We have arrived at Homestead. This is the final race of the Nascar Monster Energy Cup Series season. This season has been an amazing one and gives us a final 4 of drivers who we really can’t pick the favorite to win. Each driver, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick have all had great seasons and are definitely the drivers that deserve to be driving for the championship. Homestead is a 1.5 oval with progressive banking. We have a few tracks that they have raced on this season that give us some insight into how each driver has done here. I will be focusing my play on the Chamionship 4 in gpps and rotating my exposure to them. If you are a gpp player that is how I would approach this weekend. Qualifying was “rained” out so starting spots were determined by owners points so finding an edge will be key this week with no obvious bad qualifying laps. Let’s dive into the last race of the year!
Denny Hamlin (DK $11,100 FD $14,000)
As in other sport’s playoffs, we have seen momentum play a huge part in a championship run. Hamlin is coming off a must win race last weekend at ISM. Hamlin has by far been one of the best if not the best driver in the second half out of the championship 4. He has won two races at tracks similar to Homestead this season, the first race at Texas and the playoff race at Kansas. Denny ranks 3rd in average finish at similar tracks of the Championship 4. He starts on the pole Sunday which means he controls the start and is surrounded by his teammates who shouldn’t be racing wild to start the race since stage points are no longer a factor. He also was the fastest in consecutive 10 lap speed in the only practice they had this weekend.If I was a betting man, I am in the Hamlin camp for him to take the Championship home Sunday, bookending a season that started off winning the Daytona 500 for J.D. Gibbs and winning a Championship for him as well.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,600 FD $14,000)
Martin Truex Jr is my second favorite to win the championship on Sunday. In the last two races here, he won in 2017 and won the championship. Last year, he finished 2nd to Logano. Martin has won 7 races this season including two wins at tracks similar to Homestead, Charlotte and Vegas. Full season momentum is what runs in MTJ’s favor. After a slow start to his 1st year at JGR, MTJ has really put together a stellar season. Cole Pearn, MTJ’s crew chief is one of the best in the business and can get Martin into the best position possible and adapt as the race moves into the twilight. This race will finish under the lights and Martin is one of the best in races like this. From a DK perspective, MTJ is the cheapest driver of the Championship 4 and if I am trying to get exposure to at least two of these drivers, his price will play a factor.
Kyle Larson (DK $10,200 FD $13,000)
Had Larson made it to the Championship 4 he would have been the clear cut favorite. In the last 3 races here, he has lead over 300 laps total. He has 3 top 5 finishes in six career races here with no finish worse then 15th. The winner of this race since the new playoff format has won the championship here. Larson is obviously not eligible but if there is one driver to ruin that it could be Larson. I’m looking at Larson as a second dominator that could lead multiple laps and even possibly win the race. Larson had top 5 consecutive lap speed in practice and is not afraid to run right up against the wall which will give him big runs coming off the corner.
Matt DiBenedetto (DK $7,600 FD $5,500)
With qualifying being cancelled, trying to find great place differential plays on this slate will be a little more difficult. The next two drivers are great options to plug into your lineups. First, Matt DiBenedetto is looking to end his career year on a high note before he moves over to Wood Brothers and the iconic 21 car. During the season, we looked at Matt on shorter tracks and road course, tracks that involved driver skills over the actual car. However as the season progressed, MDB has improved at these tracks as well. In Texas two weeks ago, he finished 14th and at Kansas a few weeks back, he finished 15th. Matt starts 21st and a top 15 here at Homestead is not out of the question and makes him a great value play.
Austin Dillon (DK $7,100 FD $7,000)
It always pains me to recommend Austin Dillon because it feels like he burns me more then Jimmie Johnson has. However you can fight the track history here. In five career Cup starts here Austin has four top 14 finishes. On a slate where the value is tight, Austin starts 22nd. If you look at his 1.5 mile finishes this season he has consistently finished between 10th-20th including a 13th in Texas, 20th at Kansas and 12th at Vegas in the playoffs. If he were to match the average in his 1.5 mile finishes here at Homestead he will easily hit value and help you finish the season off strong.
This has been a great season and it’s been my pleasure helping anyone and everyone along the way. I hope I have been able to turn people onto Nascar dfs and hope to see you again next season. Any questions feel free to message me on twitter @davidjr831
