cash games, Larson looks like a safe driver to target but in GPPs, he’s playable but definitely not a lock by any means.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $9,600 FD $14,000)
Truex has had a ton of success at Richmond with three wins, seven top 5’s, eight top 10’s, 1,157 laps led, and an AvFn of 6.0 over his last ten starts here. He led 100+ laps in seven of those races and his three wins are all very recent. Joe Gibbs Racing is the team to beat at Richmond, so I’d expect them all to run well this weekend. Truex is priced appropriately on FanDuel but looks like a steal on DraftKings. He’s also in the Auto-Owners Insurance scheme which we’ve seen him dominate in a lot. I know he hasn’t been great this season but if there’s any race for him to turn it around, this is it.
Christopher Bell (DK $8,700 FD $9,000)
Bell finished top 5 in both races at Richmond last season and runs very well at the short tracks. He also won here three times in the Xfinity Series as well, so this is definitely one of his best tracks. I like the speed he had in practice and think he could be a potential sleeper to dominate and win this race. With Chastain and Bowman priced around him, I think Bell will come in lower owned than he should which will make him a great GPP play in this price range.
Alex Bowman (DK $8,500 FD $10,000)
Bowman won at Richmond last season and offers a ton of place differential starting 28th. He’s been running very well this season and is coming off of a runner-up place finish last week at COTA. I know he wasn’t great in practice, but I these Hendrick cars will be just fine during the race. In cash games, it’s hard to get away from him starting this far back but in GPPs, dominators are more important than place differential. I expect him to be one of the highest owned drivers today, so I don’t mind being underweight in tournaments and chasing some of those potential lap leaders.
Austin Dillon (DK $7,000 FD $8,000)
Austin checks a lot of boxes here with good recent form, strong track history, and a very affordable salary. This is one of his best tracks as he’s finished top 10 in four of his last six starts. These Richard Childress Racing cars have shown strong speed this season, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend at Richmond. He offers plenty of place differential starting 25th and should be able to finish around 15th and has top 10 upside as well. I expect him to be one of the highest owned value plays on the slate but for good reason.
Ty Dillon (DK $5,200 FD $2,500)
Ty has finished top 20 in five of the first six races this season and is way too cheap for the place differential and upside he has at this price. I know his track history isn’t great, but he’s on a new team and seems to be taking advantage of that. As long as Dillon can put together a clean race, he should be able to finish top 25 and pay off his salary. I don’t think we have to go here on FanDuel with their scoring but on DraftKings, Ty looks like the best punt option to target for cash games. I like him in tournaments as well, but there are definitely some pivots we can make in this price range.
NASCAR Richmond Quick Picks:
Winner: Kyle Busch
Favorite Play: Martin Truex Jr
Favorite Low Owned Play: Christopher Bell
Fade: Chase Elliott
Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Ricky Stenhouse Jr
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for Richmond and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! I’ll be live streaming on the DFS Karma YouTube channel, so make sure to come in there and ask your questions as well! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! Good luck and let’s see those winning screenshots!
