The Cup series wraps up their doubleheader at Dover Sunday and then begin to get ready for their season finale in Daytona. Our NASCAR core subscribers had a great day as all three optimal cores for Draftkings, Fanduel and SuperDraft cashed with the Draftkings core threatening takedowns in certain contests. Looking at Sundays race we can use Saturdays data as a huge tell of what we should see on Sunday. They are all using the same cars on Sunday as they did on Saturday unless they are going to a back up car like Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman. As I mentioned, 2-3 dominators is going to be the strategy for Sundays race. We had three dominators on Saturday, Hamlin, Truex and AD. When looking at dominators in this race those drivers in the second half of the top 20 are really interesting and a lot of them make great plays. There is no competition caution unless it rains so you could see someone like MDB or Almirola lead early but I think the cream will rise to the top and the early dominator won’t be as big of a factor.
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,600 FD $13,000)
Denny was the best car on Saturday and comes back with the same car on Sunday. He led 115 laps starting from the second position and was optimal. Now we get Denny starting from the 20th position. He was able to make quality passes on Saturday so coming from the 20th position towards the top should not be an issue on Sunday. Hamlin will be a very chalky option in cash games and shouldn’t be faded there. I can see taking a stand on him in gpps if you are the type of player who is willing to take stands like that. Not sure thats what I will do though. Eat the chalk and pivot elsewhere.
Kyle Busch (DK $10,000 FD $11,200)
Kyle Busch paid off…..finally! He started 22nd Saturday and moved up to finish 3rd. On Sunday, he starts from the 18th position and presents another opportunity to use the pd upside along with finish position upside to our advantage again. Kyle averaged a position of 8.1 through the race and made over 60% quality passes during the race. He also had top 10 green flag speed.
Kurt Busch (DK $8,300 FD $10,300)
Kurt Busch’s Saturday didn’t go as planned. He was wrecked early in the race and finished last. With the new lineup procedures, Kurt will start 28th and should be one of the more popular plays on the slate. He has a really safe floor and should have top 15 upside on Sunday. He is a cash game lock on all sites and should see some gpp ownership as well.
Jimmie Johnson (DK $9,200 FD $9,400)
Jimmie has had a great career at Dover winning 11 races in his career here. Jimmie is battling for a playoff spot and could use a win on Sunday to lock himself into the playoffs going into Daytona next weekend. Jimmie had a good race on Saturday finishing 7th and starts 14th on Sunday giving him some place differential upside. Jimmie had a very high percentage of quality passes on Saturday and top ten green flag speed. He has top 5 upside and for being an 11 time winner, I think Jimmie is a darkhorse to win the race on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $11,300 FD $13,500)
Well Hamlin was the best driver on Saturday, Truex wasn’t that far behind him. He led 88 laps on Saturday and had the second best green flag speed. Truex will start 19th after finishing 2nd and a good percentage of quality passes which should allow him to move through the field and find himself near the front once again. Like I wrote up for Saturdays race, Truex has not finished outside the top 15 here in 14 races now and has two second place finishes and a win in the last three race here leading laps in all three of those races.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,200 FD $9,700)
As I mentioned at the beginning the second half of the top 20 starting spots have great options which is why I wrote up 5 of them. Clint isn’t someone I would typically look at here at Dover as he has been kind of average lately. However, if we see what we saw out of Clint on Saturday in Sunday’s race he will be a great play on Draftkings. He starts 15th after finishing 6th on Saturday. Clint had top 5 green flag speed and was great on restarts. He also had over 70% quality passes on Saturday which like others who I have wrote about gives me confidence he can move up through the field especially with a lackluster top 10 starting grid.
Any questions, message me on twitter @davidjr831 and subscribe to the NASCAR package for final thoughts, core and prop plays.
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