This is a weekend will be the first weekend we see real cars on the track in over two months. Safety has always been a priority for NASCAR and during this time they have implemented procedures that will help keep everyone at the track safe. In these times we have all faced unique circumstances and this will relate to this weekend at Darlington and at least the next few races after. Races right now will basically be a one day show. No practice, no qualifying (except for the Coke 600 next Sunday), limited team members and no fans. Qualifying was determined through a random draw in different ranges of owners points on Thursday. With this information, I am using data from past track history, similar track history from other tracks and 2020 data relying highly on Vegas and Fontana. Someone asked me how we approach this weekend in discord. I told them that everyone is working with the same data so there really is no disadvantage not having practice speeds this week and we can treat it almost as if practice was rained out. As it pertains to strategy, in cash games I can see one dominator and then some safe place differential options. For Gpps, I see 2-3 domintator strategy mixing in some value drivers and place differential. Remember these are real cars on the track so NO RESETS! Well iRacing was fun, I am so excited to finally have real cars back on the track!
Brad Keselowski (DK $10,400 FD $12,000)
Brad “won” the pole for this weekends race through a random draw. He will probably be one of the highest owned drivers in cash games. I don’t see these drivers going at it right away so I can see Brad getting out front and leading the first part til the competition caution. He won’t lose the spot on pit road because of the rules they implemented during these races. In the last five races here, Brad has one win, four top 10s and a 15th place finish. He has accrued dominator points in four of those five races as well. In 2020, Brad has been fast as well. All signs bode well for Brad to have a good day at Darlington.
Kevin Harvick (DK $11,500 FD $14,500)
If Harvick won the pole this weekend, He would have been my highest owned driver. Harvick is just plain dominant here in recent years and has been the best all season even without a win. In the last seven races here, Harvick’s worst finish is ninth. All other finishes have been in the top 5 including one win. As i said, Harvick has had a fast car this season every weekend and that comes into play this weekend with no practice and just unloading the car and get the green flag. He starts 6th so I don’t expect him to get up front early, but do see a scenario playing out where he gets to the front midway through the race and dominates.
Erik Jones (DK $9,200 FD $9,800)
Erik Jones starts 20th at Darlington on Sunday. He won at Darlington last year and in his other two Cup starts finished 5th and 8th here. I think Erik Jones is a solid place differential option on draftkings. He will be a popular option on Sunday due to his pd upside here. His 2020 season has been alright with a 10th place finish at Fontana. However I have to believe that thing will get turned around this Sunday being that its JGR and they are the top team in Nascar so my faith in Erik on Sunday is strong.
Kurt Busch (DK $8,500 FD $9,400)
Kurt will probably be one of my higher owned drivers this weekend. Looking at his 2020 season so far he has shown speed and had the finishes I’d like to see with a 3rd at Fontana and a 6th at Phoenix. One thing that came up during the first couple weeks was the upgrade to the Chevys this season and how it seemed to help. At Darlington over the past five races, he has finishes of 7th, 6th, 3rd, 34th, and 6th. Last year he led 94 laps and had a very dominant car. Kurt also starts 22nd and is a safe cash play with a lot of pd upside. He is a great play for both sites in cash and gpps.
Tyler Reddick (DK $7,200 FD $6,600)
Cup rookie Tyler Reddick has done well when not involved in a wreck so far this season. He has finishes of 18th at Vegas and 11th at Fontana. He starts 29th and provides a great place differential option this weekend. In the past two seasons in the Xfinity series he has finishes of 2nd(leading 70 laps) and 3rd at Darlington. Riding up near the wall is Reddicks specialty so there is a risk of a “Darlington Stripe” however that line if done successfully will work well for him this weekend and a top 15-20 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Ty Dillon (DK $5,600 FD $5,000)
There are a few value options this weekend in this price range on Draftkings. However I think Ty will be one of the higher owned value guys and for good reason. Ty starts 33rd on Sunday which gives him a solid floor and tremendous upside. In three career Cup starts here, he has finishes of 20th, 21st and 13th. He has had finishes of 10th, 26th and 15th the 2020 season already and a top 20 here isn’t farfetched.
Will have final thoughts out Sunday morning and my Draftkings and Fanduel cores will be out soon after that. If you want access to my cores click the link below. If you have any questions, message me on twitter @davidjr831
https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/nascar/
