Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race at Michigan International Speedway! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
Race Preview
Michigan is a 2 mile, D shaped oval that’s similar to tracks like Kansas, Auto Club, and most of the other 1.5’s as well. Typically, races here are pretty clean, and we see long green flag runs. This race is 200 laps with two 60 lap stages and a final 80 laps to the finish. Kevin Harvick is the defending winner here and is still looking for his first win of 2021. Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick are still battling for the final playoff spot with only two races left before the playoffs. We probably won’t see a new winner this weekend but with Daytona next week, it could definitely happen. The race starts at 3:00 PM EST but with DraftKings locking their contests at 3:14. Let’s get into lineup construction!
Lineup Construction
In terms of dominator points, there are 140 available today which means we should target 1-2 lap leaders in our lineups. There are a lot of drivers starting deep, so place differential is definitely something to consider when building lineups. Larson starts on the pole and has a great opportunity to lead a lot of laps today. He’s going to be one of the main decisions we’re going to have to make on this slate. I think you either play Larson with all the place differential options or go with two dominators without Larson assuming he fails. Larson could work with another dominator, but it’s one of the situations where it has to work out perfectly. Let’s get into some of the drivers I’ll be targeting today!
Kyle Larson (DK $11,500 FD $14,500)
Larson has three wins at Michigan back when he was driving the #42 car for Chip Ganassi Racing. Now imagine what he can do in that #5 car for Hendrick Motorsports. He’s been dominant this season at the 1.5’s, so it’s hard to see him fail here. You can pair him with another dominator or play him solo with all the place differential plays. The only downside is that he doesn’t offer any place differential and has to lead a decent portion of the race to be worth it. I highly recommend playing Larson in cash games but totally understand fading him in tournaments to be different.
Kyle Busch (DK $10,800 FD $13,500)
It’s hard sometimes to find leverage in NASCAR DFS but how about targeting The Candy Man? He won at Kansas earlier this season and continues to put together strong runs at the 1.5’s with six straight top 5 finishes. The Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are starting to heat up at the right time, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them can outrun Larson today. Busch looks like a strong tournament play today.
Austin Dillon (DK $8,000 FD $7,500)
Dillon has three top 10’s and has finished 12th or better in all six of the 1.5’s this season. Also, he has a solid track history at Michigan with three top 10’s and five top 15’s over the last seven races here. He offers a lot of place differential starting 26th and is very affordable on DK and FD. Dillon is still battling for that final playoff spot, so there’s a lot on the line for him today. I think he’s a very safe option that offers a lot of upside as well.
Tyler Reddick (DK $7,400 FD $8,500)
Reddick before last week had seven straight finishes of 13th or better. He needs to continue his consistency if he wants to make the playoffs. I think he’ll have low ownership today because of his track history at Michigan and that he doesn’t offer as much place differential as some of the other drivers priced above him. He won the Xfinity Series race here in 2019, so I’m not worried about his finishes here in 2020. This makes Reddick a solid GPP option to target in the mid tier.
Michael McDowell (DK $6,000 FD $4,000)
McDowell runs very well in the high downforce package with an average finish of 17th on those tracks this season. The value range is pretty ugly this weekend, so he projects out as one of the better options. He offers some place differential as well starting 25th and has top 20 upside here.
Anthony Alfredo (DK $5,800 FD $3,500)
Unless Alfredo wrecks or has an issue, it’s hard for him to really kill your lineup. This is more of a DraftKings play because I don’t think you have to play him on FanDuel with how the scoring works. His floor is a top 30, but he has a ceiling around 20th depending on if there’s a late yellow or multiple cars wreck out. He’s probably the safest option which will make him a popular option for sure. The only reason I would fade him is because of his high ownership.
NASCAR Michigan Picks:
Winner: Kyle Busch
Favorite Play: Kyle Larson
Favorite Low Owned Play: Tyler Reddick
Fade: Kevin Harvick
Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: Cole Custer
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for the Cup Series Michigan race, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! If you want access to our final thoughts with all of the drivers we like today, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! You can click here to join our free Discord! Good luck and we hope to see those winning screenshots!
