This weekend the Cup series heads to Charlotte to race at the ROVAL to close out the second round of the playoffs. As if this round of the playoffs wasn’t crazy enough with Talladega and the ROVAL, we are now facing rain racing on Sunday. NASCAR hasn’t raced a points race in the rain since the 50’s and we may now get one in an elimination race. Anyone who watched the Xfinity race earlier today saw what kind of craziness we could be in for on Sunday. The rain got so heavy that it was puddling up and causing cars to slip, slide and hydroplane all race. We saw multiple spin outs and cars throughout the field losing control. I am seeing different views from all over the place about whether NASCAR would force the Cup guys to race if it was raining as much as it did today. Personally, if it is downpouring, I don’t see how NASCAR makes these drivers race especially with so much on the line. However, I think if its a light rain or slightly more, they will race. The hype all week has been about the rain in the forecast and how we will get rain racing. With what we saw today, I think the strategy is going to revolve around place differential and finish position upside. There is already a limited amount of dominator points as is. The question marks that surround how these cars will perform in the rain and how these drivers will handle their cars makes me uncertain about using a lot of the guys up front. I am not suggesting a full on superspeedway strategy, however there are plenty of good drivers starting farther back that you could build a nice and safer cash lineup. As for tournaments, even with all the chaos we saw today we still saw one to two of the top guys in the winnings lineups (AJ, Chase, and Cindric). In the end, I think we still will see the guys who do really well historically at road courses end up near the front at the end. I also think we will see one or two guys who we thought would do really well run into some bad luck due to the conditions. Now if it rains too hard tomorrow and NASCAR decides to postpone it until Monday my strategy will completely change and I will update that in the NASCAR Discord for DFS Karma.
Ryan Blaney (DK $10,900 FD $12,000)
After last weeks accident with Bubba Wallace near the end of the race, Ryan will be starting 24th on Sunday and makes for a decent floor play. In the two races at the ROVAL, Blaney has one win and an 8th place finish. He also had finishes of 5th and 3rd at Sonoma and Watkins Glen last season. Blaney is not in the playoffs and can use strategy to get up to the front and can be more aggressive then some of the other drivers who are trying to protect their playoff spot or are trying to remain in the playoffs. If you want to take the safer route in the top tier Blaney is your guy over the next driver who I am writing up.
Chase Elliott (DK $10,600 FD $13,500)
I believe the more popular play on Sunday will be Chase over Blaney when it comes to cash games and even tournaments. Chase has won the last three road course races run in Cup including the ROVAL last season. He starts 2nd on Sunday and will need some dominator points to help meet value. He has shown the speed on road courses and his ability to dominate at these courses leading 34, 35 and 80 laps at the last three road courses run. The floor is low so there is some risk in playing Chase especially if the weather is bad but the data shows that the risk may be worth the reward.
Jimmie Johnson (DK $9,100 FD $10,600)
With only 5 races left in the season, the chances to play 7 time are dwindling and that may not be a bad thing to most dfs players. However, Sunday presents a great situation for Jimmie in dfs terms. He starts 30th and is a great floor play with some really decent place differential upside. In the two races at the ROVAL, Jimmie has finishes of 8th and 9th. The 8th place finish could have easily been a 2nd place finish but he decided to go for the win and spun taking MTJ with him. I think Jimmie has top 10 upside once again at the ROVAL and that would be just fine by me for my dfs lineups.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,800 FD $11,300)
Bowyer announced that he was retiring after the end of this season and moving into the Fox booth next season. As most of you know I am a huge Clint Bowyer fan but I try to keep that in check when constructing my dfs lineups and giving out dfs advice. I am saying all this before I say the next sentence. I think Clint Bowyer has a chance to win this race on Sunday and needs to win this race in order to make the next round of the playoffs. In the two ROVAL races, Clint has finished 3rd and 4th. He has the best average finishes at road courses over the last 4 seasons at just around 7th place. His success at road courses over his career along with the need to win to move on sets him up as a great tournament play.
Michael McDowell (DK $8,100 FD $9,000)
McDowell is priced up on both sites this week and it is for good reason. For one he starts 31st and has a great floor and good place differential upside. Second, McDowell is a really good road course racer. He has finishes at the ROVAL of 12th and 18th and he finished 10th at the Daytona Road course earlier this season. He also has a lot of experience of racing in the rain from other series he has run in his career. If he were to mimic his results at the Daytona Road course again at the ROVAL on Sunday he would crush his value and with the right circumstances, he might just surprise a lot of people with an even higher finish.
Chris Buescher (DK $6,900 FD $7,000)
There are a lot of great plays in the range between Buescher and McDowell, and I will have exposure to a lot of those plays in my lineups. Below Buescher, the choices get a lot scarier minus a driver here or there. Buescher starts 21st and has some decent finish position upside. He has finished 18th and 17th at the last two ROVAL races but scored a 5th place finish at the Daytona Road course earlier this season. He has an average finish of around 15th over the last four seasons at road courses and hasn’t finished outside the top 20 at a road course since 2016. I think he has a chance at a top 10 on Sunday but I would be pleased if he were to score a top 15 finish.
Any questions message me on twitter @davidjr831 and subscribe below to the NASCAR package for access to final thoughts, core and prop plays.
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