We head to Dover this weekend. The “Monster Mile” is a much different race than last week. If you read my article last week, you saw that salary was not a factor in your lineup construction. This week we aren’t targeting those guys in the back and we are looking for dominators in this race and fill in from there. In cash games, I will be targeting two dominators on draftkings. On fanduel, we are looking to try to get guys that finish up towards the front. Another change this week was the qualifying procedure. They went to single car qualifying. This is important cause typically this season we would get multiple drivers we would want to target that were really good because they qualified so bad. This week, Kyle Busch is the only guy who qualified bad enough to give us great place differential upside on Draftkings.
Chase Elliott (DK $9,800 FD $13,000)
Chase was first on my list of early drivers to target when I started looking at this race midweek. Chase sports a 4.33 average finish at Dover including a win here last fall. He has never finished worse than 12th. Chase qualified on the pole for the race. We saw in the Xfinity race, Cole Custer led both stages starting from the pole. It’s hard to make passes at Dover and I can see Chase getting out front and doing the same thing as Custer. Chase also gets the first pit box and has been great on pit road. Another key to staying out front because we also saw what happened to Custer when he lost the lead in the pits.
Martin Truex Jr. (DK $10,200 FD $13,200)
If it wasn’t for Chase’s amazing performances at Dover, Martin Truex Jr would be the top play on Sunday. He has an average finish of 6.6 in the last ten races here including one win. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th and led laps in 5 of the last 8 races. I feel like Martin and his team have finally locked things in with Joe Gibbs Racing now including the win at Richmond. He offers a discount to Kyle Busch on draftkings and some place differential upside starting 13th.
Kurt Busch (DK $8,900 FD $11,800)
Kurt Busch is an interesting play this weekend. He qualified 19th. Everything speaks to him finishing better than that this week. This year alone, if you take out Daytona, his worst finish is 12th. The team seems to have adapted the new aero package well. Kurt finished 5th here both times last season. Kurt’s price on DK makes him playable in both formats in my opinion at this moment.
Kyle Larson (DK $8,000 FD $10,600)
Is there another driver that has had worse luck than Kyle Larson. He was finally having a good run last week then ended up flipping down the back stretch Ricky Bobby style. I’d be all about Kyle Larson in cash this week at that price on Draftkings but I just can’t trust him this season. He has turned into last years Jimmie Johnson. However, if he can turn it around this is the track for him. Larson has an average finish of 8.5. He dominated both races in 2017. Kyle was fastest in 10 consecutive laps in final practice as well.
Daniel Suarez (DK $7,700 FD $9,600)
Daniel was another one of those drivers that popped in early research. In four career races at Dover, he has finished 10th, 3rd, 8th and 6th. Suarez like Larson was near the top of the board in single lap speed and consecutive lap speed. He gives us value on DK at this price and on Fanduel I think he could be a good play to finish top 10 here once again.
Kyle Busch (DK $12,400 FD $15,000)
Starting 22nd, you would think that Kyle is a plug and play for both sites on cash. However, Kyle comes with a hefty price tag this week. Therefore, I think Kyle is a great gpp play this week, especially on dk. Like I said he comes with high place differential upside. He has a 1st and 2nd place finish in his last five races here. I just think there are more optimal ways to build a lineup without Kyle Busch for cash then there is with.
Value Options
Chris Buescher
Ty Dillon
Paul Menard
Bubba Wallace
Ross Chastain
