This weekend the Cup series heads to Martinsville for the final race in the third round of the playoffs. This race will set the four drivers who race for the championship next weekend in Phoenix. We have already seen in the Trucks and Xfinity series how crazy this race can be, and have even seen a driver who was outside of the cut off line win and get themselves into the Championship race next week. Looking at the points for Cup, you have to believe that the four drivers below the cut line will need to win or have one of Harvick, Hamlin or Keselowski have issues in order to put themselves in. Martinsville is a half mile flat track where they will run 500 laps on Sunday. There are a lot of dominator points available tomorrow and we have to account for that on FanDuel this weekend as well. Since there are so many dominator points available, I will be looking to get 2-4 dominators in most of my lineups for Cup. Obviously, place differential is going to be key as well. The right mix of multiple dominators along with the right value place differential drivers will put you in the green heading into the final weekend of this wild 2020 NASCAR season.
Brad Keselowski (DK $11,400 FD $13,000)
Brad gets the luxury of starting from the pole on Sunday which opens the door for some early dominator points going his way. There is a preferred lane when it comes to restarts at Martinsville and with Brad being on the pole he gets to decide which lane to start from. He finished 3rd here earlier this season and at Richmond in September, Brad put on a dominating performance leading 192 laps on his way to victory. Richmond is a good comparable track to Martinsville for those of you who haven’t followed my final thoughts for the trucks and Xfinity series this weekend. Brad needs a solid finish with some stage points to lock himself into the Championship round and everything points to him being able to accomplish that on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $11,800 FD $13,500)
Well Brad had a dominating performance at Richmond this season, Martin Truex had an equally dominating performance at Martinsville earlier this season. He led 132 laps on his way to a second straight victory at Martinsville. Over the past couple years we are used to seeing MTJ basically locked into the Championship round. However, like most things in 2020, things aren’t like they used to be. Truex has found some issues and had a point penalty last weekend that has basically put him in a must win situation in order to get into the Championship race next weekend. I think there is a very good possibility that Martin could come out and win this race on Sunday and lock himself in.
Ryan Blaney (DK $10,700 FD $11,600)
One driver who is no longer in the playoffs that could play spoiler like Harrison Burton did today in the Xfinity series is Ryan Blaney. Blaney finished 2nd here earlier this season and dominated in this race in 2018 leading 145 laps. He has five top 10 finishes in the last six races at Martinsville. He starts 10th on Sunday and has a little place differential and finish position upside built in. I will be curious to see ownership percentages between Blaney, Logano and Johnson. They are all within $1500 of each other and all present differing factors on why all three of them are good plays on Sunday. With Logano’s win and being locked in to next weekend, I could see him laying back a little more than if he needed to win to get in. With Johnson’s bad luck, I think Blaney stands out as the best play of the three.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,300 FD $10,000)
Last weekend could have been a great weekend had Clint got decent gas mileage. Kyle and Clint had two of the best cars at Texas but Kyle was able to save enough gas whereas Clint had to pit with about 20 to go which cost him the shot at the win and a great finish. Clint has two more races left in his Cup career and Martinsville has been very kind to Clint including a win in 2018 where he led 215 laps. He has also had great success at Richmond throughout his career with an average finish there around 12th. Clint is starting 16th on Sunday and has top 10 upside and with the right strategy could put him in a spot where he could sneak one final win in his career.
Aric Almirola (DK $8,100 FD $8,700)
I feel very Ford centric this weekend as four out of the five drivers I have written up are Ford drivers. However Penske has been great this second half of the season and SHR as a team has seemed to come on as of late and not only just Kevin Harvick. Aric starts 20th on Sunday and has some decent place differential upside. He had a battery issue that took him out of contention earlier this season here. However in most of the previous recent races here, Aric has shown top 15 upside and this season in general, Aric has seemed to take a step forward at Stewart-Haas. Aric had an eight place finish at Richmond in September and I really like his price and upside especially on FanDuel.
Austin Dillon (DK $7,300 FD $8,000)
There is going to be some obvious chalk in the Austin Dillon price range. Matt Kenseth and Bubba Wallace will be staples in a lot of people’s cash lineups and gpp builds. However, you can’t take down a tournament just plugging in and playing chalk. AD falls right in between the two of them on DraftKings and has been very impressive either with speed and/or results at Martinsville and Richmond this season. He was one of the faster cars this season at Martinsville but lost a tire and couldn’t get the finish his car deserved. At Richmond, AD was one of the best cars there and finished 4th leading 55 laps there. I wouldn’t play AD in cash games but I think he is just one of a few great pivots in this price range from the scary chalk.
Any questions message me on twitter @davidjr831 and subscribe below for final thoughts, core and prop plays. Look forward to next weekend where we crown three champions in the NASCAR trucks, Xfinity and Cup series and put a bow on this wild and unique 2020 season.
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