This weekend we head to Phoenix Raceway for the final leg of the west coast swing for the Cup series. Phoenix will be the site of the Championship race when they come back here in November. After last seasons poor showing, NASCAR changed up the package for short tracks to help with the racing and Phoenix will be the first try with it. This week should not be as chalky as last week was as we don’t have a chalk dominator or two that we need to play in our cash lineups. Looking at strategy, I’m looking at 1-2 dominators in cash and 1-3 in gpps. This is also another track where consecutive lap averages means something about performance during the race and long green flag runs.
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the new king of Phoenix. In the last four races here, Kyle has two wins and two 2nds. He has also led multiple laps in each of those races. Kyle is an intriguing option this weekend. He will need dominator points to pay off his price. However he has some built in place differential upside as he starts 10th. Kyle looked good in the Xfinity race and even though those cars are completely different then the cup cars, knowing Kyle, he most likely experimented during the race to test things out for Sunday.
Kevin Harvick
Before Kyle dominated Phoenix, this was Kevin’s domain. In the last 15 races here, Kevin won 7 of them including the Spring 2018 race. Kevin led the field in 10 lap consecutive average in final practice. Starting 2nd, he will need to accumulate dominator points to pay off his price. Looking more into his consecutive speeds from practice, I like what I see in terms of fall off over a long run as he only falls short to the next driver on my list.
Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski is this weeks Alex Bowman. Last weekend Alex Bowman dominated the practice charts and come Sunday he dominated the race. Well Brad led almost all the categories in consecutive lap speed in final practice, he made it a little more difficult on himself to dominate early by qualifying 14th. However that does give him place differential upside. Brad had finishes of 10th and 19th here last year but did finish second in the fall race in 2018. If you believe the long run practice speeds will translate into the race then Brad is a guy to target this weekend.
William Byron
There are some interesting options in the mid range this weekend. Between Byron, Bowyer, Kurt and Aric we have many ways to go in this range. Byron and Bowyer have pd upside well Kurt and Aric are limited in that area. I am leaning Byron over Bowyer this week for a couple reasons. The first reason is Byron’s consecutive lap speed. The fall off was not that immense and he was top 10 in all categories. Well Bowyer did finish 11th and 8th here last season, I just got this feeling that Bowyer is still off like last year. If he is gonna turn it around this would be where he would show me that. Until then I will stick with Chad Knaus and William Byron to outshine.
Tyler Reddick
Last week, I was high on Tyler Reddick. Auto Club fit his racing style just like Homestead will in a couple weeks. This week he makes my list of drivers to watch for a different reason. Tyler qualified 29th and is a great place differential option in the lower dollar range. Of course since Tyler is a rookie, we have to look at his Xfinity stats here. Tyler finished 3rd here twice last season and 10th and 6th the year before. Obviously I am not expecting those results Sunday but with his pd upside I will take a top 15 top 20 from him. His consecutive lap speeds back those expectations up as well.
Austin Dillon
I feel like he has become a mainstay in my write ups this season. Two weeks ago he did great and last week was doing just fine until he had a late pit stop because of tire issues. This week he makes the write up for the same reason Tyler did, place differential. On his qualifying lap he slid his tires and turned around to restart his qualifying session. Needless to say the sliding of tires killed his speed. I am higher on Reddick then I am on Austin but since he starts 30th he has to be a cash game staple just for his floor.
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