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Race Preview/Lineup Construction
The NASCAR Cup Series will be heading to Sonoma for the first time since 2019. They’ll be using the 750 low downforce package instead of the 750 high downforce package for this race making it easier to pass. There will be no practice or qualifying which means we’re going to want to target drivers that either have experience at this track or typically run well at the road courses in general. While equipment does matter, Sonoma is a track where driver talent is important because of all the different turns and braking zones. This race is only 90 laps, so dominator points will not play an important role like they usually do. This means we’ll mostly want to target drivers that can either finish up front or offer place differential from their starting position. At the road courses, it’s all about picking the right chalk plays with the low owned pivots in order to take down a tournament. With all of that out of the way, here are some of the drivers that I’ll be targeting for Sunday’s Toyota Save Mart 350.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,900 FD $14,000)
Truex has won the last two races at Sonoma and has great track history on the road courses with two wins, five top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 145 laps led, and an AvFn of 8.4 over his last ten at those tracks. Like I said in the preview, we’re looking for guys that offer place differential, can finish near the front, and run well at the road courses. Truex checks all the boxes starting from 19th which makes him a great cash and gpp play with the upside he has. He’ll probably be the highest owned driver on DraftKings and FanDuel, so there’s definitely an argument for fading him in tournaments to be different.
Kyle Busch (DK $10,300 FD $13,000)
I could see Kyle going overlooked with guys like Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr, and Joey Logano in his price range. Over his last five starts at Sonoma, he has one win and four top 5’s, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead laps and potentially win this race. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars all seem to run very well here which makes them interesting to stack in tournaments. I probably wouldn’t play Kyle in cash games because he’s starting too close to the front, but I love the upside he offers in gpps.
Kurt Busch (DK $9,100 FD $8,500)
Kurt is one of the most consistent drivers at the road courses and also has a great track history at Sonoma with one win, four top 5’s, seven top 10’s, and an AvFn of 9th over his last ten races here. I know he’s struggled this season with Chip Ganassi Racing, but this looks like the race where they can end their bad luck with a strong run and finish. Kurt looks like a great play for cash games and tournaments with the place differential upside starting from 30th. He’s another driver that will have very high ownership in gpps so fading him in a tournament is definitely an interesting approach to be different.
Chris Buescher (DK $7,200 FD $7,300)
There are a lot of solid options in the mid tier on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, but one driver that I think will have low ownership in tournaments is Chris Buescher. DFS players will see that he’s starting 12th and will probably avoid him because it’s a risky play. However, Buescher has great recent form with three top 10’s over his last five races and also has solid numbers at the road courses with three top 15’s over his last four starts. These are the types of plays that can get you a unique lineup, and I think he has sneaky top 10 potential at low ownership.
Erik Jones (DK $7,000 FD $6,000)
Jones has ran very well at the road courses with three top 5’s, five top 10’s, and an AvFn of 13.8 over his last ten starts. We have to remember that most of those races were from when he was driving the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. In the two road course races this season in the #43, he’s finished 14th and 16th. Starting from 18th, he could finish inside the top 15 and is another driver that I think will have low ownership this weekend with some of the other options around him starting further back.
Ryan Newman (DK $6,300 FD $5,000)
Sonoma is a track where the driver matters, and I think Newman could take advantage of that with all of the experience he has racing at this track with no practice or qualifying this weekend. His recent road course data isn’t great, but he has great track history at Sonoma with three top 10’s and an AvFn of 14.8 over his last ten starts here. He offers place differential starting from 24th and could finish around the top 15 which makes him a nice option for cash games and tournaments. On DraftKings, the value plays below $6,000 are pretty ugly, so I would try to avoid playing any of those drivers. If you have to, I think punting all the way down to a Scott Heckert or Cody Ware is interesting in tournaments.
I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for the Cup Series Sonoma race, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! Good luck!
