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Race Preview/Lineup Construction

The NASCAR Cup Series will be heading to Pocono Raceway for a doubleheader weekend with one race on Saturday and the other on Sunday. Pocono is a 2.5 mile track that’s shaped like a triangle and has three unique turns. Track history will be crucial because the drivers that usually run well here are the guys that are always running up front. While equipment does matter, the driver is just as important. Some similar tracks we can look at for data are Auto Club, Indianapolis, and Michigan because all of them are low-horsepower races. This article is being written for Saturday’s event but if you’re playing on Sunday, keep in mind that the top 20 drivers on Saturday will be inverted. The 20th place finisher will start 1st, 19th will start 2nd, 18th will start 3rd, etc. Since this is a bigger track, there are only 130 laps and 91 dominator points available on DraftKings and only 9.1 on FanDuel. This means that we should only have 1-2 dominators in our lineups. The field is already set with the formula, so we don’t have to wait to make our DFS lineups!

 

Top Drivers At Pocono (Last 10 Races)

1. Kevin Harvick (One win, seven top 5’s, nine top 10’s, 225 laps led, AvFn of 5.6)
2. Brad Keselowski (Zero wins, six top 5’s, eight top 10’s, 53 laps led, AvFn of 8.8)
3. Denny Hamlin (Two wins, four top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 116 laps led, AvFn of 9.2)
4. William Byron (Zero wins, one top 5, four top 10’s, 35 laps led, AvFn of 9.7 over six Cup starts)
5. Kyle Busch (Three wins, five top 5’s, eight top 10’s, 380 laps led, AvFn of 10.7)

 

Top Drivers Recent Form (Last 10 Races)

1. Kyle Larson (Three wins, seven top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 1047 laps led, AvFn of 9.1)
2. William Byron (Zero wins, six top 5’s, eight top 10’s, 66 laps led, AvFn of 8.3)
3. Kyle Busch (One win, four top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 61 laps led, AvFn of 9.6)
4. Chase Elliott (One win, six top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 56 laps led, AvFn of 9.7)
5. Denny Hamlin (Zero wins, three top 5’s, six top 10’s, 545 laps led, AvFn of 11.1)

 

Drivers to Target (Top Tier)

 

Kyle Larson (DK $12,500 FD $14,500)

I just don’t see any reason why you wouldn’t start your lineups with Kyle Larson this weekend. He has won the last three races and is putting up dominating performances each and every week. There are less dominator points available but starting on the pole, he’ll have a great opportunity to score most of those points right from the start.

 

Chase Elliott (DK $11,000 FD $11,000)

Place differential is very important for these races with less laps available, and Elliott offers a ton starting all the way back in 29th. The reason he’s starting near the back is because he was disqualified last week after having five loose lug nuts on his car. Hendrick Motorsports has been dominant, so I could definitely see him working his way up and finishing top 5.

 

Ryan Blaney (DK $10,200 FD $10,300)

Blaney won at Pocono back in 2017 when he was driving the #21 car for Wood Brothers Racing. While I don’t see that happening with how dominant Hendrick has been this season, he could definitely finish inside the top 10. Starting from 27th, he offers plenty of place differential and upside this weekend.

 

Drivers to Target (Value Tier)

 

Erik Jones (DK $6,400 FD $6,500)

Jones is not driving for Joe Gibbs Racing anymore, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers he put up in the #20 car at Pocono. Over his six starts at this track with JGR, he had four top 5 finishes! Like I said in the preview, equipment matters but the driver is just as important. I think Jones has top 15 upside on Saturday and potentially more.

 

Cole Custer (DK $6,300 FD $5,500)

Custer hasn’t been the most consistent driver this season, but he’s very underpriced on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend given the equipment. In the two races at Pocono last year, he finished 16th and 17th. Custer offers plenty of place differential starting 26th and could easily hit 5x value on Saturday.

 

Ryan Newman (DK $5,800 FD $5,300)

Pocono is not an easy track which could benefit a driver like Newman who has a ton of experience racing here. Over his last ten starts at this track, Newman has seven top 15 finishes. I know he doesn’t offer as much upside starting closer to the front, but he’s too cheap and could easily make the optimal on Saturday depending on where he finishes.

 

I hope you guys enjoyed reading my free article for the Cup Series Saturday Pocono race, and I wish you the best of luck in your DFS contests! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already @DFS_NASCAR_Zone, so you can see when I post NASCAR DFS content or ask any questions! If you want access to our final thoughts, core plays, and prop plays, make sure to sign up for the NASCAR Core Plays Package! Good luck and we hope to see those winning screenshots!