This weekend the Cup series heads to Kansas for the cut race in the second round of the playoffs. Kansas is a 1,5 mile oval and the strategy will differ from last week at Talladega. Last week, we played the floor on drivers and didn’t worry about dominators. The strategy was successful once again and it still surprises me how many people don’t want to or can’t get themselves to play that strategy. This week we would typically be looking for 1-2 dominators in this race. Qualifying opened up a lot of place differential in the top tier. Some of those drivers can still be considered dominators along with being place differential plays. As I mentioned at the beginning, Kansas is a cut race. There are drivers who will be going for it all because they need a great finish in the stages and race and/or a win in the race. They have raced at multiple 1.5 mile tracks with this package so we can look back on results from this year including the race here in May.
Kevin Harvick (DK $11,000 FD $14,500)
Kevin Harvick had issues with pre-qualifying inspection and wasn’t allowed to run a qualifying lap. He will start last in the field. In cash games, you cannot fade Harvick, he will be massively owned. I will even have some Harvick in tournaments as well as the upside is there starting 40th. If you need more convincing, Harvick has won 2 of the last 6 races here and hasn’t finished worse the 13th leading laps in all of those 6 races.
Joey Logano (DK $9,800 FD $13,000)
Joey starts 29th Sunday and is a playoff driver who is close to the cutoff line only 18 points from being out. He will need a solid race, accumulate stage points and get a good finish in order to move onto the next round. This bodes well for dfs as well. With him starting 29th he has some serious place differential upside. Looking at 1.5 mile tracks this season, Joey has one win and 5 top 10s. If playing the place differential strategy in cash games, Joey Logano should get serious consideration.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,800 FD $13,500)
There are multiple drivers in the top tier that will be great pivots off of Harvick and Logano. Looking at practice speeds, Kyle Busch is the driver who stands out. However, I want to go with the 1.5 mile king, MTJ. Over the last two seasons, MTJ had been the sure thing at a 1.5 mile track with 8 wins in 18 races and only two finishes outside of the top 10. This season started off a little rough but I will attribute that to coming over to JGR and getting accustom to their new team, Since the Coke 600, MTJ has won two 1.5 mile tracks and accrued dominator points in both of those wins. He showed speed in 10 lap consecutive average in final practice as well.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,800 FD $10,000)
Bowyer has a few things going for him this weekend. He just resigned at SHR for next season, he is at his home track and he needs great stage finishes, a great finish in the race and maybe even a win to get into the next round. Positioning himself all race will be key and he will be smart on how he races his race. He has five top 6 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this season including a 5th place finish here in May. Clint posted a top ten 10 lap consecutive average in final practice. If Bowyer can stay out of his own way Sunday, he has top 5 potential.
Erik Jones (DK $8,400 FD $9,000)
Erik Jones isn’t in the playoffs so he has nothing to lose Sunday. He has six top 10s this season on 1.5 mile tracks including a 3rd place finish at Kansas in May and a victory in Darlington. He posted top 15 consecutive lap speed in final practice and JGR cars have been known to be set up more for the race then for qualifying. Jones starts 20th and has some place differential upside. Jones tends to have the same issues as Bowyer as he can seem to shake trouble when its looking for him on the track but for a driver that has nothing to lose, a great finish for Jones isn’t out of the question.
Chris Buescher (DK $6,700 FD $6,600)
Some weeks I talk about how bad value drivers are. I think this may be the worst race for value drivers this season. Buescher has been our go to value driver all season. He tends to qualify poorly but always finds a way to get near the top 15. This week he starts 26th. He has logged four top 10s at 1.5 mile tracks this season including a 10th at Kansas in May. He also hasn’t finished worse then 20th at all this season.
Any questions please feel free to message me on twitter @davidjr831
