This weekend the Cup Series heads to Daytona to run the Daytona Road Course for the first time ever. Add on top of that no practice and qualifying and this makes for a very interesting weekend full of a lot of unknowns. We can look at the Xfinity race as a small sample of what we may see from the Cup drivers on Sunday. There were some incidents that happened and chicanes missed that may not have happened with more track time. We also saw the importance of floor and that if someone is able to get out front early on they can get space and lead multiple laps. Since this is the first time running on this track, we really don’t have track history to look at. However, I’m using the ROVAL at Charlotte and the two other road courses on the schedule as tracks that should yield similar results. Dominators should not be as important here as there are only 65 laps. My focus will be more on finishing position upside and place differential upside. Like I said in our discord before the Xfinity race, be smart this weekend. NASCAR is one of the more variant sports and with all the unknowns this weekend you should be smart about what you play and how much of your bankroll you play and prepare yourself for the doubleheader in Dover next weekend.
Ryan Blaney (DK $11,000 FD $11,400)
Ryan is the highest priced driver this weekend and with good reason. With the new calculations for setting the starting lineup Blaney will start 24th on Sunday. This makes him a premiere place differential play. He won the inaugural race at the Roval and finished 8th there last season. He also had finishes of 3rd and 5th at the other two road courses last season. With so many unknowns going into this weekend, I think you need to target drivers such as Blaney for the floor that they offer in case of an issue so they won’t kill your lineup.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,100 FD $14,000)
When looking for finish position upside, Truex is a great option at any road course. If you remember, in the first race at the Roval, Truex was leading going into the front stretch chicane until Jimmie Johnson drove hard into the turn and spun taking Truex out with him. Had he won that race he would have added to his win total which includes 3 road course wins in the last seven races. Truex has led at least one lap in each of the last 8 races at a road course. This will be Truex’s first road course race without Cole Pearn on the box but the team has been through a season of road courses together and they are on of the top teams in Cup for a reason. I think Truex is a great gpp play Sunday.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,800 FD $10,000)
When you think of great Cup road course racers, is Clint Bowyer one of the drivers who comes to mind right away? If not, he should. Bowyer has finishes of 3rd and 4th at the ROVAL and has finished inside the top 11 in 7 of the last 8 road course races. Bowyer has a little cushion above the cut line with four races before the playoffs. This should be a track where Clint can strategize and race his way from his 12th starting spot into another top 5 finish which would help put some more distance between him and the cut line.
Alex Bowman (DK $8,200 FD $9,100)
Welcome to the chalk play of the day. Alex Bowman didn’t get the normal price bump a place differential upside driver like him has gotten this season. I can’t understand why either. Alex has finishes of 2nd and 4th at the two races at the ROVAL. He has also never finished worse then 14th since joining the 88 team. Just like Blaney, Bowman has a great floor starting 27th on Sunday with an upside that should see him finishing somewhere close to the top 10.
Matt DiBenedetto (DK $7,800 FD $9,400)
DiBenedetto was asked about his thoughts on the Daytona road course today during the lightning delay and well he admitted its intimidating having all these drivers with most never driving it, he did say how much he loves road course racing. The statistics back that statement up. Matt has driven in lesser equipment over the years however last season he had finishes of 4th and 6th at Sonoma and Watkins Glen and he has finished 13th and 11th at the ROVAL. This is a track where Matt has a chance to win this race and lock himself into the playoffs. He starts 9th so the pd upside isn’t as great but at his price on DK if he can manage a top 5 which he is capable of doing I would take that.
Michael McDowell (DK $7,000 FD $6,500)
When looking for some value this week, McDowell is the driver that is going to stand out. He starts 30th and has tremendous place differential upside on Sunday. At the ROVAL, he has finishes of 12th and 18th. He also averages a 17th place finish at road courses over the last three seasons. There are a couple other drivers who I like below McDowell however the floor that McDowell provides along with his potential pd and finish position upside put him a step above the rest. I also love McDowell as a play on Superdraft with his 1.6x multiplier.
Any questions message me on twitter @davidjr831 and subscribe to the NASCAR package below to get final thoughts, core and prop plays.
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