This weekend the Cup series heads to Kentucky Speedway. We have had our share of racing this week with two Xfinity and one truck race. One thing we have noticed that clean air is king and makes it hard to pass the leader. Track history shows that we don’t see a lot of cars fall out of the race and track postion will be key. Like Kurt and Clint said in the Xfinity race the traction compound was put in the middle of the track which is the preferred lane anyway so everyone is fighting to get in that line. We also have some weather to be concerned about which could turn this 2:30 est race into a night race as Kentucky does have lights and the weather looks better going into the evening. As far as strategy for Sundays race we typically see a 2-3 dominator race. I think roster construction on Sunday will bring some interesting strategies in tournaments and even in cash as the first debate will be on playing Kyle Busch or not playing Kyle Busch starting from the pole.
Kyle Busch (DK $10.100 FD $13,000)
Playing Kyle Busch has burned so many people this season and I completely understand the debate on whether or not to play him in cash this week because of that. If Kyle Busch is gonna get off this skid, Kentucky is one track where he can do that. In nine career races here he has never finished worse then 12th including two wins. He has led laps in 6 of the 9 races and over 100 laps in four of those six races. Kyle is starting from the pole and as I mentioned clean air is so important at Kentucky. The pole sitter in the last 4 races here has led over 100 laps in three of those four races and Suarez led over 50 starting from the pole last season. The past data shows why Kyle is a great play, its just a matter of whether the no practice Kyle can put it together early on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $9,200 FD $12,300)
If there was a case for Kyle Busch with track history, the case for Martin is just as strong. Truex has won here in two of the last three races here and has led over 150 laps doing so. Truex starts 9th and would expect him to be a later in the race dominator. If this race gets moved into the later part of Sunday due to weather you can never count out MTJ when that happens as hes one of the best when races go from day to night. Even if the weather doesn’t arrive, MTJ will be a strong and probably popular play at his price on Draftkings.
Erik Jones (DK $8,400 FD $10,400)
Who’s glutten for punishment again this week? Erik Jones has been a thorn in the sides of dfs players this season. He either does really well or completely crushes you. However, we have to look at him again this weekend. Not only has he shown speed this season and the ability to put great finishes together when he keeps his car clean but Erik also has good track history here in his three Cup starts. He has finishes of 3rd, 7th and 6th and also had great success in the Xfinity series here as well. He led laps in every race in that series at Kentucky and had four top 10 finishes. Jones starts 16th so he has some place differential upside as well.
Ryan Blaney (DK $9,800 FD $11,000)
Blaney was on quite a tear before he he got to Pocono and Indy. Kentucky is a track where Blaney can start to getting back on track. Blaney has shown speed all season and has been a fixture up front in almost every race. Blaney has had top 7 green flag speed in all but three races since the return from the break. Blaney has two career top 10 finishes in four career Cup races here. He starts 11th and has top 5 upside.
Kurt Busch (DK $7,600 FD $9,700)
If you remember last season here, Kurt and Kyle put on a show and had a great finish that ended with Kurt crossing the finish line first. Looking at Kurt’s history here he has the fifth best average finish among average drivers here. He has led over 40 laps here in the last two races. Kurts green flag speed since coming back from the break has been right around the top 10 in almost every race. I will definitely have my shares of Kurt Busch in tournaments this weekend.
Ryan Newman (DK $6,100 FD $7,500)
I’m not sure what Draftkings knows that we don’t but I feel like Ryan Newman is too cheap for his upside this week. Ryan Newman starts 23rd and has top 15 upside. Newman finished 9th here last season and has a career average finish here of around 14. If he can match that average finish then Newman will easily pay off his price and thats why Newman should get ownership for anyone who knows anything about NASCAR dfs.
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