Hello everyone! I’m Luke, part of the brother duo recently brought on to assist in maintaining DFS Karma’s spot as the #1 source for NASCAR DFS information, core plays, and props. I will be taking over the weekly Cup Series article moving forward and I hope you enjoy it. Make sure you are subscribed to either our NASCAR or MVP subscription so you can get access to our Final Thoughts, all our Core Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as well as our Prop Plays for MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Remember, our NASCAR Premium content extends to ALL series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup).
Here are some of the drivers I’m looking at for Sunday’s race at Homestead Miami Speedway.
Chase Elliott (DK $11,000 FD $13,000)
Elliott always unloads fast at the 1.5’s and is usually a threat to score a lot of dominator points and contend for the win. Over his last 10 races at the intermediate tracks, he has 1 win, 3 top 5’s, 5 top 10’s, 240 laps led, and an average finish of 10.8. In the Homestead race last season, Chase finished 2nd and led 27 of the 267 laps. He’ll start 11th, so he offers place differential and could lead a lot of laps which gives him massive upside this weekend.
Denny Hamlin (DK $9,600 FD $13,500)
Hamlin won the race at Homestead last season after starting on the pole and leading 137 of the 267 laps. He’s another driver that showed a lot of speed at the 1.5’s last season, so I could definitely see him leading a lot of laps and winning this race again. I think Hamlin is appropriately priced on FanDuel but underpriced on DraftKings. The problem I have with Hamlin this weekend is that he is going to be very popular, and it’s not a guarantee that he’ll lead laps right away. Also, there will be a competition caution on lap 25 which isn’t good for him either.
Tyler Reddick (DK $8,500 FD $9,200)
Reddick is probably going to be the most popular driver on DraftKings and FanDuel for good reason. He’s great at running against the wall which should benefit him this weekend. He finished 4th in this race last season and racked up 48 fast laps well. Reddick has also had success at Darlington which is a comparable track to Homestead. He offers a ton of place differential starting 35th and has the potential to finish inside the top 5. If you want to get off the high ownership, there are other options in his price range that make sense as pivots in gpps.
Austin Dillon (DK $7,700 FD $8,000)
Austin was good at the 1.5’s last season and has a great track history at Homestead as well. He’s finished inside the top 15 over his last 6 starts at this track and was top 10 in his last 2 races here as well. I could definitely see him going overlooked this weekend with some of the other drivers around him starting further back which makes him a great tournament option.
Chase Briscoe (DK $7,200 FD $7,000)
This will be Briscoe’s first start in the Cup Series at a 1.5 mile track, but he’s in a great car driving for Stewart Haas Racing, so I think he’ll be fine. He put up some good numbers at Homestead in the Xfinity Series as well which gives me more confidence in him this weekend. He’ll start 30th and offers a lot of place differential making him a safe option that has plenty of upside as well.
Anthony Alfredo (DK $5,500 FD $4,500)
There aren’t a ton of great value plays this weekend, but Alfredo is a driver that sticks out to me in this price range. He’ll start 27th, so he offers some place differential and has the potential to finish around 20th. The concern with Alfredo is that this is his 1st Cup Series start at Homestead, so the lack of experience might hurt him in this race. However, he’s in the best equipment compared to the drivers priced around him, so he’s a driver we can target for value.
