Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite cash and GPP drivers to target for Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
Race Preview/Lineup Construction
Watkins Glen is a 2.45 mile road course with 11 turns and lots of high speed sections. This track requires a lot of driver talent, so we’ll have to analyze the data and see which drivers usually runs well at the road courses. This race is only 92 laps which means dominator points won’t be as important like they usually are. Place differential and finishing position are the key things we’ll be targeting for our lineups. Chase Elliott has won the last two races here and is looking to make it three in a row today. Track position is crucial at the road courses, so we usually see teams on different strategies throughout the race. The start will be interesting because the Cup Series last raced here in 2019 and there’s no practice. Here’s some data I gathered up from the last ten road course events.
With all of that out of the way, here are some of the drivers that I’ll be targeting for today’s race at Watkins Glen.
Chase Elliott (DK $10,600 FD $14,500)
Do I even have to explain this one? Elliott is dominant on the road courses and should easily be the favorite to win today’s race. He also offers some place differential starting 11th which gives him even more upside. He’ll probably be the highest owned driver today but for good reason.
Kyle Larson (DK $10,200 FD $13,500)
I love Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr today, but I like Larson a lot as well. A lot of us questioned his ability on the road courses, but he’s been great at them winning Sonoma, finishing 2nd at COTA, and almost winning the Daytona RC before getting wrecked. He finished 6th here in 2018 and 8th in 2019 when he was driving the #42 car for Chip Ganassi Racing. Larson doesn’t offer much place differential starting from 4th, but he could be a driver that scores dominator points. I think he’ll be one of the lower owned top top tier options which makes him a great GPP play.
Chase Briscoe (DK $8,200 FD $8,000)
This might seem like a lot to pay for Briscoe, but he’s been solid on the road courses this season. He finished 6th at both COTA and Road America. Briscoe had a lot of success at the road courses in the Xfinity Series, so it’s not surprising to see him running well at these tracks in the Cup Series. Starting from 27th, he offers a lot of place differential and has top 10 upside. I think Briscoe will be a very popular play, but there are definitely some pivot options around him that will be lower owned.
Michael McDowell (DK $7,200 FD $7,300)
McDowell is always a popular name when NASCAR races at the road courses. Over his last ten at these tracks, he has three top 10’s, six top 20’s, and an AvFn of 18.6. He offers place differential starting 25th and is very affordable on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m projecting him to finish around 17th-18th, but don’t be surprised if he gets a top 15 or even a top 10 today.
Erik Jones (DK $7,000 FD $5,500)
Jones can only do so much in this #43 car, but he did run the Xfinity race yesterday which should give him an advantage over his competitors. Over the four road courses this season, he has two top 15’s and has top 20’s in all of them. He’ll start 22nd today, so there’s some place differential upside, and he has the potential to finish inside the top 15. I like him as a value play today on both sites.
Austin Dillon (DK $6,100 FD $6,000)
I never thought I would be recommending Dillon as an option on a road course yet here we are. Over his last three races at these tracks, he has finishes of 12th, 13th, and 11th. Did Austin figure something out? He doesn’t offer much place differential starting 16th, but he’s only $6,100 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. I think you can play him in cash games as a value option, but I like him more for GPPs.
NASCAR Watkins Glen Picks:
Winner: Martin Truex Jr
Favorite Play: Chase Elliott
Favorite Low Owned Play: Matt DiBenedetto
Fade: Team Penske (Logano, Keselowski, Blaney)
Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Cole Custer
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for the Cup Series Watkins Glen race, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! If you want access to our final thoughts with all of the drivers we like today, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! You can click here to join our free Discord! Good luck and we hope to see those winning screenshots!
