This weekend we are into the second leg of the west coast swing in the NASCAR schedule. ISM(Phoenix Raceway) is a 1-mile, low-banked tri-oval race track. Unlike the past couple weeks, this week we don’t have a new aero package to contend with. There are 14 races on the schedule that won’t run the new changes in the cars this year. This is an important thing to note and I will do my best to remind you of what package they are running every week. Here at ISM we tend to see dominators help us win the day in DFS. Dominators, once again are drivers who lead laps, run fast laps and finish up front. This fact is somewhat important for Fanduel, but very important for Draftkings purposes. The way ISM drives it makes it more difficult to pass and as some of the drivers in practice noted, the bigger spoiler makes it difficult to do anything in dirty air(back in the pack). Our goal this week is to find those 1-2 drivers that will dominate the race, find a couple of drivers that will move up a few spots to get us a good finish position and find those one or two value guys that will help us fit in those top guys.
Kevin Harvick (FD $14,500 DK $12,800)
I mentioned in Discord that Harvick is the “King of Phoenix” and that you will find him at the top of my article next week. Well here he is. Kevin Harvick qualified 8th this weekend and has said its driving more like 2014 then 2018. Want to guess how Kevin Harvick finished in those two races here that year. If you guessed 1st and 1st, then you’re right. Kevin and Kyle will be the two most popular plays this week, but it will be difficult to get them into a lineup together that will be ultra successful. It’s going to be very important for Kevin to get up and lead laps this week and I can see the man who has crushed this racetrack getting up there and doing just that.
Kyle Busch (FD $14,200 DK $12,200)
This will be the debate of the weekend, Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch for cash games. I know I just got done telling you how Kevin’s nickname is the “King of Phoenix” but if you look at average finishes over the past couple years Kyle averages 3.25 and Kevin averages 4.25 and Kyle has led 248 more laps then Kevin. Kyle starts closer to the front in the 4th position which could make it easier for him to get up front to lead those laps needed to pay off his price. He also comes at a discount on both sites compared to Kevin. There really isn’t a lot of negative I can say about Kyle and he will probably find his way into my cash lineups over Kevin.
Aric Almirola (FD $10,800 DK $9,600)
I told Mike today that I think Aric is the second best SHR driver this weekend. Aric has had the speed all weekend in multiple practices. He averages a 9.25 finish here over the past two years. Starting 14th, we are looking at him as a driver that can move up into the top 10 and accumulate some fastest laps points in the process. Aric will also be lower owned as the chalk of the slate, Kyle Larson, is only $200 more on FD $300 more on DK. He will be a good pivot on gpps and I think he is a solid play for a good finish on FD.
Kyle Larson (FD $11,000 DK $9,900)
As I mentioned above, Kyle Larson will be the highest owned driver this weekend. He screwed up in qualifying and didn’t get to the start/finish line in time to log a faster qualifying lap. He was fast in second practice and didn’t run a lot in final practice. As hard as it is to pass here, I believe that Larson will still be able to get up to the top 10 and in cash games you have to play him just for the ownership % game. Bowyer and Suarez will garner ownership as place differential plays. However in order to get those dominators it will be hard to get Bowyer in a lineup with Larson and Suarez kind of worries me a little with his scuffle to McDowell and the propensity of him to always fail as cash game chalk.
Chris Buescher (FD $6,000 DK $6,600) and other value options
We will need to find value this week on both sites in order to afford those top drivers like Kevin or Kyle. Chris offers us some salary relief and has proven to us that he can race well this year. He really hasn’t done well in Phoenix. However he posted a solid 10 lap average in second practice and he was right there in final practice. Don’t need a miracle from him just a solid top 15-20. A couple other value drivers I like are Matty D and McDowell.
Penske Drivers
I felt like I just needed to note the dominance of Penske this weekend here at ISM. The Penske drivers consist of Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. I like them in that order as gpp plays. None of these guys will find a way into the majority of cash lineups as they shouldn’t. Ryan hasn’t been great at ISM but has had a fast car this weekend and that can’t be ignored. Brad has been a great driver here but he gets outranked by Kevin and Kyle at his price range. Joey was fastest in final practice but compared to Blaney’s sustained speed and BK’s track history, Joey ranks 3rd on this list.
As always if you have any questions or want advice on lineup construction or contest selection, you can message me on Twitter @davidjr831 or jump in our discord chat. Good luck this weekend and we will see you next week in Fontana.
