Welcome to my NASCAR DFS Breakdown for the DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway! In this article, I will preview the race, lineup construction, and offer some of my favorite drivers to target for Sunday’s race! You can find all of our Core Plays throughout the NASCAR Premium Package. By signing up, you’ll get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).
Race Preview/Lineup Construction
The Cup Series will be heading to Dover this weekend also known as the “Monster Mile”. It sounds like it’s going to be difficult to pass which means track position will be very important. Practice data is another thing we should look at as the guys that are fast in practice are usually the ones that are fast in the race as well. I know NASCAR has the new car, but track history is still important for a track like Dover. This race is 400 laps which means dominator points will play a significant role here. Stars and scrubs looks like the best approach for lineup construction as there are some drivers that are mispriced. The Hendrick cars were really fast in practice, so they look like the drivers to beat on Sunday. Now let’s get into some of my favorite plays for this race on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kyle Larson (DK $11,800 FD $14,000)
Larson won at Dover back in 2019 when he was driving the #42 car for Chip Ganassi Racing. He finished 2nd here last season but dominated as he led 263 of the 400 laps. He looked great in practice as he was 4th in the 5-lap, 1st in the 10-lap, and 2nd in the 15-lap. I expect one of these two Hendrick drivers to take over quickly and rack up the dominator points early. I love Larson and Ellliott but give the slight edge to Kyle as he offers a little more upside and can control a race from start to finish.
William Byron (DK $11,000 FD $13,000)
Byron wrecked in practice, so he’ll be going to a backup car and will be starting all the way back in 33rd. He offers a ton of place differential and looks like a very safe top tier option with a lot of upside. Like I said, the Hendrick cars are the guys to beat, so I expect them all to be fast here. The only concerns I have with Willy B are that he has no laps in this car and it’s hard to pass. This is a 400 lap race though, so he’ll have plenty of time to work his way through the field.
Alex Bowman (DK $10,100 FD $12,500)
Bowman won at Dover last season, and the Hendrick cars finished 1-4 in that race. He hasn’t shown as much speed as his teammates, but I still expect him to be a contender and potential dominator here. I probably wouldn’t play him in cash games as I think there are better options but in GPPs, he’s definitely worth having exposure to with the ceiling he has.
Brad Keselowski (DK $7,700 FD $7,800)
Keselowski looked solid in practice as he was fastest overall and 1st in the 5-lap averages. His teammate Chris Buescher qualified on the pole, so I expect these both of these Roush cars to run well on Sunday. Keselowski offers some place differential starting 20th and has top 10 upside here. He usually finished top 10 back when he was driving for Team Penske so if the car is fast, I expect the same.
Ryan Preece (DK $5,700 FD $2,000)
Preece is in the #15 car for Rick Ware Racing, but it’s clearly a prepared Stewart-Haas car looking at the practice data. He was 3rd in the 5-lap, 2nd in the 10-lap, and 4th in the 15-lap, so this car has a lot of speed. He qualified 13th which makes him a little riskier as he can really hurt your lineup. However, I think Preece has the potential to hang around the top 15 which would be great for his fantasy performance. I’m hoping people are scared of Preece because he’s one of my favorite tournament plays on this slate.
Harrison Burton (DK 5,000 FD $4,000)
Burton wrecked in practice but will not be going to a backup car as the damage wasn’t significant enough. He’s starting back in 35th and offers a lot of place differential which makes him super easy to play at his price. Burton said in an interview that he feels this is one of his better tracks, and his Xfinity Series data backs that up with a 5th and 6th place finish here. The only concern I have with him is that this track is tough for rookies, and the cars are very difficult to drive. As long as he has a clean race, he should hit around 5x value.
NASCAR Dover Quick Picks:
Winner: Chase Elliott
Favorite Play: Kyle Larson
Favorite Low Owned Play: Ryan Preece
Fade: Joey Logano
Guy I’m playing you shouldn’t: AJ Allmendinger
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for Dover and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, prop plays, and betting card, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! Good luck and let’s see those winning screenshots!
