This weekend the Cup series heads to Phoenix and ISM Raceway. ISM is a 1 mile flat track. The Cup series has been here once this season back in the spring so we have some data from that race with this package. This is also the last race before the Championship race at Homestead next week. Two drivers have locked themselves into the final round of the playoffs and two spots are left. This scenario will lead to some strategy getting played out and drivers putting themselves in riskier situations that they would normally not put themselves in. Looking at 1-2 dominators in cash this week on Draftkings. There are 78 dominator points available for leading laps and 156 points available for fastest laps.
Kyle Busch (DK $11,900 FD $15,000)
Kyle isn’t locked into the final round yet but has set himself up real nice to do just that. He starts on the pole Sunday and has quite the history of success here. He won the last two races here and in the last five races Kyle has led over 100 laps in four of the last five races here. He had top 8 speed in consecutive lap speed but as has been true at most races this year, clean air is king and its hard to pass the leader so we will be looking for Kyle to lock in those dominator points early.
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,600 FD $13,500)
Denny is on the outside looking in to the Championship race after last weeks spin off of turn 4 and 28th place finish. Denny starts 3rd on Sunday and has shown that he will have one of the top cars this weekend. He unloaded fast with top speed in consecutive laps run in final practice in 10, 15 and 20 lap averages. He isn’t in a must win scenario this weekend,but will need either his teammate Kyle Busch or Joey Logano to falter for him to point his way into the next round. He has three top 10s in the last 5 races here including a 5th place finish in March of this year.
Aric Almirola (DK $8,100 FD $8,500)
This week, qualifying didn’t produce an upper tier place differential must play. It’s going to be important to look for those drivers that we think can finish in the top ten to get the best finishing position points possible. Aric can be one of those drivers. He starts 11th Sunday. In the last five races at ISM, Aric has four top 10s including a 4th place finish here in March. He is coming off a second place finish last week and seems to have the momentum to finish the season strong.
Ryan Newman (DK $7,600 FD $7,000)
Newman qualified mid pack once again in 20th. This season Ryan has found himself finishing in the top 20. He has three top 15 finishes in the last four races this season. As it pertains to ISM, Ryan has four top 12 finishes here in the last five races, including one win. Practice speeds have never been great for Ryan all season and that holds true for this week as well. However, the team and Ryan have been able to adjust his car and make the right strategy calls to finish better then what the data would tell you.
Matt DiBenedetto (DK $7,300 FD $6,000)
A track where driver will mean a little more then the car means that MDB comes into play again. This was the strategy since around midseason. However it seems that MDB and his crew have turned it on even at tracks that they normally wouldn’t. Starting 16th this weekend, MDB offers some place differential upside along with top 10 upside as he finishes his run in the 95 car. MDB was second only to Denny in consecutive lap speed in final practice. This team is riding momentum so why not make some more money off it in the process.
Austin Dillon (DK $6,800 FD $6,500)
Austin has burned me a couple times this year so why not try him one more time. Austin starts 28th on Sunday and between Austin and his brother Ty give us some value with place differential upside. At ISM, he has four top 20 finishes out of five races including an eighth place finish in this race last November. In final practice, he showed speed much faster then his qualifying spot with consecutive lap speed in the top 15.
Any questions please feel free to message me on twitter @davidjr831. We have one more week left after this in the NASCAR schedule so lets finish strong. My final thoughts will be out tomorrow morning with rankings for drivers.
