This weekend the Cup series heads to Dover for another double header with Cup races on Saturday and on Sunday. The Xfinity series will be doing the same thing as Cup and the truck series will run on Friday evening. Sunday’s Cup and Xfinity series lineups will be set by the finishing order of the two series results on Saturday with the top 20 being inverted just like all double headers this season. On a personal note, my family and I will be traveling all weekend for a funeral which is on Saturday so my availability for questions this weekend will be limited and I apologize in advance for that as the article for Sundays race may just be a quick overview as opposed to a detailed write up. Dover is a steep one mile oval that compares best to Bristol and some comparison to other steep tracks like Homestead, Darlington and Vegas. The Cup series has visited those tracks this season already so we have some data pre and post shut down that we can apply to these races. The strategy tends to be 2-3 dominators for this race and that is what a majority of my lineups will be. After this weekend, the Cup series heads to the high banks of Daytona for some superspeedway racing and I am very much looking forward to that!
Chase Elliott (DK $10,000 FD $12,600)
Chase Elliott showed us once again that he knows a thing or two about road course racing last weekend at the Daytona road course. With his win and the new format for creating the starting lineup, Chase Elliott starts on the pole on Saturday. Chase has done well for himself at Dover over his Cup career. In eight career Cup races, Chase has six top 5s including one win. In the first race here last year Chase started from the pole and led 145 laps which bodes well for a track where dominators are more in play. Chase has also had decent success post lay off at comparable tracks including Bristol where he was competing for the lead when he got in a little tussle giving the win over to Brad K.
Kyle Busch (DK $10,600 FD $11,200)
Kyle Busch got the DK price jump this week with his 22nd starting position. Well I think Harvick and Truex may be better dominator options this weekend, I can’t ignore Kyles place differential upside along with his track history. In his last ten races here, Kyle has six top ten finishes including one win and two second place finishes. He has led multiple laps in six of those races as well. He has three finishes worse then 16th in those ten and they have all come because of mechanical issue or accident on the track. We also know that Kyle Busch is really really good at Bristol. Kyle had one of his better races this season at Bristol and I will be looking at Kyle to cash in on his floor and upside that he presents on Saturday.
Martin Truex Jr (DK $11,000 FD $13,500)
As I mentioned above I do love Truex for that dominator potential he brings on Saturday. In his last ten races here, Truex has not finished worse the 15th here. He has led multiple laps in seven of those ten races and has one win. Truex starts third so his floor isn’t the same as Kyle but this year has been much better for Truex overall compared to Kyle. Well Truex doesn’t have the greatest history at Bristol, I am willing to put that aside as his performances at Dover overall outweigh similar track performance. We also can’t ignore how well Truex has done of late with five straight 3rd place finishes. Truex is definitely one of the top dominator options this weekend.
Austin Dillon (DK $8,700 FD $7,000)
Austin became the third Cup series driver last weekend to test positive for Covid this season. However this week he had two tests over a 24 hours period that came back negative and will be back in the car this weekend after missing last week at the Daytona road course. Austin starts 32nd and should be one of the more popular plays on Saturday. At the beginning of his career, Dover was not the greatest track for him. However over the last few years, he has had decent success. In his last seven races here, Austin has two top ten finishes and six top 20 finishes. Austin has also had great success this season at similar tracks including a 6th place finish at Bristol. He is good chalk and a great play on SuperDraft with his 2.2 multiplier.
Erik Jones (DK $9,200 FD $9,000)
I debated back and forth on which Erik(Aric) to write up today and I finally fell on Erik Jones. In six career races here, Erik has an average finish of around 11th. Erik has also had great success at Bristol with three top 5 finishes there as well. Looking at this season, he has done pretty well at similar tracks including a 5th at Bristol and two top 10 finishes at Darlington. Erik is also contending for one of the final playoff spots with only these two Dover races and next weeks Daytona race to go before the playoffs. Erik needs a solid finish with stage points and a good finishing position to put himself in the best spot heading to Daytona next week.
Matt Kenseth (DK $7,000 FD $6,500)
This has been a rough comeback for Kenseth since joining this team after the lay off. Honestly this team has been hurt by the lack of practice and the way it could build cohesiveness with the team and how they can improve. However we go into Dover with Kenseth going to one of his better tracks. He has a career average finish here of 12.92 which is sixth best compared to all active drivers in Cup right now. Let me say this, I don’t expect Kenseth to go out and grab a top 10 finish, but with his starting spot of 26th and the price on Draftkings, if Kenseth could get a top 15 finish then I wouldn’t mind playing Kenseth in some of my lineups on Saturday.
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